Search found 271 matches

by MKSheppard
Tue May 13, 2025 2:46 am
Forum: History and Warfare
Topic: The Strategic Air Command by GEN LeMay (Jan 1954)
Replies: 0
Views: 394

The Strategic Air Command by GEN LeMay (Jan 1954)

EDIT -- This appears to be substantially the same speech that was given to the representatives of all services at SAC Headquarters, Offutt Air Force Base, Omaha, on 15 March, 1954 by SAC's Deputy Director of Ops. Basically the "Smoking Radiating Ruin at the end of Two Hours" Speech. Compar...
by MKSheppard
Mon May 12, 2025 11:03 am
Forum: Essays
Topic: The Big One's Pre-Historic Threads
Replies: 8
Views: 2131

Re: The Big One's Pre-Historic Threads

It’s very much a golden age of not just knowledge creation but knowledge dissemination. I'm currently using the French Mistral AI -- right mix of pricing $14/month and free testing to see if my use case worked to transcribe stuff I've had for at least 10-12 years, but the quality was too poor to OC...
by MKSheppard
Sun May 11, 2025 5:35 pm
Forum: History and Warfare
Topic: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD
Replies: 62
Views: 4213

Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

From a Soviet military journal circa July 1961 https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/1962-04-30.pdf During 1960, SAC conducted four large exarcises, Full Play - February 1960; Sky Shield - September 1960; Big Play - October 1960; Full Coordination - November 1960, with the actual participation of up ...
by MKSheppard
Fri May 09, 2025 1:43 am
Forum: History and Warfare
Topic: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD
Replies: 62
Views: 4213

Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB130/SIOP-21.pdf

17 January 1961 guidance:
NSTAP prescribes 75% assurance of delivery at each bomb release line of the necessary weapons to achieve the specified levels of damage to targets on the NSTL.
by MKSheppard
Fri May 09, 2025 12:55 am
Forum: History and Warfare
Topic: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD
Replies: 62
Views: 4213

Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

This is the SIOP that went "hot" in August 1962 and was active during the Cuban Missile Crisis... https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb236/SIOP-63.pdf HISTORY OF THE JOINT STRATECIC TARGET PLANNING STAFF: PREPARATION OF SIOP-63 HISTORY & RESEARCH DIVISION HEADQUARTERS STRATEGIC AIR ...
by MKSheppard
Fri May 09, 2025 12:28 am
Forum: History and Warfare
Topic: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD
Replies: 62
Views: 4213

Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

I'm not sure we are ever going to have the full answer when the aircraft as opposed to space plane based component of SAC or its successor is still in business. Although thinking along these lines a part of me thinks the answer is probably less than everyone assumed. https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAE...
by MKSheppard
Mon May 05, 2025 10:30 pm
Forum: Essays
Topic: The Nuclear Game(s) by Stuart
Replies: 21
Views: 17663

Re: The Nuclear Game(s) by Stuart

So lets look at a typical targeting problem in an average sort of strike. We are going to give the capital of Outer Loonyistan a really thorough seeing to. Now we don't just explode a bomb in the center of the city and say bye-bye. Believe it or not that won't do any real good. Initiate a 1 megaton...
by MKSheppard
Mon May 05, 2025 9:53 pm
Forum: History and Warfare
Topic: Sentinel ICBM will need mostly new Silos...
Replies: 24
Views: 1550

Sentinel ICBM will need mostly new Silos...

https://breakingdefense.com/2025/05/air-force-now-expects-sentinel-icbms-will-predominantly-need-new-silos/ Air Force now expects Sentinel ICBMs will ‘predominantly’ need new silos “Part of the requirements, initially — ten years ago when this program was started — was to reuse the holes, the missil...
by MKSheppard
Sun May 04, 2025 6:20 am
Forum: Essays
Topic: The Nuclear Game(s) by Stuart
Replies: 21
Views: 17663

Re: The Nuclear Game(s) by Stuart

A slightly different version of Stuart's "Lectures" was recovered from the Fallout 3 forums of all places: https://www.giantbomb.com/fallout-3/3030-20504/forums/nuclear-warfare-101-wall-of-text-alert-2999/ =========================== From: "Stuart Slade" <shiva06804@yahoo.com> Da...
by MKSheppard
Sun May 04, 2025 5:55 am
Forum: History and Warfare
Topic: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD
Replies: 62
Views: 4213

Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

"The SAC Alert System 1956-1970" says: "When operating at peak strength during the [Cuban] crisis, approximately 65 airborne B-52s and 240 nuclear weapons were 'target effective' at any given time." In "Strategic Air Command Operations in the Cuban Crisis of 1962" the c...
by MKSheppard
Sun May 04, 2025 2:35 am
Forum: History and Warfare
Topic: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD
Replies: 62
Views: 4213

Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

You've forgotten Victor and Valiant and Vulcan in the bomber calculations. Plus whatever the French had. Well, the context of that post was reconstructing data from WSEG-50, which is what was handed to McNamara in 1960, and helped form a large basis of his decisions for the later 1960ies; so the V ...
by MKSheppard
Sat May 03, 2025 4:36 pm
Forum: History and Warfare
Topic: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD
Replies: 62
Views: 4213

Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

The primary land-based bomber weapons for the 1960s were, per Chuck Hansen's SWORDS OF ARMAGEDDON -- This had to be done to figure out the megatonnage deliverable by bombers to enable cost/efficiency calculations. RAF/US Canberras 1700~ Mark 7 Fission (1952-1967) (8/19/22/30/31/61 KT, 1600 lbs) B-58...
by MKSheppard
Sat May 03, 2025 4:00 am
Forum: History and Warfare
Topic: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD
Replies: 62
Views: 4213

Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

kdahm wrote: Fri May 02, 2025 8:41 pm All of that is very true. I don't know has been declassified in the last 25 years, and I don't know what was actually classified before then.
Even wikipedia has declassified info now; namely a 30 July 1963 JCS briefing, with some interesting slides
by MKSheppard
Sat May 03, 2025 2:24 am
Forum: History and Warfare
Topic: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD
Replies: 62
Views: 4213

Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

BTW, I love it when censors screw up and allow me to recover totally obliterated data with some precision by scaling off said graph.
WSEG-50_Reconstructed.png
by MKSheppard
Fri May 02, 2025 8:35 pm
Forum: History and Warfare
Topic: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD
Replies: 62
Views: 4213

Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Stuart has heavily implied, if not outright said, that all of the publicly available numbers for CEP on US systems were a bunch of hokum. The actual ones were heavily, heavily classified, and anyone who did have access to them wasn't talking. I can't help but wonder how much of Stu's POV/worldview ...
by MKSheppard
Fri May 02, 2025 7:59 pm
Forum: History and Warfare
Topic: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD
Replies: 62
Views: 4213

Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

I'd be very careful about using those numbers for anything but casual comparisons. The source that Stumpf cited for MM3 CEP (and MM2) etc was: "History of the Strategic Air Command, FY1970" Volume II - Narrative, Redacted Copy, DNSA, NT00923 pp. 274-275. Snippets of this study are online,...
by MKSheppard
Thu May 01, 2025 11:02 pm
Forum: History and Warfare
Topic: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD
Replies: 62
Views: 4213

Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

From Minuteman by Stumpf: The CEP estimates approved by the JCS for use in SIOP Revision G, 1 January through 30 June 1970, for Minuteman IB with the Mark 11 and Minuteman II with the Mark 11C were 1.6 and 1 nm, respectively. The CEP estimates for Minuteman III’s first, second, and third Mark 12 ree...
by MKSheppard
Sun Apr 27, 2025 6:45 pm
Forum: History and Warfare
Topic: The SAFEGUARD ABM System's OIF Kills
Replies: 4
Views: 829

Re: The SAFEGUARD ABM System's OIF Kills

I've been playing with radar horizon calculators as well as Google Earth. Baylor's simulation of a LGM-30F (Light, No decoys) on a maximum range target was: Stage 3 Burnout @ 212.4 km altitude. Apogee @ 1452 km altitude. He also said that from Minuteman II onwards, the launch programmer allowed for ...
by MKSheppard
Sun Apr 27, 2025 1:48 am
Forum: History and Warfare
Topic: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD
Replies: 62
Views: 4213

Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

https://bpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/wordpressua.uark.edu/dist/3/246/files/2016/05/Minuteman-Trajectory-Simulation.pdf In conjunction with the slight deceleration of Stage III, separation springs in the RV mechanical system pushed the RV away from the NS10 guidance set. From this point - 272 nautical miles...
by MKSheppard
Thu Apr 24, 2025 12:48 am
Forum: History and Warfare
Topic: The SAFEGUARD ABM System's OIF Kills
Replies: 4
Views: 829

Re: The SAFEGUARD ABM System's OIF Kills

I've had several years to think on this; and I've realized something about SAFEGUARD + GMD. Remember that the original systems design for SAFEGUARD was actually called SENTINEL and was a much bigger deployment: Sentinel-Deployment.gif Notice how: Fairbanks, AK Seattle, WA Malmstrom AFB, MT Grand For...