D+16 The Canberra Strike

[Simon Darkshade]

Thanks Bernard. As per Mark’s suggestion, and if it is alright, I might proffer a slightly edited version tonight that incorporates existing national service; doesn’t quite seek to turn the entire nature of Australia on its head; and includes a draft of a Howard address to the country.

If I might repeat my earlier suggestion, should there be a desire for a government of national unity and the Labor leader proposing various stuff, then the only real path to achieve that is having Labour Leader Kim Beazley survive. He’d have the chops, the inclination and the gravitas to do it, with the ALP backbench of the time being very much different to that.

[Andy L]

"‘Can we get more?’

‘No PM. No more physically exist aside from five in museums and they have refused to sell them.’"

A government of national salvation should have no qualms about seizing them. As for the museum bosses . . .

[James1978]

"‘Can we get more?’

‘No PM. No more physically exist aside from five in museums and they have refused to sell them.’"

A government of national salvation should have no qualms about seizing them. As for the museum bosses . . .

A few small issues:
1) None of the five are in Australian museums. They are all in the United States.
2) One of the five is in the National Museum of Naval Aviation.
3) The actual owner of these museum aircraft is . . . the Department of the Navy. They are merely "On Loan from the National Naval Aviation Museum." You can't sell what is merely on loan to you.

So at least pre-war, it was the United States Navy telling Australia "No."
No whether or not Australia has asked again post-Canberra, I couldn't say.

[drmarkbailey]

Thanks Bernard. As per Mark’s suggestion, and if it is alright, I might proffer a slightly edited version tonight that incorporates existing national service; doesn’t quite seek to turn the entire nature of Australia on its head; and includes a draft of a Howard address to the country.

If I might repeat my earlier suggestion, should there be a desire for a government of national unity and the Labor leader proposing various stuff, then the only real path to achieve that is having Labour Leader Kim Beazley survive. He’d have the chops, the inclination and the gravitas to do it, with the ALP backbench of the time being very much different to that.

I'd certainly have absolutely no issues with this at all. IIRC this was quite incomplete with at least 4-5 peoples input already.

So anything that improves the storyline or quality of the story is a great idea!

Cheers: Mark

[Simon Darkshade]

My Sunday plans were skittled by a particularly busy shift, but I’ll try and slap some stuff up this week in the evenings after my placement.

The aim will be to add another nice coat of glazing on the original roast joint that can complement the work of the main cooks.

[Simon Darkshade]

As promised, the first draft of my suggested changes for consideration of Mark, Bernard and the brains trust. I've put my altered suggestions in bolded italics for easier identification:

0551 hours GMT. Raider Nikolaevski Komsomolets, the Tasman Sea.
The AP-3C swooped down from 5,000 feet to 300, then roared past the nondescript little container ship not 250 feet from her. The co-pilot had the hand held camera and held the button down. The camera was one of the new and very expensive high-end Olympus electronic ones, and took continuous high quality stills. The 92 Wing Photographic unit had only moved from conventional to electronic imagery a few years beforehand, but they were normal now. The ship was a small, elderly looking container ship, and only partially loaded. The war had hit international trade hard. It was down 18%, enough to spell disaster for many firms. Oh, the bulk carrier trades were booming, longer routes to avoid war zones and submarine threats meant that: evasive routeing alone meant a 10% longer trip, and that was a straight 10% loss in carrying capacity, so you needed 10% more ships to lift the same amount of ironstone, wheat or coal. Convoy cost you another 10-15% of carrying capacity. And demand for all of these products had increased. Same with oil tankers.

But car carriers? Container ships? Whole markets were just gone. Container traffic through the vast Rotterdam container terminals was already down a quarter and was still in free fall. It was a little difficult to maintain exports when Soviet and NATO tanks were exchanging fire in the factory grounds after their artillery had levelled the place. And everyone was converting car and heavy vehicle facilities to war production. The 2005 Dodge Ram was a very ugly pickup truck: but take the bling off it, strip out the sound deadening, beef up the suspension, dump the shiny rims and add light truck wheels, rip out the radio and speakers and all that stuff, paint it matt green and it became a very useful instant light utility truck for the US and other Armies. And that was just the start of the process.

“The box boat checks.” Said the Tacco into the circuit ten minutes later and twenty miles away. “MIC says that they have no ELINT track for her which seems right as her radar is not moving, and the IMO number and name seem OK. They have a departure for her from Ecuador, she’s en-route Kenya. Standard tramp by the available info.”

They were already commencing a rigging run on the next target.

*

Just like many other ships, MV Gunum Lashad was keeping to safer waters. For just this reason there was a new route now, Panama to the Cape south-about Australia. Even the Cape Horn route was back in fashion.

But this time, they were wrong. MV Gunum Lashad was a genuine Bangladesh registered container ship right enough. Her crew looked like the usual wild Third World mix, and she was scruffy and dirty. You just had to dig deeply indeed through innumerable layers of ownership before you’d ever find out who her real owners were. Only you wouldn’t as you’d be very surprised to wake up dead one sunny morning.

*

A month before the war, she’d taken a cargo of mixed goods in containers to Vladivostok. A routine run for the 1,800TEU tramp and one she’d done many times before. She’d had an engine breakdown there and needed work. Well, it was cheap. Many ships got work done in places where it was cheap.

And she’d left with the usual load of battered containers. The Japanese had seen her, she’d swung by Honolulu to deliver a large volume of milled timber and reefers full of frozen fish, then steamed off for Valparaiso.

No-one had checked the midships container stack. There was no need. They were not being offloaded in Honolulu. In fact they could not be. Her hand-picked crew were a mix of Navy and KGB Border guards originally. Nikolaevski Konsomolets was one of a handful of specialised raiders designed for just two purposes. The first was to make specific political points, the second was to attack specific but lightly or undefended military targets.

Today’s mission was political.

Inside the ‘container’ stack amidships were 24 missile tubes taken from store: they had been removed from everything from submarines to cruisers over the years. Anyone watching – and it was broad daylight ninety miles from the Australian coast – would have seen two sides of the container stack change. On both sides, container sides blew off and fell into the sea. Seconds later, 24 massive five ton missiles rode shrieking boosters into the sky. The ship vanished into the base of a gigantic arch of grey rocket-smoke.

The Shaddocks were on their way. Their target was well within range. The SS-N-3 was obsolescent and slow, it moved at barely nine miles a minute. This just did not matter when the target was both fixed, and undefended. And there was nothing obsolete about their GLONASS guidance and INS.

Aboard the ship, frantic work began. Heavy pins and bolts were removed. They had to dump the false stack and use the cranes to re-erect a similar stack of empty containers. Their CO looked calmly at the activity.

At least it will keep them busy until the missiles arrive, he thought, there’s no chance of getting away with this. Below, his XO was already burning the classified material.

*

The refurbished and now thoroughly modern old E-1T Tracer was on a coastal patrol and exercise, she was the second last of the 11 purchased from UAC in Tucson to come through the S-2GT Tracker, C-1T Trader and E-1T Tracer rebuild facility in Avalon, and like her sisters she handled like a dream with the new 2000hp turboprops. The AN/APS-139(A) radar was a variant of that somewhat elderly radar cycle built for the E-2 Hawkeye. In this case it was a lighter, less capable and more austere version also modified to fit its aerial into the E-1 dome. It included much of the component fit made for the AN/APS-145 currently fitted to USN E-2 Hawkeyes. But for the much lower-end mission profile of the RAN Tracers it was far better than adequate.

Then a normal patrol sortie came to a screaming halt as the radar reported the Shaddocks.


*

“I hate this drive.” Said the Deputy Chief of Navy to his Flag Lieutenant. “The politicians decided Bungendore was a great place to put JOC. Fabulous. Now we have to waste an hour each way between Russell Offices and a converted sheep paddock.”
“With all respect due your august rank, Sir, you say that every week.” She replied with a grin.
“Cheeky sod, you say that every week too.”
“Guilty as charged, Sir!”

His personal mobile rang. Hmm. The better half does not normally ring in work hours unless it’s an emergency. He pressed the button and answered.

“Hi, Love, what’s up?”
“Thank God! Where the f*ck are you?”
“Donna ...”
“Shut up and listen. Pull the car over now and take cover. The city is under attack. I am at Kingston foreshore and Russell is gone. It’s all fire and huge explosions and smoke... sh*t!” He heard a massive explosion then his wife was back on. “That was closer ... Parliament...” The phone dropped out cold. No service at all. The system had gone. He stared at it for a second then yelled at the driver to turn around.

*

Two hours later Rear Admiral Russ Derek was at the Wardroom at HMAS Harman and was in radio comms with Maritime Commander. Harman was untouched and running on its own generators. The NAVCOMMSTA was all the comms there was.

The city burned.

“Helicopter from Nowra will be here in an hour, Sir. Get you and your wife to Sydney, MHQ’s picking up the operational load as best they can. Thank God we never moved the Maritime Intelligence Centre and still have the ops floor there.”
“Thanks, CO. What’s the latest?”
“Changing minute by minute still, Sir. Losses are enormous, at least 20 big missiles, but less than 30. Tracer from Nowra detected them as they crossed the coast, got the warning out but it was too late, and we did not have defences or even an air raid alarm. Trackers from Nowra sank the raider after the Tracer backtracked to it. Converted merchie. About thirty survivors being rescued and ops are on-going, she was called ‘Nikolaev Young Communists'. City’s isolated, Sir. No comms and won’t be for days at least, more likely weeks. Big sections of the town have lost electricity, the Black Mountain tower, the whole communications complex, is just gone, the missile hits brought down the whole tower. It fell on what was left of the facility."

"What's the rest of the city like?"

"The Russell complex is wrecked. R1, R2, DIO, DSD are basically piles of burning rubble. DSD works on three shifts so at least some of the workforce is still alive. The old A, E and F buildings are shattered and burning out. Half of Campbell Park has collapsed after a direct hit on the security organisation’s node and the rest is burning out. Foreign Affairs and Trade was pretty much obliterated by two hits. Maybe three. They hit Treasury and Finance, severe damage and many dead, again the buildings are burning out. The whole complex of government buildings in Barton is smashed. Parliament house took two direct hits and it was a sitting day, but some of them were not there yet."

"Jesus Christ."


"You can say that again. There is some good news amid everything. Prime Minister Howard’s alive as he was having a meeting at The Lodge with Costello and a couple of the senior Ministers, Abbott, Ruddock, forgot who else. The foreign minister’s in the States. Rest are gone, pretty much the entire Opposition is gone, except for Kim Beazley, who was on his way out West to see his father. Might be five or ten per cent of the Parliament left alive. Parliament house – there’s no sign that anyone got out alive as at least one missile detonated inside the building and it’s a concrete structure covered with earth so the pressure wave killed them all I hope. They burned to death otherwise. One giant oven after the fires started, and the whole thing has since collapsed, it’s sending flames 200 feet into the sky. There were maybe 20,000, 25,000 people in all those buildings. I’d be astonished if a quarter of them survived.”

He paused.

“One fell into the city centre, hit the ACT Legislative buildings and complex and flattened it. Think it was a miss on Black Mountain. Most of the ACT government and public service is gone.

“You are Chief of Navy now, Sir. There was a service chief’s meeting in R1 and no-one seems to have gotten out of R1 alive apart from some who were running around the lake or absent on duty. Couple of hits each and the buildings collapsed, then burned. Two missile hits JOC, it’s a hole in the ground now. Looks like Shaddocks with one ton warheads. Looks like at least half of them, maybe all of them, were thermobaric. Hard to explain the ridiculous amount of devastation and the lack of survivors otherwise."

“We’ve been almost completely decapitated. That was a mistake. We are a Federated Commonwealth. It’ll hurt badly, but it’s not even going to slow military operations down."

“And they did not need nukes to do it. Small mercies. With Navy, Sir, I think that a minimum of two thirds of our star rank officers are dead and I would not be surprised if it was four fifths. Governor-General has approved martial law in the ACT but it’s mostly to give legislative approval to seal off the Parliamentary Triangle and back up the Police if they need it. Air Commander is now CAF, Land Commander is now Chief of Army, you are CN and acting CDF after the PM’s phone call.”

The admiral took all of this in before replying.

“Sh*t. And the political implications are endless. The Federal government has essentially been destroyed, and it was the critical functions they hit, defence and foreign affairs, the strategically vital intelligence agencies. We are going to have to collapse the other functions to find the people to even start rebuilding them. Perhaps a silver lining is that the draining of power from the states to the centre has to cease now.” Rear-Admiral Derek replied.

“Yes, Sir, emergency powers act’s been declared by the Governor General.”

“And we know why they hit us.”

“Sir?”

“Look at the message this gives to Bonn, or to London or Paris, or any of the European NATO members for that matter. What they have just done to us they can do to them too.”

***

2113 hours GMT. Canberra, ACT, Australia.
The Prime Minister looked with haunted eyes at the fourteen surviving members of his government, the Governor-General, the Leader of the Opposition and the five surviving members of the Opposition. The Governor-General had been both insistent, and within his powers. They were sitting in what was to him a familiar place, old Parliament House. Many of the windows were blown out and the floor of the PM’s old office sparkled with tiny chips of glass: only the larger chunks had been swept up. The building was otherwise only lightly damaged.

It stank of the bitter stench of things not meant to burn.

“We are all shocked, we are all shaken, and we are all exhausted. The ruins of Parliament House are still burning. But are we agreed on this?”

There were nods around the table, strewn with tea cups and the remains of a couple of sandwich platters a staffer had brought in from Subway. The negotiations had been surprisingly straight forward. It was not like there was any real choice. None of the political parties could possibly rebuild themselves within at least three or four years, or more likely five or six.

“So a Government of National Unity, at least until the 2009 election.”

The Leader of the Opposition just nodded, equally grim.

“There’s nothing else we can do, John. I will not pretend that I don’t have objections, but they are.” He hunted for words. “Remnants of a previous life, really. Everything has got to change now. We're all in this war now and all of us are Australians, together until the end. We still have our differences, but our priorities have been hammered home to us in a way we've never felt before. It's going to be difficult, but we'll back you fully."

"Thank you, Kim. There'll be a time and a place for our differences, when we have won the war. For now, we've got to focus on our immediate tasks - rescue and then rebuilding, building up the ADF so we can be a proper nation in arms and so that this can never happen again, fighting the war to win and putting in place what mechanisms of government and Parliament can be reassembled, in that order."

The Governor-General rumbled his own comment.

"There might well be a time for looking at putting in place something better than what we had yesterday, but for now, there is scope for the States to appoint interim Senators. There really is nothing in the Constitution for anything similar for the House of Reps, but for the immediate future, I can act to prorogue Parliament whilst we confront the immediate emergency. We've got a maximum of a year until we must have a Parliament, so I would advise some form of general election to be held within three months, depending on the exigencies of the war. Until that time, I can appoint you as Ministers of State on the Federal Executive Council. There might be some lawyers who would argue that it isn't strictly constitutional, but there isn't a High Court any more."

The PM nodded his head.

“Absolutely, Sir Michael. An election will have to come, but first things first. We've got to have full war mobilsation with no exceptions, expanding our current system of national service into full blown conscription. To be blunt and no insult intended, I never thought to see such proposals supported by and some coming from the ALP.”

“Times change, Prime Minister.”

Mr. Beazley nodded wearily – they were all exhausted having been up all night.

"We've got to expand the current call up, as far as the training system can take and then some. Men and women alike. We've currently around 200,000 people who turn 18 this year, and the ADF currently only calls up 30,000 of them; we'll need to call up every able bodied one of them, as well as their older compatriots up to 21. Not all of them end up will go into the fighting arms of the Defence Forces - we'll have to sort out how many can actually be accommodated within the current system and facilities - with the rest being channeled into a Civil Defence Force. After what has happened here today, there won't be much opposition."

The new Minister of Defence, Tony Abbott, leaned forward.

"It will actually work out a bit better to have a mass call up rather than have everyone volunteer. We saw the big spike in enlistment after Timor, but there will be lines going right round the blocks tomorrow of young blokes wanting to join up. This way, we get to at least control and filter them, so that the best people go to the best places for them. We don't need our best young engineering students, computer scientists or physicists digging trenches along Cronulla beach or bayoneting sacks at Puckapunyal; we've got to do this intelligently."

"Quite right, Tony. We've got better uses for the best of our young minds. Prime Minister, before yesterday, the world was at war, but it hadn't hit home to Australia. Today, it just became existential. We have to survive first. We are back to that, now, raw survival. I also stand by my proposal that we should also go nuclear - weapons first, and power stations to follow as fast as we can. If we’d been a nuclear power, PM, they would not have dared to do this to us. If that ship had 24 nuclear tipped cruise missiles, Australia would have ceased to exist yesterday.”


How things change. Prime Minister Howard thought.


*

By blatantly appealing to the biases of its audience Fox News had been increasing its audience share of the news networks for some years now. The war had accelerated this trend to just under light speed. By at least wearing their bias on their sleeves they had endeared themselves to many in Western militaries over and above the rest of the media; although to be fair it was mainly the US military who liked Fox, a lot of the European NATO militaries found them incomprehensible. In the Kremlin and at the Lubyanka, they watched Fox, although often largely for entertainment. One of the most amusing things about watching Fox was seeing what innocent person who happened to be slightly left of centre would be accused of being a Soviet spy. Those assigned to watch Fox within the KGB currently had a sweepstake running on how long it would take for the channel to eventually identify a real agent via the law of averages; so far nobody had collected the pot. Meanwhile they hoped that Fox would continue the ‘good work’, as they felt it helped their cause.

Within the GRU there was a school of thought that the ‘talking heads’ that had their own segments on the network must be some form of comedy or satire. After all they were so over the top that they could not really believe some of the stuff they were saying? Even Pravda liked to base its lies on some tiny kernel of truth.

‘And in an update to the attack on Canberra, the Australian Prime Minister has announced the formation of a government of national unity, full mobilisation, and a vast expansion of Australia's military. Jim Alvarez is in our Sydney studio with more ...’

The head of the GRU looked at the screen and shook his head.

“I hope whatever geniuses in the KGB came up with that brilliant idea were watching that. I also hope that they got the message in Bonn.”

His deputy looked at the screen.

“So do I. Because it does not look like they got the message in Canberra.”



--------------------------------------------

- When I get a day off later this week, I'll try to have a crack at John Howard's speech
- I've tried to keep the gist of what was there when possible, whilst eliding the parts that simply don't reflect Australia of 2005 or how known people would react when they can still smell their friends burning
- As said, the inclusion of Kim Beazley allows the ALP to fall into step with a Government of National Unity very effectively, as well as bringing his gravitas, defence knowledge and political experience to the table
- The changes put in place to the 'political talk' reflect what is in the Constitution regarding Parliament and Executive powers; in an unprecedented situation, delaying an general election or series of state based replacement elections for 3 months would certainly fall within the executive powers of the GG
- I left in some scope for future changes/constitutional amendments to governing structures, but in an oblique and low priority way
- The figures for the number turning 18 each year should be close to correct, based on my own research and the Australian population of 2005; the ADF conscription figure may not be accurate, as we did lose a lot of our excellent discussion on the matter from one of the previous two boards
- Nevertheless, it should reflect that there is already some degree of National Service, but now that is being massively expanded to give a much larger ADF, big reserves and a sizeable CD force
- I added in the part about people/young men volunteering as that is perhaps more accurate to how young Aussies would behave, rather than focusing on druggies, peaceniks and the overweight
- My main driving focus was to try and reflect that these were pollies who had been up for a long time, faced an unprecedented event and wouldn't necessarily go off on homilies about the virtues of Singapore's conscription regime
- Mr. Abbott's part was to provide a means to turn the conversation onto atomic weapons

[Bernard Woolley]

Simon, I like those suggestions. I’m more than happy to make them canon. Thanks again.

From the ADF orbat:

Conscription in Australia
- Conscripts serve 12 months on active duty. At the end of that period, they can elect to serve either an additional 12 months active duty, or 18 months active reserve. At the end of their obligation, conscripts pass to the standby reserve until they hit the upper age limit for that.

An expansion of conscription, by both extending the time on active service and numbers conscripted can do stuff like fill out the Army Reserve divisions and brigades. Some of which may be under strength. Will also allow for the expansion of home defence type units and, as mentioned CD units. Also allows for an expanded pool of BCR.

[drmarkbailey]

Certainly fine by me. This piece has any number of inputs and this reads well.

Cheers: Mark

[Simon Darkshade]

We do miss the discussion that was lost with the last boards; it doesn't show up on Wayback for me.

As I recall, we came to some sort of consensus as to the size range for the ADF in terms of personnel.
a.) The RAN would be markedly larger than the 2024 level of 14,745 personnel and 52 vessels, with 90 ships listed in the 2005 orbat, as well as the fleet being described as strapped for manpower. Based on the type of ships employed, and factoring in shore based support, somewhere in the region of 25,000 is not out of the question. RAN reserves would be ~ 5000
b.) The RAAF would similarly be larger than 14,313 active personnel and 309 aircraft, and again likely to be pushing up around 25,000. I would note that the current orbat simply lists the aircraft or types of aircraft in a squadron rather than specifying their number, so it is a tad hard to be exact on how many aircraft TLW Australia has in the kitty. RAAF reserves would be ~ 7500
c.) The Army is going to be a lot larger than ~ 28,000 regulars and 15,000 Army Reserve, or even the 1986 Dibb White Paper era force of 32,000 regulars and 26,000 to 30,000 Reservists. That Defence of Australia structure got staked in the heart by Timor

On the Australian Army
- The current orbat has 7 RAR battalions and 1 Nasho/Australian Rifles battalions in 1st Division, plus 3 cavalry regiments with ASLAV and 3 armoured regiments
- 2nd Division has 3 armoured regiments (with one drawn from Army Reserve lineage), 3 ASLAV cavalry regiments, 9 Nasho rifle battalions and 3 battalions in M113s; this is a labeled a motorised/light infantry division
- 3rd Division has 9 light horse regiments and 4 Nasho battalions all organised under Light Horse Brigades which last had that name in 1919/20. In terms of nomenclature, this is a bit of a throwback on the level of having a British Cavalry Division as part of BAOR, or Scots regiments referred to as 'North British' in the late 1990s
- 6th Division is described as having between 1 and 2 battalions of Australian infantry spread across their 5 brigades. Split the difference and call it 7, all being Nashos, on account of no mentioned of further RAR battalions
- Timor has 3 infantry + 1 cavalry; 23rd Bde 1 RAF + 2 Nasho; and the 24th Bde 1 RAR + 1 Nasho with the other detached to 3rd Division
- 6th Brigade has the Commandos and SAS for some reason, having been re-roled to that end from the Army Reserve
- 4th and 5th Divisions, even with 4th and 5th LH Bdes not counted, have 4 ASLAV + 15 infantry and 4 ASLAV + 15 infantry, all drawn from the Army Reserve
- To my arithmetic, this gives a Regular Army of 36 infantry battalions (9 Regular/RAF and 27 Nasho), 22 cavalry regiments (7 ASLAV cavalry regiments, 9 of whatever the Light Horse Regiments are equipped with, 3 M113 battalions and 3 mounted battalions), 6 armoured regiments, 2 regional regiments and 10 defence battalions; and an Army Reserve of at least 8 ASLAV + 30 infantry
- There is still some tweaking to be done in my view, but that is a separate discussion. (see below)

Long story short, the size of the Australian Army is going to be around 50,000 Regulars and 40,000 conscripts pre WW3, plus the Army Reserve being around 45,000 men and a further 120,000 being in the standby reserve.

In light of a mobilised strength of 135,000 Army, 30,000 RAN and 35,000 RAF, we would already be looking at a pre Canberra attack manpower of 200,000.

How many more would then be mobilised/called up?

I would say that the call up would consist of everyone in the standby reserve not yet mobilised, plus as many ~ 20% of the total 18-25 year old age bracket; call it 120,000 of each age, with more males than females getting the call at this point. Call it 480,000 from ~ 2.5 million between those ages.

Total number wise, that gets us to ~ 600,000, or getting towards the vicinity of WW2 when we add it to that 200,000 number, albeit from a much larger population base than 1939-45.

Of those 480,000 young people, not all will be handed an SLR and take a walk in the light green, as it were. Some will be channeled into government work, research or specialist areas, based on testing, school scores, aptitude tests and more. The ADF will take ~10,000 each for the RAN and RAAF and the Army getting around 100,000.

d.) The two Regular, one Home Defence, one Pacific/Forward Defence and two Army Reserve divisions would be fully reinforced by ~40,000 personnel (Standby/Ready Reserve)
e.) On the old board, I remember Mark making reference to having 7, 8, 9 and 10 Division 'marching on paper' after our discussions. They would be activated and filled out with 20,000 personnel each (10,000 Standby/Ready Reserve + 10,000 Conscripts)
f.) A fair few further Defence Battalions for effectively static defence would be mobilised and progressively deployed (~20,000 men)
g.) A dozen or so battalions to be put together as corps troops/regional reserves (~20,000 men)
h.) Training and support units will need to be filled up to compensate for men siphoned off elsewhere (~20,000 men)
i.) As suggested, battle casualty replacements (~ 20,000 Standby/Ready Reserve)

If we grant that ~ 20,000 will be creamed off the top for specialist roles and 20,000 will not be suited to more than a desk/cleaning job, that leaves us around 320,000 young men and women for the Civil Defence/Home Guard role, which for want of a better term, I'll just label as the CMF/Citizen Military Forces. They would be the back up/home service force to the Army and Army Reserve, drawing on the lineage of past Australian units.

It is likely to some degree that the Army will be overwhelmed with young and not so young men trying to join up, even in 2005.

This would need to be controlled, as the nation still needs to work and run, and ~4% of the population in the ADF is right on the cusp of causing all manner of 'interesting' issues.

(On the orbat tweaking mentioned above: I think that the numbers could be bumped around a bit, with 1, 2, 3 and 4 Divisions as the active component and 5 and 6 as the AR one; that there is scope for fewer units in certain brigades and fewer brigades in particular divisions; that this in turn would fill some of the unnamed units slapped in as place holders; and that there is scope for at least one further RAR battalion. In the last case, they could end up playing a storyline role in the aftermath of Canberra.)

[Eaglenine2]

Nasho is National Service formations?

[Simon Darkshade]

Yes, that was the Australian nomenclature in the 60s and 70s and would likely be again.

[drmarkbailey]

The RAN will be larger in manpower terms than this.

a.) The RAN would be markedly larger than the 2024 level of 14,745 personnel and 52 vessels, with 90 ships listed in the 2005 orbat, as well as the fleet being described as strapped for manpower. Based on the type of ships employed, and factoring in shore based support, somewhere in the region of 25,000 is not out of the question. RAN reserves would be ~ 5000

The threat levels in TLW-verse are such that its unlikely that the last vestiges of RANR will be terminated by VADM Hudson in 1989. Yes, I realise this is pre-POD. The remnant is not much by that date. Lets say that it goes ahead and then we go into the early 90s: there's a rapid ramp-up of threat and that will reverse Hudson's decision.

https://seapower.navy.gov.au/brief-hist ... al-reserve
When the War ended 592 officers were serving in the Special Branch, while the total Reserve force numbered 2863 officers and 26,956 ratings. This represented 80% of the personnel serving in the RAN.

By the mid-1980s the Australian Naval Reserve had three component parts, two of which - officers on the Emergency List (RANEM) and sailors in the RAFR - comprised ex-permanent naval forces. But although these two components contributed over two-thirds of Australian Naval Reserve strength, they were largely latent forces with no training obligation. Administratively there were myriad different reserve categories and too many ineffective personnel on the many lists, while in structural terms the Reserves had been slow to evolve, and still reflected the requirement to man an expanded fleet in a general war. Government policy, however, sought the more effective employment of the Reserve forces in routine and contingent operations.

In 1986, the then Chief of Naval Staff, Vice-Admiral Michael Hudson, ordered the wearing of reserve insignia to be discontinued as a visible indication of the ‘All of One Company’ concept. In 1989, Vice Admiral Hudson accepted a Reserves Policy Paper which stressed the total Navy concept and further encouraged the explicit integration of the Reserve force within the broad context of the RAN’s roles. Integration resulted in the closure of the Port Divisions in the early 1990s and a subsequent decline in the number of ‘career reservists’ as personnel were increasingly sourced from ex-RAN members. The exceptions were generally those reservists who specialised as divers, musicians, naval control of shipping officers and intelligence officers, who continued to be recruited directly from civilian occupations.

In 1999, a final phase of integration was achieved with direct Permanent Naval Force (PNF) management of Reserves under national schemes of complement. This resulted in the Reserves being more accurately described as part-time members of the RAN rather than as a force brought together to provide a surge capability in times of defence emergency.

In 2005, the Naval Reserve comprised two lists of members - Active Reservists who were working part-time in the RAN and Standby Reserves who were available to work from time to time with the RAN but had no ongoing obligations to do so. Reservists came from all walks of life and from all parts of Australia. Some were former full-time RAN personnel while others had undertaken all their training on a part-time basis. Some Reserves worked in formed Reserve units, such as Diving Teams, Bands and Maritime Trade Operations; while others belonged to distinct Navy branches (Medical Officers, Seamen, Engineers) but worked individually in RAN ships or establishments alongside PNF personnel. The Director General Reserves - Navy headed the Reserve Directorate, at a national level, as part of Naval Headquarters.

I propose that the Port Divisions won't all close in the 1990s and that the RANR will re-emerge within the Total Navy concept (TN). The critical issue is the ability to recruit directly in to the Reserves (right now, only MTO, specialists like doctors and lawyers, and musicians can be directly recruited into the reserves), Essentially the RAN has no reserves at all these days, only ex-PNF members, a sort of partial skill-salvage reserve, with only 800-1200 rendering significant effective service annually.

In TLW I'd suggest that by around '93-95, the problem of insufficient manpower reaches the internal level of a Very Serious Problem. This would seem to me to be part of the 'hollow force' reaching crisis around then.

The TN model can fairly simply be adapted to give the same functional outcome as the older RANR model. All it actually needs is the ability to recruit directly in to the reserve, just like the RAAF - and that's the model I'd suggest. Set up the remaining old reserve bases from say 1994-98 (Encounter at Adelaide, Moreton at Brisbane, Mindari in Sydney at the Woolloomooloo berths (it was offered to Navy for a low price around this time) and probably Rushcutter as well, last is Lonsdale on the Yarra river in Melbourne.

This will all take something like 5-6 years to do and from there rapid expansion would be easy.

I think that the 5000 reserve figure would be a good one to use into the late 90s, but from '98 that would have to expand to 10,000 at least by the very early 00s, and probably to 15,000 by the time 2004 comes around. After that it would have to double again to do all the port defence and force protection missions required.

By then Ladava (Milne Bay) and Seeadler (Manus) Maitland (Newcastle) Magnetic (Townsville) etc etc would also be required.

Cheers: Mark

[Bernard Woolley]

Just thinking that the main limit on expansion is going to be equipment. The ADF is going to be well served in basic stuff like uniforms, small arms etc. What with National Service going on. However, big stuff like armoured vehicles might be an issue.

[Simon Darkshade]

I’m not sure that even the boots, uniforms and small arms will be easy to cover. There were 222,773 SLRs produced by Lithgow SAF and ~ 85,000 F88 Austeyrs; even if all of the former were retained and none lost or damaged, it will still fall majorly short.

I can’t speak precisely to uniforms etc, but without a huge mobilisation preparation order around the time of Timor, there won’t be sufficient uniforms for multiple hundreds of thousands of men and women. Boots would be similar; the textile, clothing and footwear industry in Australia got wiped out by globalisation in the 1990s. This is one reason, among others, that I felt it might be better to temper the rhetorical flourish of a ‘permanent nation in arms’ and all that.

The 160,000 ‘post Canberra group’ might be able to be armed in basic terms. Arty, vehicles, mortars, radios, webbing and all of that stuff will be in short supply already, as a 90,000 strong Army + 45,000 Army Reserve + 120,000 in the Standby Reserve are going to chew through every bit of the stocks accrued in the 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s.

Rebuilding a full sized Army when you’ve been used to derisory levels is costly and takes time.

[Jotun]

Just thinking that the main limit on expansion is going to be equipment. The ADF is going to be well served in basic stuff like uniforms, small arms etc. What with National Service going on. However, big stuff like armoured vehicles might be an issue.

Maybe we could take a leaf out of @ and have Australia enter an armament cooperation like they did with Rheinmetall for the Lynx platform, building for themselves AND delivering vehicles to the partner country in question…Australia is vast enough that the plant(s) in question could be placed somewhere (almost) unreachable for air attack.

[Simon Darkshade]

The bulk of the country is sparsely populated for a reason. There might be potential for facilities in Wagga Wagga, Albury-Wodonga, Mildura and maybe Dubbo in the Eastern States; there aren't any appreciable inland population centres suitable for industrial facilities in SA or WA. You'd want a railway for moving the vehicles to necessary bases.

[drmarkbailey]

Hi gents

Of course such an expansion won't be easy. Let's start in the mid-90s with the gradual expansion of the reserves. That will be OK from the basics level (uniforms etc) from internal resources.

When the sharp expansion happens there are actually a goodly amount of Oceanian resources available. I'd see, for example, the Fijian clothing industry getting large orders for uniforms and webbing. Same with ASEAN, Vietnam has a huge textile industry. I'd assess that we'd go PACFORUM first, ASEAN second.

Equipment is the real kicker.

Starting with small arms, we had a stock of L1A1, F1 etc in reserve, and we'd look to the market for any more of those. So from the start we have 3 basic ammo types, 7.72, 5,53 and 9mm.The .303 reserve stock was disposed of in 1988-89. If someone's still making FN-FAL, then they can make L1A1. Lithgow made 222,773 rifles produced from 1959 to 1986. Quite likely that much if not all of the tooling still exists a decade or so later. In that case, setting up a new manufacturer using that tooling would be a very good idea.

I'd suggest that expanding F88 production would be the Australian priority. I'd look very closely at putting the Owen SMG back into local production specifically for second-line use: it's very simple to make, and cheap, while being exceptionally reliable and proven.

Yes, this is another industrial capability development matter. Making Owen and L1A1 in a new facility trains the industrial workforce for more advanced weapons manufacturers. I'd actually set that up in either Newcastle or Wollongong, and in this period it's Newcastle by a country mile as the steelworks will not close in TLW. So the BHP steelworks in Newcastle is still open. Having become one of the largest employers in Australia with a workforce that peaked at 11,000 in 1981, it closed on 30 September 1999 and it was a very narrow decision, based on not investing $20 million in a new alloying mill there.

That will be a good way to introduce a new manufacturer, and I'd pick Lysaghts in Newcastle, the company is a subsidiary of BHP by then. Newcastle also has much more technical training capability than anywhere else in Australia, having been the national heavy industry node for over a century.

Rebuilding the RANR in some form will also require kit, but much of it is commercial, and very cheap. I'd get a pair of GPV (similar to HMAS Bass and Banks - basically small coastal freighters in the 250-400 ton range) for each base as it opens and building them locally. Then move in to boom defence vessels and building/converting AMS and MSA. Any seaward defence launches can simply be the same as the current Guardian class, which would just be the replacement design for the Pacific Forum PC as they were in real life. They would cost (in 2000 dollars) about 6-8 million each, less in quantity. (Current cost is about $15m each)

These are basic security and local patrol craft, a modern version of the old HDML and with the same role. I'd suspect that they would have a 20mm and .50cal armament initially, with modern 'Molins' 57mm added later. They have no need for a combat system.

Just like the Pacific War, there's an enormous and unappreciated requirement for small craft, and it's not the Navy who's the major requirements driver, it's the Army.

This is 'Corbett 101', the Army is the national 'disposal force': according to Corbett, national activities using what force the island state can afford to dispose away from national defence of the island state itself can generate disproportionate enemy responses “these operations were distinguished not so much by the nature of the object as by the fact that we devoted to them, not the whole of our military strength, but only a certain part of it which was known as our “disposal force.”[Some Principles p.52] His best example is when the RN delivered Wellington’s modest expeditionary army of 50,000 men to the Portuguese shores in 1809, the Peninsular theater was of no particular strategic value for London. The operation’s main goal was to support and buildup the local resistance, diverge forces Napoleon otherwise needed in Central Europe, and create a constant strain on the French.

What complicates this for Australia is that yes, it's an island, yet in geologistic terms it's an archipelago, the deserts are (in strategic terms) the same as shoal water or coral-choked seas. So the 'disposal force' is the expeditionary force but in two layers. The first is the AIF-scale expeditionary forces. But the second part (as in WWII) is the large force scattered across the north in defensive postures (as if defending the scattered islands of an archipelago) from Cocos-Keeling to New Britain, but mostly focussed on Broome, Darwin, Thursday Island, Port Moresby etc

Australian war production in TLW will have a slow buildup, as discussed above, yet with Konfrontasi II it will be reaching a peak by about 2004. I can see significant Australian exports of munitions, for example (stuff like155mm ammo especially).

NOIA Group (formed 1973) will be important to this. I can see them making 155mm and 105mm ammo by the end of the 90s, as well as expanding small arms ammo production. They'll team with Rheinmetall much earlier in TLW.

There will also be socio-political impacts and quite serious ones. A good example is the effect of those profiting from the eco-apocalypse doomsaying of the people who make large sums of money from such millenarianism. Their schtick it to forecast doom and catastrophe (always highly marketable), and use the sensationalism to make money. The modern variants of this (it's an ancient phenomena) reduced energy availability and send prices soaring. Look at the UK and Australia (the UK 'invested' over 500 billion pounds into unreliable intermittent energy generation 2012-2023 and installed over 100GW of additional nameplate generation - only to have all of that generate 26% less electricity in 2023 than it did in 2012. Which is why it de-industrialised and saw power prices quintuple. We have been as stupid and gullible here. And yes, the CCP has helped foment the millenarian movements helping to drive this - while the PRC has lowered electricity prices through massive construction of 1,300 coal and gas fired powerplants. Oh, and 'made a fortune by selling solar panels and wind turbines to the stupid round eyes', to quote one of the senior people in an open-mike comment.

None of that millenarian nonsense will happen in TLW.

So this implies that the UK and Australian industrial bases will be much stronger.

I have little idea on how to model that at this stage.

Cheers: Mark

[James1978]

If our premise is that Australia has effectively been at war since TLW 1999-2000ish, wouldn't a lot of these issues have been addressed in the intervening five years? I mean of course not overnight, but I'd think the issues were at least identified and thought about sufficiently that the government post-Canberra Strike would have a good idea how quickly they could implement plans.

RE: Boots & Uniforms
I tend to agree with Mark. While domestic sourcing would be ideal, there are plenty of countries that would jump at large boot and uniform orders.

RE: Small Arms
Historically, what kind of rate was Lithgow pumping out F88s? Are we talking minimum economic rate? How many could they pump out annually if they could get to three shifts?

Can Australia make an emergency buy direct from Steyr while production ramps up?

RE: Artillery
In the backroom when we were hashing out the ADF ORBAT, post-1999 Australia put the L118 back into production.
And don't forget that in TLWverse, Australia is license building the G6 SPH.

Note that the Defense Battalions have old M101/M2A2 attached. We never pinned down just how many guns are still around, but at least 90.

Additional M198s from US stocks (probably ex-USMC) are possible pre-war. Cheaper than M777s.
Once war kicks off and the US starts planning for new combat units and replacing losses? That's a bit dicier.

More US sourced M109A6s should be possible. Not in huge numbers, but a few more battalions should be doable.

RE: Vehicles
Mark can correct me if I'm misremembering.

Bushmaster production became more a question of how many ADI could build and how quickly.
Trucks and land rovers should be within Australia's domestic capability.

I know we talked about Australia getting a license for the Ratel when the got the G6 and Roikat licenses and using the Ratel as the primary variant basis. I don't recall the final decision on that.

Australia already has a domestic depot/upgrade capability for tracked vehicles. In @, they upgraded M113s, and we can add Centurions and Yerambas in TLWverse. The US likely has fields of surplus M113s, so that's an option.

RE: Conscription
If national service has been going since say 1999/2000ish, I would think a lot of these capabilities would have built up in the interim?
And presumably the early call up classes would have been smaller and grown over time as the ability to train, house and equip larger numbers grew?

Another thing, national service can mean many things. If could mean working in construction building vital infrastructure, like new barracks or rail lines at home.

RE: Placing industry out out of range of air attack
If we're just worried about Indonesian Flankers, then it's quite doable.
The TLWverse hair pulling comes when Soviet Backfires start exercising out of Indonesian bases. Ages ago, I played with the range rings in Google Earth to see what a Backfires combat radius out of Indonesian bases looks like. There is a safe zone in the far southeast and Tasmania, but that's just if they attackers are dropping iron. Add cruise missiles into the equation, and nowhere is safe.

[Simon Darkshade]

I'd say that in those 5 years, there will be a big enough task getting the (90,000 Regular + 45,000 Army Reserve), ~ 30,000 RAN and 35,000 RAAF fully armed and supported. On top of that, there would then be the ~ 120,000 of the Standby Reserve to arm, equip, support and even house.

After Canberra, we are looking at 480,000 to 500,000 more, based on the type of mobilisation discussed. Those are numbers not even contemplated since the early 1950s, and certainly not actively catered for since WW2. To put it into context, it is the equivalent of increasing the US Army to 2.5 million, not counting the ARNG's ~ 480,000 the USAR's ~ 600,000 and the retired reserves ~ 600,000. The US would have more scope to do it, but it wouldn't be a particularly simple task.

Boots and Uniform: With 5 years worth of prep, it should be possible to have 250,000-300,000 on top of what was already in stock, which is an improvement, but not nearly enough.

Small Arms: No idea and haven't been able to find any data, but extremely interested in anything that comes up, both for this scenario and others. I would thing that Steyr purchases from ~ 2001-2004 would be doable.

Arty: Very difficult to find data on Australian artillery production capacity, as we haven't really built any since the 1940s or 50s per se. I'll be interested in how this develops as above.

Vehicles: Australia in 2000, for example, produced 323,649 cars and 23,473 commercial vehicles. The Army currently has 2536 heavy and medium trucks from Rheinmetall, 2268 G-Wagens, 1098 Hawkei, 763 Bushmasters and 6000 commercial vehicles and trailers for its strength of ~ 29,000 Regular and 16,000 Army Reserve. This would suggest a need for ~ 8000 heavy and medium trucks, ~ 10,000 Land Rovers, 2500 Bushmasters and 20,000 commercial vehicles and trailers for a total force 3 times that size in ~ 2004/05.

On top of that, there would need to be vehicles for the standby reserve, and then the prospect of the post Canberra Strike fully mobilised Army is going to knock those numbers for six.

Conscription: Yes, but also in a way no. Yes that there would be much, much more capacity than the pure voluntary military days, and growing capacity at that. No in that full mobilisation is going to be a whole different equation.

What the USA, Britain and Australia have done pre-Canberra is called up all of their various reserves and, in the case of the USA, started the Selective Service pipeline going. Australia is now o'erleaping what any other non-German or non-frontline Western country has done. The only real example I can think of from history is some of the Israeli mobilisations, many of which have been ratcheted down due to the conflicts being over or the need to release manpower for elsewhere.

It isn't impossible, but it will be difficult, and there will be a lot of 'delicious' friction.

Industry out of Range: These people have suffered enough; sending them to Tassie is just inhuman.

I'll have a brief bit of time tonight to re-read and factor in Mark's earlier response.

[drmarkbailey]

Hi Gents - comments below

If our premise is that Australia has effectively been at war since TLW 1999-2000ish, wouldn't a lot of these issues have been addressed in the intervening five years? I mean of course not overnight, but I'd think the issues were at least identified and thought about sufficiently that the government post-Canberra Strike would have a good idea how quickly they could implement plans.

Yes, agreed. There's been a medium-intensity war with spikes up to high level since 1999-2000. So yes, a lot of these would have been addressed.

RE: Boots & Uniforms
I tend to agree with Mark. While domestic sourcing would be ideal, there are plenty of countries that would jump at large boot and uniform orders.

Yes, and a lot of this will be used to leverage into the PACFORUM states to freeze out the CCP and the CPSU.

RE: Small Arms
Historically, what kind of rate was Lithgow pumping out F88s? Are we talking minimum economic rate? How many could they pump out annually if they could get to three shifts?

I just do not know. I can say it would be minimum economic rate when set up, so one shift per day. So they'd go to 2 shifts (take at least 6 months) then 3, while simultaneously expanding the supply chain and the plant itself.

Can Australia make an emergency buy direct from Steyr while production ramps up?

I think they'd play it canny and order from Steyr that which was at the supply chain chokepoints in Australia. I other words, parts. To be frank, Europeans are not really reliable suppliers, and a lot of their equipment is not good in that it has serious design issues and support problems.
The idea of a big buy is probably not on the cards - a number of smaller buys to 'top off' Australian production IF they can build to Australian quality standards. (Let us not talk about European helicopters!)

Owen 2000

The more I think about re-introducing the Owen-plus gun in production as a way to train workers and build a new supplier, the more I like it. This would be a very good way to bring NIOA into mass production of useful small arms. I never used Owen, I used F1 and it's a good gun, the rear sight was too fragile, though.
A new Owen would be a perfect second-line weapon for all the VAP personnel on-continent, both military and paramilitary, and for the reserves. An initial fit of L1A1 and F1/ Owen-2000 for the reserves would be a decent range-hitting power/ fire volume mix for all the VAP and on-continent uses. A LOT are needed in TLW. I think you'd get maybe 3 Owen-2000 for the price of one F88.

9mm ammo is much easier and cheaper to make than 5.56 or 7.62.
I'd suggest an initial order for 100,000 of them.

RE: Artillery
In the backroom when we were hashing out the ADF ORBAT, post-1999 Australia put the L118 back into production.
And don't forget that in TLWverse, Australia is license building the G6 SPH.

Yep.

Note that the Defense Battalions have old M101/M2A2 attached. We never pinned down just how many guns are still around, but at least 90.

Additional M198s from US stocks (probably ex-USMC) are possible pre-war. Cheaper than M777s.
Once war kicks off and the US starts planning for new combat units and replacing losses? That's a bit dicier.

More US sourced M109A6s should be possible. Not in huge numbers, but a few more battalions should be doable.

I think this makes good sense.

RE: Vehicles
Mark can correct me if I'm misremembering.

Bushmaster production became more a question of how many ADI could build and how quickly.
Trucks and land rovers should be within Australia's domestic capability.

Yes to both. We still have a car industry in TLW....

I know we talked about Australia getting a license for the Ratel when the got the G6 and Roikat licenses and using the Ratel as the primary variant basis. I don't recall the final decision on that.

I think that was a yes, with a locally built vehicle range from the Rooikat and Ratel design bases. We never defined what they'd be. I think that we settled on something like this:
Rooikat 105
Ratel IFV (IIRC with 25mm Bushmaster?)
Ratel Command
Ratel Logistic (8 wheeler)
Max parts and systems commonality between all these vehicles and Bushmaster. For example, Bushmaster has a 300hp diesel, Ratel a 275hp diesel: No reason the Australian Ratels can't have the same engine, suspension and whatnot. Just makes sense.

Australia already has a domestic depot/upgrade capability for tracked vehicles. In @, they upgraded M113s, and we can add Centurions and Yerambas in TLWverse. The US likely has fields of surplus M113s, so that's an option.

AGreed - they'll be busy with all sorts of AFV!

RE: Conscription
If national service has been going since say 1999/2000ish, I would think a lot of these capabilities would have built up in the interim?
And presumably the early call up classes would have been smaller and grown over time as the ability to train, house and equip larger numbers grew?

Another thing, national service can mean many things. If could mean working in construction building vital infrastructure, like new barracks or rail lines at home.

Agreed! Lots of people won't make the military physicals, so everything from the above to State Emergency Services.

RE: Placing industry out out of range of air attack
If we're just worried about Indonesian Flankers, then it's quite doable.
The TLWverse hair pulling comes when Soviet Backfires start exercising out of Indonesian bases. Ages ago, I played with the range rings in Google Earth to see what a Backfires combat radius out of Indonesian bases looks like. There is a safe zone in the far southeast and Tasmania, but that's just if they attackers are dropping iron. Add cruise missiles into the equation, and nowhere is safe.

Yes, agreed.

Cheers: Mark

Addition 24/12

It looks like Lithgow was producing something like 6000-7000 F88 PA during the 90s. They also produce the Minimi MG and (I was trained on and have used both) these are of very high quality. During the 1990s in Darwin during a KANGAROO exercise I had the good fortune to spend some quality range time with some other forces rifles.
The early 1990s L85A1 was a bloody awful piece of crap. Shoddily built, it rusted rapidly in the tropics, jammed all the time in dusty and muddy conditions both (quite an achievement) you had to take the mag out when moving around the range as the bloody catch release was weak and badly placed, so the mag kept falling out. What loony decided to make the mag out of non-aircraft-grade aluminium? I could go on but you get the point (understand that they fixed it later in the 90s and that the A2 is a very good weapon).
The USMC had the M16A2 (IIRC) and it was obviously a very mature, solid rifle. I thought it a bit over-engineered, the marines said this bought reliability. Nice rifle.
M16S1, same.
SS1-M1 the marine version) was, I thought, the best of the foreign 5.56mm, the Indonesians did a really nice job on that rifle. They had a few SB1 but I did not get to fire that.
And... I still preferred the L1A1 as it was 7.62mm! Hey, I'm old and it's what I originally trained on.

All of that said, there was one universal comment on the F88 - in manufacturing terms it was considered to be the highest-quality rifle of all of them. Obviously, that was a subjective view. Well, except for the poor bloody Brits with their piece of crap.