Suspected meteorite crashes into Houston woman's home amid citywide reports of 'boom'

[jemhouston]

https://www.fox26houston.com/news/houst ... 2026-march


Houston sends programs up to space and space strikes back

[Nik_SpeakerToCats]

First Denver, then Houston...

Perhaps the 'Gods of the Copy-Book Headings' are walking-fire onto 'Mar el Lago'...

[jemhouston]

First Denver, then Houston...

Perhaps the 'Gods of the Copy-Book Headings' are walking-fire onto 'Mar el Lago'...

https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/ ... arning1994

[Micael]

These meteor events I think should serve as a reminder that we have pretty limited capabilities to detect, track, and affect incoming meteors/asteroids. I am of a strong opinion that we need to work a lot harder, and spend more resources, in that domain. There are few types of threats out there there that can abruptly manifest as true civilization killers, or human extinction effectuators, and this is one of them.

[Belushi TD]

I was under the impression that true "Extinction Level Event" rocks we actually have a reasonable ability to detect and track. Or did someone defund a program without asking my permission?

If we detect them soon enough, we do have the ability to send something to go bump it. Early enough detection and tracking means a much smaller bump is needed. With SpaceX launching 100+ a year, I think we might have the ability to put a couple thousand pounds of explosive (or a nuke) on top of a rocket and send it out to intercept.

Or do I not understand how orbital mechanics work?

That being said, I agree that more effort should be put into that sort of detection and tracking. Might not be a bad use for NASA after the next boondoggle gets canceled.

Belushi TD

[David Newton]

I was under the impression that true "Extinction Level Event" rocks we actually have a reasonable ability to detect and track.

Correct.

However where there IS a big hole in our knowledge of things is the city killer rocks. Tunguska sized and a bit bigger. Big enough to get low down enough in the atmosphere that when they explode/impact they cause large problems for populated areas but small enough that spotting them is a pain in the neck.

If the Tunguska explosion had taken place over a populated area, or heaven forbid a city then the death toll would have been in the hundreds at the very least and possibly into the tens of thousands if over a large city.

[Nik_SpeakerToCats]

According to 'SpaceWeather', there is a bolide peak around the Spring Equinox.
During March / April, many whatsits arrive, fast and loud...

IIRC, these two were from different directions, of different types.
So, NOT a 'shower'...
https://spaceweather.com/

[jemhouston]

I was under the impression that true "Extinction Level Event" rocks we actually have a reasonable ability to detect and track.

Correct.

However where there IS a big hole in our knowledge of things is the city killer rocks. Tunguska sized and a bit bigger. Big enough to get low down enough in the atmosphere that when they explode/impact they cause large problems for populated areas but small enough that spotting them is a pain in the neck.

If the Tunguska explosion had taken place over a populated area, or heaven forbid a city then the death toll would have been in the hundreds at the very least and possibly into the tens of thousands if over a large city.

If you want a nightmare, say a Tunguska over Moscow or DC during the Cuban Missile Crisis. I'm pretty sure we can tell the difference between a nuke and a meteor. I have less confidence in Russia and China.

[Micael]

I was under the impression that true "Extinction Level Event" rocks we actually have a reasonable ability to detect and track.

Correct.

However where there IS a big hole in our knowledge of things is the city killer rocks. Tunguska sized and a bit bigger. Big enough to get low down enough in the atmosphere that when they explode/impact they cause large problems for populated areas but small enough that spotting them is a pain in the neck.

If the Tunguska explosion had taken place over a populated area, or heaven forbid a city then the death toll would have been in the hundreds at the very least and possibly into the tens of thousands if over a large city.

Yes, however while our ability to detect something is bigger the larger it is, our ability to affect it decreases the bigger it gets. So while we may be able to see our impending doom we may not be able to do anything about it.

[Belushi TD]

At what point do we shift from "can't affect it" to "what happens if we affect it wrong" and then end up with "Don't want to do anything because we might get blamed for a horrible event"?

I'm very much in favor of putting a little more money into the sky search and then making sure we have a plan. Like I said earlier, set up something. Make sure we have a launch capability to put a large amount of high explosives or a nuke, with a guidance system to make an intercept. We're not looking to blow the thing up, just bumping it far enough *insert direction* so that we don't have a seriously unpleasant winter.

Belushi TD

[Micael]

At what point do we shift from "can't affect it" to "what happens if we affect it wrong" and then end up with "Don't want to do anything because we might get blamed for a horrible event"?

I'm very much in favor of putting a little more money into the sky search and then making sure we have a plan. Like I said earlier, set up something. Make sure we have a launch capability to put a large amount of high explosives or a nuke, with a guidance system to make an intercept. We're not looking to blow the thing up, just bumping it far enough *insert direction* so that we don't have a seriously unpleasant winter.

Belushi TD

Problem is the nuke solution has been simulated with various ways to employ it, and while I don’t remember the exact particulars right now, as I recall the general result was that either there wasn’t the desired effect to the degree necessary, or at best you split it into some smaller pieces that were still bad enough together when they impacted that the end result was the same. If we want to affect a very large inbound object in the ”nudge it out of the way” sense we have to catch it quite a long time ahead of impact (years at minimum), then get the nukes to it very far away in the solar system. That’s something we can’t really do yet.

Note as well that we’re now starting to detect some large interstellar objects that transit the solar system, we can’t detect those far ahead of time to even attempt something useful.

My take is we have a very large need to come up with a better plan. I think in the medium term (<50 years) we might want to pre-position some means of affecting such objects in space, ready to set off immediately when a threat is detected.

[Belushi TD]

My understanding is that the vast majority of the "nukes wouldn't work" and would "only fracture the impactor" analyses are performed by people who are profoundly anti nuke.

I may be wrong about this, but I'd prefer 3 x 1,000 ton impactors compared to 1 x 3,000+ ton impactor.

Sure, if you blow it up inside the moon's orbit, there won't be much time for the bits to dissipate, and the end result will look like a shotgun at point blank range, but only a little (in the orbital definition) will provide either enough spread that it won't be an extinction level event, or one or more of the resulting chunks will miss entirely.

Belushi TD

[Micael]

My understanding is that the vast majority of the "nukes wouldn't work" and would "only fracture the impactor" analyses are performed by people who are profoundly anti nuke.

I may be wrong about this, but I'd prefer 3 x 1,000 ton impactors compared to 1 x 3,000+ ton impactor.

Sure, if you blow it up inside the moon's orbit, there won't be much time for the bits to dissipate, and the end result will look like a shotgun at point blank range, but only a little (in the orbital definition) will provide either enough spread that it won't be an extinction level event, or one or more of the resulting chunks will miss entirely.

Belushi TD

Well, what you have to remember is that you don’t get the shockwave effect in space as that requires an atmosphere. What you’re left with is the heat, and if you have a very large target the assessment has been that if you just blow up a nuke adjacent to the surface it doesn’t have enough effect to actually break it up. If you were somehow able to insert it below the surface of the target and have the effect from within then perhaps, but we don’t have a way that I know of to do that.

[Belushi TD]

You mean that Armageddon was not a historical document?

Belushi TD

[gtg947h]

You mean that Armageddon was not a historical document?

wjurk-2966254089.jpg

[Nik_SpeakerToCats]

"Is it a 'solid' lump ? Is it merely a lumpy aggregation ??"
Or, worst, a 'Dirty Snowball' comet ??
With more 'outriders' than a big motorcade ??

Remember, 'Rule of Thumb' is that hypersonic bolides gotta traverse a similar mass before they 'notice'. So, like 'tank vs shell', a 'steeper' approach is more likely to get nearer ground, while a 'slant' is more likely to 'airburst'...

The devil lies in the detail: Spot a big 'lump' early enough, you can change its course. Sufficiently disperse a lumpy aggregation, the components will mostly burn-up or 'blow' individually in upper atmosphere.
Glaziers busy, busy, busy, but strike 'mostly harmless'...

Snag is whacking that 'big lump': At 'crossing' rather than 'rendezvous' relative velocities, getting a 'serious' nuke close enough to be noticed is grossly non-trivial. Remember the cloud of 'stuff' around that comet ? The probe tipped skew ??

You would have to lead each nuke with eg a hefty 'shot-gun' charge of bird-shot and buck-shot ball bearings.

And, as 'crossing' speed plus proximity fusing may not play well together, a 'spar-torpedo' may be needed to ensure enough 'shakes' for complete 'device initiation'...

Getting into finger-breaking territory, but Cold War 'Bunker Busting' deep penetration 'plasma jet' ideas, details mostly redacted, would suit this scenario...