C-123 Providers, and AMARC disposal policies in TLW

[Bernard Woolley]

It is.

[James1978]

F/A-18A/B from AMARC

Probably easiest to just post the table.

FA-18A AMARC.jpg

Some explanations
* US Attrition: Using loss data from @, but for dates prior to TLWverse April 2005.
* Reactivation: Two USN Reserve fighter F/A-18A squadrons were on the USS America when she went down. For the sake of discussion, I'm assuming most of the aircraft aboard were not airborne and were lost. That's 20-24** aircraft pulled from AMARC for the USN.
** Depends on actual squadron size. In the late 1980s, pre-POD, USN F/A-18 and F-14 squadrons dropped from 12 planes to 10. Why is another conversation.
* Australia: Aircraft taken from AMARC by Australia post-1999 TLWverse,
* Spain: in @, Spain got 24 F/A-18A from AMARC in the 1990s. In TLWverse, they got 30.
* New Zealand: TLWverse only.

Now there are a few caveats here . . .
* New Zealand: It's unclear if more Hornets were/are on order so that No. 2 Squadron can be reequipped as well. But given that in @ New Zealand once planned to lease 28 F-16s, I'd say that's a safe bet.
* Canada: TLWverse Canada is short a Hornet squadron from their @ Cold War high. I'm honestly not sure if anybody was thinking about attrition, or if its just an oops when we hashed out the Canadian ORBAT. In any event, Canada's peacetime attrition was such that they had to disband a Hornet squadron in TLWverse in order to keep the rest of the squadrons at a decent, non banana republic strength. But with the Cold War not ending, and NORAD obligations being what they are . . . I think there is a high likelihood that Canada picked up some F/A-18As from AMARC in the 1990s. Probably worth a discussion in the Canada thread.

Now those number can be fiddled with on the US end. But it would require revising some ORBATS. And if New Zealand i supposed to get a second squadron, and Canada makes an attrition buy, then the numbers say we have to do that.

[Eaglenine2]

Dumb question is the F/A-18A production line still up?

[James1978]

Dumb question is the F/A-18A production line still up?

No. Production of the F/A-18A/B ended in 1987 for the US, but the last CF-18A/B for Canada was 1988 and the last EF-18A for Spain was in 1990.

In @, "C/D' production ended in 2000. Absent a significant export order in the late 1990s, I don't think that would change much in TLWverse.
But if anyone has a suggestion for who might make a major F/A-18C/D purchase in the late 1990s, I'm all ears.

Any other non-US air forces flying classic F/A-18s will be flying "C/D" models. That's at least Kuwait, Malaysia, and Switzerland. There may be a few others.
In TLWverse, Finland did not get F/A-18C/Ds.

Australia would have picked up its F/A-18D squadron around 1999-2000ish. I don't think it's official/cannon, but at least in my head I had them as basically white tail birds that someone else ordered then had to cancel for some reason. So when the RAAF got them, they were basically ready for delivery and already configured to USMC F/A-18D N/AW standard.

[Matt Wiser]

One other type of aircraft is going to be coming out, and it'll be the Navy and Marines only: the A-6. I do believe we discussed this on the previous board, but the need for Intruders is going to outpace Grumman's production capacity. The A-6G, which was a proposed alternative to the F in @, envisioned a CILOP program, with the fuselage of the E, airframes zero-timed, the F's avionics and radar (and TRAM), along with wings. I don't recall if the G kept the J52 engines or went to the F404s that the F had, so... This is a program that NADEP Alameda and NADEP Norfolk could work on, along with (Grumman CEO's teeth knashing) Boeing-Wichita as they were doing the composite wings. This is, of course, separate from taking enough Es out of storage for the three new CVWs standing up.

[drmarkbailey]

Makes sense for both the F-18 force and the transport issue.

OK....

Into this gap stepped Viking Air of Victoria, British Columbia. The company, a manufacturer of replacement parts for all out-of-production de Havilland Canada aircraft, had purchased the type certificates from Bombardier Aerospace for all versions of the DHC-1 through DHC-7 series aircraft, which gave them the right to manufacture and sell new aircraft of those types.

Viking Air had proposed to both the RAAF and Canada’s Air Command that it put the Buffalo back into production for both air forces. The new-build Buffalo, dubbed the DHC-5NG for ‘New Generation’ would be powered by Pratt & Whitney Canada PW100 turboprops, with six-bladed composite propellers, rather than the General Electric T64 of the original aircraft, which powered three-bladed propellers. It would also have a glass cockpit and Night Vision Goggle compatibility.

With its Caribous becoming increasingly difficult to operate, the RAAF had almost bitten Viking Air’s hand off, so keen were they to procure the aircraft. The deal offered to the Australians also included Caribou spare parts to keep the fleet going while the DHC-5NG was brought into service.

Air Command was a little less enthusiastic; its Buffalo fleet was not in the need of immediate replacement. However, it saw the logic of joining the programme as a larger production run would make each individual aircraft cheaper. Canada would be happy to wait a bit longer for its new CC-115B to be delivered, which would be after the last Australian aircraft was delivered.

The first four DHC-5NG had been delivered to the RAAF by late 2004, which had established C Flight of 38 Squadron, to act as an Operational Evaluation Unit, and more recently as an Operational Conversion Unit. On the outbreak of war, the flight had joined the rest of the squadron at Port Moresby.

Canon is canon.

So, how about this?

2000 - start the Caribou upgrade FIRST in (say) early 2000. Do that locally with Viking Air doing a tech/training transfer so that a Caribou turbo-upgrade kicks off in Australia for the 17 extant RAAF caribou. There won't be enough as demand grows

2001 - with all sorts of SHTF going on, Viking convinces the RAAF to buy 1 SQN of Buffalo (12 machines) specifically for the PNG mission. They are a better bird for and have a capability superiority in those flying conditions. Meanwhile this liberates the Caribou fleet to support the mission across the Top End as it generates. The Squadron in PNG uses a mix of modified and unmodified Caribou and then Buffalo as they enter service - which marches the canon story three years later in '04.

that gives an appropriate timeline for the newbuild Buffalo

Comments?

Cheers: Mark

[drmarkbailey]

I am constantly amazed at what old military aircraft still lurk in odd nooks and crannies of the USA.

https://cowboystatedaily.com/2025/09/27 ... ting-bids/

I count 5 KC-97 tankers in this drone scan

Cheers: Mark

[James1978]

A-10s from AMARC

How many A-10s were/are at AMARC?
Short Answer:
Longer Answer: Seeing as how "A-10s from AMARC" have been mentioned in the main narrative, this is a little awkward. But the answer is probably "zero".

The A-10s didn't start going to AMARC in @ until after the Berlin Wall came down.
In TLWverse, the @ A-10 force structure has been maintained, minus the squadron in Alaska. I was actually looking at restoring the squadron in Alaska, but the numbers just don't work.

A-10 Numbers.jpg

The attrition numbers are from @ up through the end of 2004. In all honestly, with more being flown by more units for longer, that number is probably higher in TLWverse.

The 43 aircraft listed as "available" aren't in AMARC. That's 7% of the A-10 force and represent aircraft in depot maintenance / A-10A => A-10C conversion. But for a fleet where the youngest aircraft is 20 years old, that numbers seems low. From what I've found, about 10-15% of the fleet is typically in depot maintenance.

So if anything, a couple of Guard/Reserve A-10 squadrons probably ought to be flying something else.
Even that isn't enough to get us A-10s in AMARC in meaningful numbers. If we want that to happen, then TLWverse General Dynamics needs to win the budget appropriations lottery for the Fort Worth Division (the F-16 line).

Of course, we can always talk A-16s. Which if you keep an open mind and you're willing to go deeper than "but the gun pods didn't work in ODS", is an interesting rabbit hole.

Questions? Comments? Opposing views?

[jemhouston]

A-16 and the gun pod, you only need the gun pod if you're going in low. That's proven to be suicidal in a peer conflict. The regular F-16 would work for air support at medium altitude.

[James1978]

A-16 and the gun pod, you only need the gun pod if you're going in low. That's proven to be suicidal in a peer conflict. The regular F-16 would work for air support at medium altitude.

Oh I don't disagree that gun runs and "brrrrtttt" obsession are overrated in a world where the Cold War went on for fifteen more years. Though apparently they did eventually iron out the issues with the gun pod.

My understanding is that purpose-built A-16s would have had a degree of CAS customization and the focus would not have been the gun pod.
For anyone who's interested in the A-16, or even CAS info generally, I recommend this thread over at Secret Projects - F/A-16. A CAS aircraft with some get up and go.

Interesting side note though. At the tail end of the Cold War in @, there was a project for a MMW Maverick. That would have been an interesting capability.

[Eaglenine2]

Dumb question is the A-10 production line still active or closed later allowing for more A-10 production?

[James1978]

Dumb question is the A-10 production line still active or closed later allowing for more A-10 production?

A-10 production ended in 1984.
Fairchild stopped building aircraft at their Hagerstown, MD plant and closed the facility by 1987. I have no idea what became of the tooling and jigs.

[James1978]

One other type of aircraft is going to be coming out, and it'll be the Navy and Marines only: the A-6. I do believe we discussed this on the previous board, but the need for Intruders is going to outpace Grumman's production capacity. The A-6G, which was a proposed alternative to the F in @, envisioned a CILOP program, with the fuselage of the E, airframes zero-timed, the F's avionics and radar (and TRAM), along with wings. I don't recall if the G kept the J52 engines or went to the F404s that the F had, so... This is a program that NADEP Alameda and NADEP Norfolk could work on, along with (Grumman CEO's teeth knashing) Boeing-Wichita as they were doing the composite wings. This is, of course, separate from taking enough Es out of storage for the three new CVWs standing up.

A-6E: Accounting for attrition, and museum birds, there would have been about 300 A-6E. That's before any A-6G conversions.

A-6G: IIRC, the A-6G was basically A-6F avionics but kept the old engines.

I know we've bounced around the idea that there was a limited CILOP A-6G run in the early 1990s before A-6F production got going. The question would be how many were built. I'm certainly in favor of the two reserve A-6 squadrons are flying A-6Gs instead of A-6Es so the two squadrons weren't total systems orphans.
I think Bernard signed off on the idea? Oh, Bernard!

A-6G CILOP: Assuming there was a limited run in the early 1990s, I think they were possibly all done in house by Grumman.
If the program was dual sourced, it would have been with NADEP Alameda. NADEP Norfolk was already the second source for F-14A => F-14D CILOP.

A-6F: Unpopular Opinion - I don't think the A-6F is still in production in TLWverse 2005 . . . and I don't think the F-14D is either.
I'll get into the details later this weekend. But the sort version is I think I understand the whole "Dick Cheney hated Grumman" thing. He didn't, not exactly, but there were other issues in the background and Grumman ended up being without a chair when the music stopped. And the logic involved is Cold War pre-POD and I think would still hold in TLWverse.

SPOILER WARNING: This one is going to be controversial. Related to the above, [ducks]I think there are zero usable F-14s in AMARC.[/ducks]

[Bernard Woolley]

I did sign off on the A-6G idea.

Sorry I've not been around much recently. Having PC related issues.

[Matt Wiser]

Assuming the F is no longer in production-they will need Intruders. Then the best solution apart from restarting production at Calverton is to get as many Es out of AMARC as possible to be turned into Gs. Get some to NADEP Alameda and to Grumman-Calverton ASAP and get started on that work.

[James1978]

Northrop-Grumman Calverton is still going, they're just building F-25s now in TLWverse.

A-6G: Like I said, we've got about 300 A-6E to play with. And I'm assuming that as in @, nobody bought them second-hand.
The question is how many of those 300 were CILOPed into A-6Gs in the early 1990s? I kind of settled on a working number of 50, but it may be more than that.

Naval Aviation Depot (NADEP): NADEP Alameda and NADEP Norfolk ought to be available for A-6E => "G" conversions in TLWverse 2005. NADEP Norfolk will have finished F-14A => D works years earlier, and it's wartime.

[drmarkbailey]

What chapter was USS America sunk in? I have not read that one.

CHeers: Mark

[James1978]

What chapter was USS America sunk in? I have not read that one.

CHeers: Mark

It's Chapter 144.

Another board member, Lordroel, has his own alternate history board and is hosting a TLW archive/backup. He's been reposting older chapters. The Chapter 144 there is an older version and says USS Saratoga, but it was revised to be USS America.

The USS America took an anti-ship missile in the hanger and a wake homer in the stern in the first attack. He speed was cut enough that she could not launch fixed wing aircraft. When she was about a 100mi (160km) west of Gibraltar, a second Soviet sub put three more torpedoes in her.

[Matt Wiser]

Northrop-Grumman Calverton is still going, they're just building F-25s now in TLWverse.

A-6G: Like I said, we've got about 300 A-6E to play with. And I'm assuming that as in @, nobody bought them second-hand.
The question is how many of those 300 were CILOPed into A-6Gs in the early 1990s? I kind of settled on a working number of 50, but it may be more than that.

Naval Aviation Depot (NADEP): NADEP Alameda and NADEP Norfolk ought to be available for A-6E => "G" conversions in TLWverse 2005. NADEP Norfolk will have finished F-14A => D works years earlier, and it's wartime.

Then both Alameda and Norfolk can start getting to work.

[drmarkbailey]

Thanks James.

I 'get' that A-6 is going to be needed.

Have you considered that the A-4 fleet might be suitable for use in secondary theatres to take some of the low-end land-based and even sea-based missions? I am thinking here of two options.
Firstly, there's still a handful of Essex class still around (Oriskany would be the one I'd look at), 2 Midways are also still in existence. These would be my personal SECOND choice.
Secondly, a large diesel powered containership hull with a straight deck and a 'boxed' boiler plant to feed two catapults (removed from museum ships would be my approach) arrester gear etc for an A-4/S-2 mix would be a possibility. It's an ARAPAHO-plus modern escort carrier. 1 SQN each of A-4 and S-2, plus any available dipping helicopters.

Yes, there are commercially available boiler systems which can be used for steam catapults.

Cheers: Mark