Some little notes:
Prologue and Errata
- The resources outlined in the Prologue won't really be used or accessed for quite some time, or at least until Britain reaches the necessary level of advancement. At that point, they will have an effect something like the second stage of the Saturn V
- As mentioned, there is a great deal of symbolism involved with the choice of the number 12 (Disciples, 12 Peers, a literal 'man for all seasons' and more), but at the same time there will be a fair amount of crossover in their specialisations
- Mention of a Dark having Risen is a literary hat-tip to the 1970s series by Susan Cooper, as well as providing some (at this point unspecified) hint as to a future Big Bad that necessitates a last desperate attempt at time travel and trying to do things differently. Details on this won't come out until much, much later in the story, but its mention early on serves to ground all of the advantage and changes in an equally great challenge
- As alluded to on the side, the nature of their travel through the worlds both opened a 'door' for them to go through, and created quite the 'energy signature' that certain entities, creatures and ...things... could not help but notice. This will serve as a further curve ball/spanner in the works, as well as provide both some interim problems/adversaries and, perhaps, a means for some other countries to be able to reply in some ways...
Chapter 1
- Browning labelling his thoroughly modern automobile as a 2069 Land Rover hints that the marque has been superceded by some other name
- His reflection that he has something in his 'pocketses' is perhaps a hint, or perhaps a red herring, or perhaps something in between
- The Wilberforce Oak is a delicate bit of foreshadowing: https://moremoth.blogspot.com/2016/05/w ... ak_12.html
- There is a bit of a suggestion that Browning's appearance and manner has been slightly adjusted to fit in with Pitt's general preferences for his favourites, as well as there being some little unnatural influences upon his persuasiveness
- The rather nice book by Mr. Baines is available here for perusal: https://archive.org/details/historyofwarsoff01bainuoft
- Some of the wording in Browning's opening spiel to Mr. Pitt is a bit inspired by the opening monologue to the 1995 power metal album Ayreon - The Final Experiment
- 1794 is a fulcrum, certainly, and whilst sound arguments could be made for 1789, June 1791 or 1792, the year I chose fitted in to the Goldilocks zone primarily for storytelling purposes. Go a bit further back, and there might be a tendency to avoid some changes; go a bit further forward, and many trends and problems would already be locked in
- Pitt thinking more about his legacy than simply extending his life is a bit of a hint that the 'downtime' British will not be entirely manipulated
Chapter 2
- One of the first things that Steele sees is a dodo trying to escape to the great outdoors. That will definitely not be the last of the interesting animals at Bletchley, with the very large deer being another hint
- There is a Hills Hoist clothes line outside, which is a suggestion that a lot of the tools and offerings will be delightfully mundane. Not every part of a story or of life is about small arms calibres or building ships
- Bletchley's librarian is named in honour of the YouTuber Lindybeige, but like all the other namesakes, is not actually that person
- Just having very accurate maps will not only save work, but make for more efficient development and exploration
- A whole lot more on the crops and seeds will be detailed, along with the animals being GMed and bred to rather different sizes, yields and characteristics than what is typically available in the 1790s; one particular seed is for non-carcinogenic tobacco
- The offhand mention of 'Babbage' was both a pun and a little fourth wall breaking as to the future for the audience
- There are rather more rifles and other weapons than what has been initially displayed
Chapter 3
- There is sufficient gold and diamonds to change a lot of choices and compromises, and, in concert with future knowledge and medicine, is the first stage of the figurative Saturn V
- Reverse money laundering is a curious idea
- Unfortunately for Mr. Steele, the hour of dinner would continue to get later and later as time goes by
- A nice offhand reference to a handful of 'Super 3D Printers' will surely not be mentioned again
- The kitchen staff at Bletchley are lead by a Heston Oliver, Gordon Floyd and Delia Lawson. If nothing else, the banter and repartee would be quite amusing
- The dishes presented, all a la francaise (with distinct courses a la Russe not yet having raised their head in Western cuisine), include a version of lobster thermidor, prawn cocktails, fried chicken in a mock KFC bucket, meat fruits, a pizza with pineapple amongst other toppings, some sort of barbecued ribs and brisket, and a rather spicy bolognese dish
- The Army will most likely have to take a creditable loss in the Netherlands in order to learn the lessons needed for later victories
- Boney gets to meet Richard Sharpe and an M203
- The general plan is to build rifled muskets, some actual rifles for the relevant regiments, and, in a piece of irony, 12 pounder Napoleons
- Hornblower's naval briefing is fairly straightforward, and the path towards beating up on the French Navy hopefully clear
Chapter 4
- France is the enemy today, but as time goes by, their potential threat decreases. There are a limited number of areas where Britain and France can clash in the generation *after* any war is won; one idea I am dabbling, as a somewhat distant possibility, is a grouping of Alsace, Lorraine and the Saar as a buffer state
- Spain is very much the least of the Great Powers, but even shorn of most of her colonies, without the damage of the Napoleonic invasion, they may come out well ahead of their historical position
- They don't have extensive forces outside of Spain, so that sniping at various colonies, with the right forces and plans, has a better than even possibility of relative success
- Turning Austria in a different direction than that of Lombardy and Venetia is something of a potential idea aimed at preventing a clash with a renewed France over Northern Italy; having Austria gain and chew up Servia in the early 1800s would lead to 'interesting' changes
- Small Prussia can be manipulated into being a British ally on London's terms; if they gain the Rhineland, then some sort of North German Confederation is fairly inevitable, and Berlin will be able to make a play for a unified Germany from there in a similar fashion to our history. Given that logic, for what its worth, Browning & Co are recommending at least trying a slightly different path
- Russia is the prospective big bad/main strategic rival, based on the general pattern of British foreign policy in the 19th century, the inevitable clash of Russian autocracy and perceived British liberalism, the preconceptions that The Twelve bring with them from the future and the basic mathematics of power; additionally, a story without an opponent that can at least provide a reasonable response can become pretty flat
- Keeping Germany and Italy as plural entities has some attractions from the point of view of a future informed Britain
- Sweden and Denmark are small enough to need friends and large enough, relatively speaking, at this point to still be useful chums. It would be interesting to see an independent Norway emerge a century early
- Portugal is the old ally, and if propped up and supported, provides a useful friend for the short and medium term; acquiring some of her islands is a distant possibility
- "There are only two things I can't stand in this world: People who are intolerant of other people's cultures, and the Dutch." The silly words of Nigel Powers out of the way, once the particular circumstances of the current war are over (including sniping the most attractive Dutch bits and pieces around the world), there isn't a lot of difference between Britain and the Netherlands, particularly if a strong buffer state can be maintained. It is unclear as to whether the future Belgium and the Netherlands proper could remain united in the long run, but it may be something that is at the very least explored
- The Ottomans don't have a lot of cards in their hand, nor the soon to be partially independent Egyptians for that matter. This isn't to say that the Turks will be completely cut loose soon, but there won't be quite the same degree of long term support. Whenever a Greek War of Independence breaks out, it is likely to see a bit more direct support in order to have the subsequent state firmly end up in the British corner
- The situation of the USA is that it is a young, relatively low population and moderately wealthy country with some limited industry and a predominantly agricultural and commercial economy. There isn't any immediate trigger for or need for conflict, and there is the epitome of there being far bigger fish to fry, but at the same time, there is full knowledge of the future
- Note the somewhat subjective rendering of future history, including a downplaying of any US Civil War and the curious mention of Canada being taken over by the USA at some point in the 21st century; the last is a slight hat tip towards events in the Fallout universe, but at this time, I'll say that the world that The Twelve are from is not that of Fallout. Not exactly, at least...
- The basic position being recommended is "Be prepared, but if it comes to war, deal them a defeat so substantial that it has a lasting effect on the relative positions of the countries, whilst knocking some sense into them." The trouble with this, as Steele points out, is that it relies upon the schoolboy knocked to the ground (America) reacting in exactly the way predicted
- On paper, someone might get the idea that a Revolutionary War rematch might be a good idea, but this won't be directly encouraged; whilst it is possible to defeat the infant USA if Britain wasn't engaged in a war elsewhere, this would come with a whole lot of costs and problems
- The USA of 1794 is not yet close to that of 1812 in even terms
- Aiming to open China without the need for opium will be a hard sell, as modern and future attitudes to drugs are going to be different from the prevailing thinking of the 1790s; that said, the idea of the opium trade was not something given universal moral carte blanche
- Not having the economic need for it as a primary trade good will be a useful argument; it is possible that, at some future point, it might take a new and rather more powerful embassy + fleet to get a different response from China
- Japan and Korea are fairly far down the priority and pecking order at this point, whilst Siam might find herself facing a different strategic situation in the Far East such that her status as one of the states who avoided colonisation might potentially change, at some point
- Persia is similarly not on the top rung of importance, but won't be completely neglected. The Sauds in the depths of Arabia will likely have a different fate
- Aubrey touches briefly upon India and the putative future Dominions, but some aspects will also be covered by Doctor Savage when he discussed exploration
The Cards Reshuffled
-
Simon Darkshade
- Posts: 1680
- Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:55 am
Re: The Cards Reshuffled
The Cards Reshuffled 5
Mr. Edmund Blackadder, a black haired fellow of middling height and seemingly possessed of a permanent sardonic grimace, nodded as he arose.
"The challenge of the coming decades and centuries is one where Britain's economy and trade played a key part in its strength, but by the same token, retained significant room for different development and improvement. At the heart of this challenge is a determination of what might be the right policies to support an even better and manifestly successful outcome. Before I can expound upon some specific recommendations for the short, medium and long term, I fear I must provide something of general introduction to some of the key ideas and concepts which they hang upon.
The late Mr. Adam Smith proved to be extremely influential in the crafting of the science of economics, and his broad ideas of the advantage of free trade and free markets are in favour of Britain's position for the next two to three generations; certainly, there is little argument that can be made in favour of mercantilist policies at this time. What the French call laissez-faire can work rather well whilst Britain is the foremost economy and whilst our Industrial Revolution produces new goods and old far cheaper than our foreign competitors. It is not, however, an eternal maxim to hold strong to in every wind, and when the time comes, it can potentially be to our interest to shift and adapt the guiding principles of policy. There are some theories that can be better avoided, and further ones that may not come to pass in the absence of their benighted founders.
For now, promoting freer trade and indeed forcing it upon some potential future states who might have become competitors would be in Britain's interest. There were laws put in place historically after the wars against France to protect British corn production against cheaper foreign imports; this ultimately did little to properly protect farmers and much to harm manufacturing and the general cost of living, such that we would recommend strongly against consideration of similar Corn Laws, even if they should turn out to be necessary, which, in light of the agricultural boons that Old McDonald will properly put in their place in his piece, they are not. When free trade is in British interests, then we should be the high priests of that cult and laud it to the heavens and back; when it ceases to be so, we should not simply wish that the world were different, or as it was once fancied to be, but rather be as the Vicar of Bray, sir, and change our position. When the facts change, we should change our position, at least as far as a matter as ephemeral as trade and economy is concerned.
Last century, Sir William Petty in his Verbum Sapienti came upon a particularly useful idea for measuring the wealth of nations, which is more than merely the sum of gold and precious metals that it might hold, but a sum of the income of the nation, the value of its people or labour, its stocks and its physical objects of value. Many years down the line, in the middle of the 20th century, this became known as a 'Gross Domestic Product', and by this measure, it is possible to determine the growth or contraction of the value of the economy of a country. Determining this value through contemporary means would be extremely arduous and time consuming, but within our library of books and documents here in Bletchley, we have quite accurate figures determined by economic historians that can be used as something of an initial figure. By taking measures to encourage the growth of the economy of the country, its industry and its natural resources, both agricultural and mineral, it can be possible to gradually increase the total volume of government revenue whilst keeping various forms of taxation as low as possible.
In this way, we may be able to measure the level of expenditure on various functions of the government, such as the Army and Navy, as percentages of the total wealth of the nation, or of the GDP. Whilst currently, government spending is limited to the traditional functions of the military, the general cost of government itself, servicing the national debt and the Civil List, there will come a time when certain responsibilities will expand with the development of the country, such as protection of the public, new means of communication and even some measure of educational investment, for the better health and welfare of the nation. Directing funds when they are available and indeed plentiful into areas and projects where they will result in great benefit to Britain is perhaps a matter for consideration. Central to our suggest policy approach is to engineer the elimination of the principal of the existing National Debt and the cost of the current war, such that our peacetime expenditure would initially amount to a bare 6 or 7 per cent, with a concomitant positive effect on the general economy, which will be the beneficiary of the funds not taken up in taxation and extraneous government spending.
The great boon potentially provided by the cellar of this house is one that should be handled carefully, as Mr. Browning has mentioned afore. We have the example of the Spanish in previous centuries, whose great influx of gold and particularly silver from the Americas lead to an effective decrease in the value of these precious metals in comparison to the products of agriculture and the output of artisans and craftsmen, and eventual bankruptcies of the Hapsburg crown. The greater availability of gold and silver is one of the potential causes of inflation, or the growth in the price of goods and services, or of deflation, or the decrease in the same. Both are potentially negative incidences in excess, like a surfeit of wine carries with it consequences; in general, and in the short term, it is better to control inflation to a very low level by control of how much gold might be released into the economy. In the medium and long term, as the economy grows, small growth in inflation is likely to be expected, over time.
In our Britain, Mr. Pitt was moved to introduce a tax on income in 1799, in order to pay for part of the war with France, but this proved relatively short lived, being finally abolished the year after the defeat of the French in 1816. It was subsequently reintroduced in the 1840s to counter a growing deficit in government revenues, and then never went away, growing steadily through years of peace and war alike to reach very high levels in the second half of the 1900s. At a certain point, too much tax upon income, and other taxes, proved to be less efficient in collecting more revenue, and a general understanding grew, among many thinkers, that too great a burden of taxation upon an economy and a country would result in negative consequences. Here, it is likely that there will not be the same need for an income tax in the short term, but that some form of taxation upon incomes is something that governments may consider in the medium to long term, particularly if it were accompanied by reductions in ancillary taxes, such as window tax, brick tax, glass tax, wallpaper tax, hat tax and hearth tax in Ireland. In general, these smaller taxes proved to be an inefficient means of raising revenue.
If taxation is one way in which the revenue of the government can rise, but the wealth of the country contract, so too the economy itself moves in something of a cycle like the waves of the sea. There are good years and then there are years in which the economy recesses, such as in the Crisis of 1772 in recent memory. If the economy decreases for a substantive amount of time, this recession of growth then becomes a depression, with a figurative incubus weighing it down. These events are as avoidable as the tides, or not at all, but unlike the ocean, there are some means of of controlling them, or at least curbing their impact. Currently, the growth or decrease in Britain's GDP in a large part comes down to the exigencies of agriculture and the harvest, although that is decreasing by the year with the growth in industry, manufacture and commerce; encouraging and supporting this shift will remove the potential for some events of the weather or climate have quite as deleterious an effect upon the general economic performance of Britain in years to come. Another means is an awareness of the nature of manias, panics and 'bubbles', where the prices of assets exceeds their base value such as what occurred historically with the South Seas Company, and what is occurring now with the great popularity in construction of canals."
"So we should not authorise further canals?"
"Yes and no. There are many that should be built, including some never completed or even started in our England, and others that should be perhaps subject to somewhat more critical scrutiny. For those in the latter group, it may be a worthwhile notion to approve them, and then, at an appropriate juncture, have them purchased by a third party company and used as a means of redirecting some of the funds from this house to His Majesty's Government, before having them gracefully wound down or sold off. In this way, some part of the 'Canal Mania' could be utilised to the longer term benefit of the country, even if it be in something of a roundabout or clandestine fashion."
"An...interesting...suggestion. Firstly Mr. Browning suggest washing the gold in a laundry, and now for a rinse in a canal."
"All in the name of a clean sweep, I'll warrant. Now, if I may, we might progress onto Trade. Our advantage here is our lead in technology over Europe and the rest of the world, and the size of our domestic market. In terms of British demand, that will continue to increase over the coming decades with the rising population and increasing national wealth, and both of these factors can be further increased through the confluence of factors in our favour. Insofar as foreign competition is concerned, we should be able to steal a march upon them in relation to the price and volume of trade goods, be they textiles, metal manufactures, tools and other goods; they will eventually be able to catch up to the technical knowledge and capability to produce the type of goods that we can make now or in 5 or 10 years, but in that intervening time, we will have pushed further ahead in reducing the cost of production and increasing its volume. Our aim should be to achieve what Britain did historically by the 1840s and become the 'Workshop of the World', just around a generation earlier, and then maintain that status for comparatively longer. The goods and tools that we develop, build and sell now, or in the near future, will serve as stepping stones to the next generation of even more sophisticated and valuable goods. As Professor Elemental and Mr. Scott-Montgomery will explain in their talks on science and technology and transport and industry, Britain will be experiencing not just one Industrial Revolution over the next century, but perhaps three distinct episodes. For each of those, we would be well advised to be positioned to move forward at great pace and leave any foreign states writhing ineffectually in our dust."
"How would we do this?"
"Firstly, identify what is going to work well and clear out obstacles in its path. Secondly, make hay while the suns shines, and extend the summer in which is will be shining. Finally, counteract weaknesses that emerged historically, in ideal circumstances before they really emerge. To break that down, on the first count, Britain should firstly maximise her opportunities for economic growth and trade whilst this current war is going on, as well as ensuring that said war is shorter and cheaper, whilst at the same time providing capital for emerging industries and effecting laws to promote said industries. We can avoid having to take certain measures in taxation which can constrain the growth of manufacturing, and ease the general burden upon business and trade through the eventual removal of extraneous and obsolete taxes that do more harm than good.
On the second, at an early juncture, we should coordinate what efforts can be organised and provide investment in the sciences and education, so that the general population can become more educated and skilled in each coming generation, and so that we can cement our advantages. If Britain simply does as it did historically, and displace a large number of agricultural workers and labourers into new industrial cities, and then merely see them breed and grow in less than salubrious conditions, then we will build a brilliantly arranged but unskilled workforce for an era that will soon be past. What we can do differently is sow the seeds of education, of better infrastructure, and of eventual better conditions for the working man, so that each generation will emerge healthier, better educated and better suited to the new challenges and new industries that they will face in their prime. We must educate not just our scientists, but our engineers and industrialists to boot, and our merchants, business owners and managers, and then what can be termed the sergeants and corporals of our great working army. Knowledge in this case is very definitely power.
On the final, Britain would do well to avoid direct historical mistakes, such as the Corn Laws, and indirect historical errors, such being hidebound by legislation or established practices. Having consistent counsel for...the foreseeable future...will of course be of assistance in this regard, but many of the issues that touch upon the economy or trade are interrelated to questions of politics and of the general direction of the nation. Are you familiar with dominoes, Mr. Steele?"
"Of course I am, Mr. Blackadder. Errors compounding upon errors, perhaps?"
"Indeed, sir; I am most glad that you could seized upon my meaning so swiftly. There are many mistakes that could be made at an early juncture that might not even seem to be mistakes, but they then lead to other actions, then others, then finally a cascade of error that can push a country to the brink of disaster. As such, it is difficult to isolate the third, seventh, eleventh and nineteenth domino in a set of thirty and explain how they are wrong and to be avoided if there are others simply waiting to knock them over in a delightfully chaotic fashion. For example, if we control the vagaries of agriculture through the introduction of new, much higher yield crops, and through some simple measures of prudence in good years, we will be able to avoid the same type of impacts of poor harvests at two key junctures, effectively removing several years of negative growth and then the time taken in subsequent recovery. More specifics can come when the full set of facts is in your possession, and that of the Prime Minister and whichever other trusted ministers he so chooses, so that they can then be acted upon clearly and in a focused manner."
"Very well, that seems reasonable."
"I am glad to hear it. The other piece of the puzzle, like that charming contraption of Mr. Spilsbury for children, is what is done in terms of positive steps of domestic policy. After this war, as after all wars, there will be a period of dislocation as the Armed Forces contract in size and many unemployed men will be without work or firm station across Britain, leading to problems with crime and social unrest. Being prepared for this is one thing, but taking some level of appropriate measures to potentially counteract it could be another option to be considered; the Army and Navy being maintained at a level somewhat above the bare minimum could be a cost that ends up paying dividends of sorts. Over time, investment in new facilities or even weapons, eventually, also provides another means of creating economic activity at certain times, and providing for means of filtering some of the Bletchley monies into the civilian economy, as it were. Finally, there the notion of a new type of fund, different from Mr. Pitt's recent Sinking Fund. Government surplus monies, unexpected windfall revenues, monies from public lands here and abroad or other forms of savings can be gradually channeled into a fund which can grow and compound over time, and eventually, after several decades, provide a potential source of consistent government revenue from its yield. A small thing to begin with, but the power of compound interest will yield it a mountain beyond compare in a lifetime.
Finally, as well as this rather cunning plan of what can be done in Britain, there is a strong intersection with foreign policy and overseas markets. Our first aim should be to promote general peace as compared to regular wars; peace is good for business, and a 'Pax Britannica', if I can propose a term that I just invented," Blackadder paused to give an evil little smile ever so briefly "is the best of all. As well as the raw materials within the British Isles, we can ensure the ready and cheap supply of certain materials from without, and ideally without paying anything like a fair price for them. Ensuring open markets in Europe will take one kind of statecraft; opening them in the Americas, Asia, India and even Africa will take other kinds, in time. Britain historically, at least in the second half of the 19th century, developed a tendency to invest her available capital overseas, both in her own colonies and in completely independent states, including rivals such as America; putting in place restrictions on such generations before it is an issue would be rather counterproductive, but noting that it might be an issue for some future men, without binding them, could be a different matter.
Trade and business is the lifeblood of Britain, and what she could become. One of our erstwhile foes thought to slight us with the contumelious label of 'a nation of shopkeepers', which is actually not quite the insult he envisaged; better than a nation of Frenchmen, I dare say! The nation and the Empire did well enough in the years to come, but ultimately fell behind by virtue of being the first man to start running in a what would be something of a fair race, at least in the early stages. Here, we can do much, much better, as we can bring a new, scientific understanding of economics to bear; harness every one of our advantages and minimise every one our weaknesses; be prepared to adopt different policies when the circumstances permit them; and for one last very important reason."
"And what is that, Mr. Blackadder?"
"We'll cheat."
Mr. Edmund Blackadder, a black haired fellow of middling height and seemingly possessed of a permanent sardonic grimace, nodded as he arose.
"The challenge of the coming decades and centuries is one where Britain's economy and trade played a key part in its strength, but by the same token, retained significant room for different development and improvement. At the heart of this challenge is a determination of what might be the right policies to support an even better and manifestly successful outcome. Before I can expound upon some specific recommendations for the short, medium and long term, I fear I must provide something of general introduction to some of the key ideas and concepts which they hang upon.
The late Mr. Adam Smith proved to be extremely influential in the crafting of the science of economics, and his broad ideas of the advantage of free trade and free markets are in favour of Britain's position for the next two to three generations; certainly, there is little argument that can be made in favour of mercantilist policies at this time. What the French call laissez-faire can work rather well whilst Britain is the foremost economy and whilst our Industrial Revolution produces new goods and old far cheaper than our foreign competitors. It is not, however, an eternal maxim to hold strong to in every wind, and when the time comes, it can potentially be to our interest to shift and adapt the guiding principles of policy. There are some theories that can be better avoided, and further ones that may not come to pass in the absence of their benighted founders.
For now, promoting freer trade and indeed forcing it upon some potential future states who might have become competitors would be in Britain's interest. There were laws put in place historically after the wars against France to protect British corn production against cheaper foreign imports; this ultimately did little to properly protect farmers and much to harm manufacturing and the general cost of living, such that we would recommend strongly against consideration of similar Corn Laws, even if they should turn out to be necessary, which, in light of the agricultural boons that Old McDonald will properly put in their place in his piece, they are not. When free trade is in British interests, then we should be the high priests of that cult and laud it to the heavens and back; when it ceases to be so, we should not simply wish that the world were different, or as it was once fancied to be, but rather be as the Vicar of Bray, sir, and change our position. When the facts change, we should change our position, at least as far as a matter as ephemeral as trade and economy is concerned.
Last century, Sir William Petty in his Verbum Sapienti came upon a particularly useful idea for measuring the wealth of nations, which is more than merely the sum of gold and precious metals that it might hold, but a sum of the income of the nation, the value of its people or labour, its stocks and its physical objects of value. Many years down the line, in the middle of the 20th century, this became known as a 'Gross Domestic Product', and by this measure, it is possible to determine the growth or contraction of the value of the economy of a country. Determining this value through contemporary means would be extremely arduous and time consuming, but within our library of books and documents here in Bletchley, we have quite accurate figures determined by economic historians that can be used as something of an initial figure. By taking measures to encourage the growth of the economy of the country, its industry and its natural resources, both agricultural and mineral, it can be possible to gradually increase the total volume of government revenue whilst keeping various forms of taxation as low as possible.
In this way, we may be able to measure the level of expenditure on various functions of the government, such as the Army and Navy, as percentages of the total wealth of the nation, or of the GDP. Whilst currently, government spending is limited to the traditional functions of the military, the general cost of government itself, servicing the national debt and the Civil List, there will come a time when certain responsibilities will expand with the development of the country, such as protection of the public, new means of communication and even some measure of educational investment, for the better health and welfare of the nation. Directing funds when they are available and indeed plentiful into areas and projects where they will result in great benefit to Britain is perhaps a matter for consideration. Central to our suggest policy approach is to engineer the elimination of the principal of the existing National Debt and the cost of the current war, such that our peacetime expenditure would initially amount to a bare 6 or 7 per cent, with a concomitant positive effect on the general economy, which will be the beneficiary of the funds not taken up in taxation and extraneous government spending.
The great boon potentially provided by the cellar of this house is one that should be handled carefully, as Mr. Browning has mentioned afore. We have the example of the Spanish in previous centuries, whose great influx of gold and particularly silver from the Americas lead to an effective decrease in the value of these precious metals in comparison to the products of agriculture and the output of artisans and craftsmen, and eventual bankruptcies of the Hapsburg crown. The greater availability of gold and silver is one of the potential causes of inflation, or the growth in the price of goods and services, or of deflation, or the decrease in the same. Both are potentially negative incidences in excess, like a surfeit of wine carries with it consequences; in general, and in the short term, it is better to control inflation to a very low level by control of how much gold might be released into the economy. In the medium and long term, as the economy grows, small growth in inflation is likely to be expected, over time.
In our Britain, Mr. Pitt was moved to introduce a tax on income in 1799, in order to pay for part of the war with France, but this proved relatively short lived, being finally abolished the year after the defeat of the French in 1816. It was subsequently reintroduced in the 1840s to counter a growing deficit in government revenues, and then never went away, growing steadily through years of peace and war alike to reach very high levels in the second half of the 1900s. At a certain point, too much tax upon income, and other taxes, proved to be less efficient in collecting more revenue, and a general understanding grew, among many thinkers, that too great a burden of taxation upon an economy and a country would result in negative consequences. Here, it is likely that there will not be the same need for an income tax in the short term, but that some form of taxation upon incomes is something that governments may consider in the medium to long term, particularly if it were accompanied by reductions in ancillary taxes, such as window tax, brick tax, glass tax, wallpaper tax, hat tax and hearth tax in Ireland. In general, these smaller taxes proved to be an inefficient means of raising revenue.
If taxation is one way in which the revenue of the government can rise, but the wealth of the country contract, so too the economy itself moves in something of a cycle like the waves of the sea. There are good years and then there are years in which the economy recesses, such as in the Crisis of 1772 in recent memory. If the economy decreases for a substantive amount of time, this recession of growth then becomes a depression, with a figurative incubus weighing it down. These events are as avoidable as the tides, or not at all, but unlike the ocean, there are some means of of controlling them, or at least curbing their impact. Currently, the growth or decrease in Britain's GDP in a large part comes down to the exigencies of agriculture and the harvest, although that is decreasing by the year with the growth in industry, manufacture and commerce; encouraging and supporting this shift will remove the potential for some events of the weather or climate have quite as deleterious an effect upon the general economic performance of Britain in years to come. Another means is an awareness of the nature of manias, panics and 'bubbles', where the prices of assets exceeds their base value such as what occurred historically with the South Seas Company, and what is occurring now with the great popularity in construction of canals."
"So we should not authorise further canals?"
"Yes and no. There are many that should be built, including some never completed or even started in our England, and others that should be perhaps subject to somewhat more critical scrutiny. For those in the latter group, it may be a worthwhile notion to approve them, and then, at an appropriate juncture, have them purchased by a third party company and used as a means of redirecting some of the funds from this house to His Majesty's Government, before having them gracefully wound down or sold off. In this way, some part of the 'Canal Mania' could be utilised to the longer term benefit of the country, even if it be in something of a roundabout or clandestine fashion."
"An...interesting...suggestion. Firstly Mr. Browning suggest washing the gold in a laundry, and now for a rinse in a canal."
"All in the name of a clean sweep, I'll warrant. Now, if I may, we might progress onto Trade. Our advantage here is our lead in technology over Europe and the rest of the world, and the size of our domestic market. In terms of British demand, that will continue to increase over the coming decades with the rising population and increasing national wealth, and both of these factors can be further increased through the confluence of factors in our favour. Insofar as foreign competition is concerned, we should be able to steal a march upon them in relation to the price and volume of trade goods, be they textiles, metal manufactures, tools and other goods; they will eventually be able to catch up to the technical knowledge and capability to produce the type of goods that we can make now or in 5 or 10 years, but in that intervening time, we will have pushed further ahead in reducing the cost of production and increasing its volume. Our aim should be to achieve what Britain did historically by the 1840s and become the 'Workshop of the World', just around a generation earlier, and then maintain that status for comparatively longer. The goods and tools that we develop, build and sell now, or in the near future, will serve as stepping stones to the next generation of even more sophisticated and valuable goods. As Professor Elemental and Mr. Scott-Montgomery will explain in their talks on science and technology and transport and industry, Britain will be experiencing not just one Industrial Revolution over the next century, but perhaps three distinct episodes. For each of those, we would be well advised to be positioned to move forward at great pace and leave any foreign states writhing ineffectually in our dust."
"How would we do this?"
"Firstly, identify what is going to work well and clear out obstacles in its path. Secondly, make hay while the suns shines, and extend the summer in which is will be shining. Finally, counteract weaknesses that emerged historically, in ideal circumstances before they really emerge. To break that down, on the first count, Britain should firstly maximise her opportunities for economic growth and trade whilst this current war is going on, as well as ensuring that said war is shorter and cheaper, whilst at the same time providing capital for emerging industries and effecting laws to promote said industries. We can avoid having to take certain measures in taxation which can constrain the growth of manufacturing, and ease the general burden upon business and trade through the eventual removal of extraneous and obsolete taxes that do more harm than good.
On the second, at an early juncture, we should coordinate what efforts can be organised and provide investment in the sciences and education, so that the general population can become more educated and skilled in each coming generation, and so that we can cement our advantages. If Britain simply does as it did historically, and displace a large number of agricultural workers and labourers into new industrial cities, and then merely see them breed and grow in less than salubrious conditions, then we will build a brilliantly arranged but unskilled workforce for an era that will soon be past. What we can do differently is sow the seeds of education, of better infrastructure, and of eventual better conditions for the working man, so that each generation will emerge healthier, better educated and better suited to the new challenges and new industries that they will face in their prime. We must educate not just our scientists, but our engineers and industrialists to boot, and our merchants, business owners and managers, and then what can be termed the sergeants and corporals of our great working army. Knowledge in this case is very definitely power.
On the final, Britain would do well to avoid direct historical mistakes, such as the Corn Laws, and indirect historical errors, such being hidebound by legislation or established practices. Having consistent counsel for...the foreseeable future...will of course be of assistance in this regard, but many of the issues that touch upon the economy or trade are interrelated to questions of politics and of the general direction of the nation. Are you familiar with dominoes, Mr. Steele?"
"Of course I am, Mr. Blackadder. Errors compounding upon errors, perhaps?"
"Indeed, sir; I am most glad that you could seized upon my meaning so swiftly. There are many mistakes that could be made at an early juncture that might not even seem to be mistakes, but they then lead to other actions, then others, then finally a cascade of error that can push a country to the brink of disaster. As such, it is difficult to isolate the third, seventh, eleventh and nineteenth domino in a set of thirty and explain how they are wrong and to be avoided if there are others simply waiting to knock them over in a delightfully chaotic fashion. For example, if we control the vagaries of agriculture through the introduction of new, much higher yield crops, and through some simple measures of prudence in good years, we will be able to avoid the same type of impacts of poor harvests at two key junctures, effectively removing several years of negative growth and then the time taken in subsequent recovery. More specifics can come when the full set of facts is in your possession, and that of the Prime Minister and whichever other trusted ministers he so chooses, so that they can then be acted upon clearly and in a focused manner."
"Very well, that seems reasonable."
"I am glad to hear it. The other piece of the puzzle, like that charming contraption of Mr. Spilsbury for children, is what is done in terms of positive steps of domestic policy. After this war, as after all wars, there will be a period of dislocation as the Armed Forces contract in size and many unemployed men will be without work or firm station across Britain, leading to problems with crime and social unrest. Being prepared for this is one thing, but taking some level of appropriate measures to potentially counteract it could be another option to be considered; the Army and Navy being maintained at a level somewhat above the bare minimum could be a cost that ends up paying dividends of sorts. Over time, investment in new facilities or even weapons, eventually, also provides another means of creating economic activity at certain times, and providing for means of filtering some of the Bletchley monies into the civilian economy, as it were. Finally, there the notion of a new type of fund, different from Mr. Pitt's recent Sinking Fund. Government surplus monies, unexpected windfall revenues, monies from public lands here and abroad or other forms of savings can be gradually channeled into a fund which can grow and compound over time, and eventually, after several decades, provide a potential source of consistent government revenue from its yield. A small thing to begin with, but the power of compound interest will yield it a mountain beyond compare in a lifetime.
Finally, as well as this rather cunning plan of what can be done in Britain, there is a strong intersection with foreign policy and overseas markets. Our first aim should be to promote general peace as compared to regular wars; peace is good for business, and a 'Pax Britannica', if I can propose a term that I just invented," Blackadder paused to give an evil little smile ever so briefly "is the best of all. As well as the raw materials within the British Isles, we can ensure the ready and cheap supply of certain materials from without, and ideally without paying anything like a fair price for them. Ensuring open markets in Europe will take one kind of statecraft; opening them in the Americas, Asia, India and even Africa will take other kinds, in time. Britain historically, at least in the second half of the 19th century, developed a tendency to invest her available capital overseas, both in her own colonies and in completely independent states, including rivals such as America; putting in place restrictions on such generations before it is an issue would be rather counterproductive, but noting that it might be an issue for some future men, without binding them, could be a different matter.
Trade and business is the lifeblood of Britain, and what she could become. One of our erstwhile foes thought to slight us with the contumelious label of 'a nation of shopkeepers', which is actually not quite the insult he envisaged; better than a nation of Frenchmen, I dare say! The nation and the Empire did well enough in the years to come, but ultimately fell behind by virtue of being the first man to start running in a what would be something of a fair race, at least in the early stages. Here, we can do much, much better, as we can bring a new, scientific understanding of economics to bear; harness every one of our advantages and minimise every one our weaknesses; be prepared to adopt different policies when the circumstances permit them; and for one last very important reason."
"And what is that, Mr. Blackadder?"
"We'll cheat."
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jemhouston
- Posts: 5883
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
Clint Smith, "If you're not cheating, you're trying." 
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Simon Darkshade
- Posts: 1680
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
When one has a long list of unfair and unnatural advantages, not using them to the full would be an interesting approach. The world is not an artificially levelled playing field.
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Belushi TD
- Posts: 1533
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
IT LIVES!!!!! YAY!
Holy crap, that post is an EPIC of extended sentences, dense verbiage and all the other things that Blackadder and Yes Minister do when speaking. I stand in awe of your writing skill. I think there was only one or two paragraphs that my eyes didn't cross while reading them. If I can remember which ones, I'll let you know so you can make them denser!
Well done, Sir.
Belushi TD
Holy crap, that post is an EPIC of extended sentences, dense verbiage and all the other things that Blackadder and Yes Minister do when speaking. I stand in awe of your writing skill. I think there was only one or two paragraphs that my eyes didn't cross while reading them. If I can remember which ones, I'll let you know so you can make them denser!
Well done, Sir.
Belushi TD
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Simon Darkshade
- Posts: 1680
- Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:55 am
Re: The Cards Reshuffled
Like a firing squad, I aim to please.
This latest chapter was a fair bit more delayed than I had planned, due to a busy period at work, juggling other bits and pieces of writing, getting sidetracked by some older games, the strange human habit called sleep, and the basic part that having to explain basic economics without quite giving away every little secret can get a bit dense.
Nevertheless, it finally got done and it shall be followed hopefully at a much shorter interval by Science and Tech with Professor Elemental, Transport, Industry and Infrastructure with Mr. Montgomery-Scott, Medicine and Health with Dr. Maturin, Farming and Food with Giles McDonald, and a bit of a wrap up by Browning on Home Affairs/Politics/Ireland and the Immediate Way Ahead. I've already started sketching out Science, but I won't go and say I'll finish it up on Saturday as that will jinx me.
We then head to France where I'm partway through Percy Blakeney rescuing someone (Sink me!), and then something to do with Boney courtesy of Richard Sharpe.* After that, things start to roll a bit, with the Glorious First of June, Sharpe's Rifles training, some interesting and difficult political decisions, and lots of moving of pieces.
* I'm tossing up whether to go with the easy option of having him shot with a 21st century weapon and making a pun about 'Napoleon Blownapart', or having him kidnapped and brainwashed a bit.
This latest chapter was a fair bit more delayed than I had planned, due to a busy period at work, juggling other bits and pieces of writing, getting sidetracked by some older games, the strange human habit called sleep, and the basic part that having to explain basic economics without quite giving away every little secret can get a bit dense.
Nevertheless, it finally got done and it shall be followed hopefully at a much shorter interval by Science and Tech with Professor Elemental, Transport, Industry and Infrastructure with Mr. Montgomery-Scott, Medicine and Health with Dr. Maturin, Farming and Food with Giles McDonald, and a bit of a wrap up by Browning on Home Affairs/Politics/Ireland and the Immediate Way Ahead. I've already started sketching out Science, but I won't go and say I'll finish it up on Saturday as that will jinx me.
We then head to France where I'm partway through Percy Blakeney rescuing someone (Sink me!), and then something to do with Boney courtesy of Richard Sharpe.* After that, things start to roll a bit, with the Glorious First of June, Sharpe's Rifles training, some interesting and difficult political decisions, and lots of moving of pieces.
* I'm tossing up whether to go with the easy option of having him shot with a 21st century weapon and making a pun about 'Napoleon Blownapart', or having him kidnapped and brainwashed a bit.
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Belushi TD
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:20 am
Re: The Cards Reshuffled
Why not both?
Have him get shot during a retreat, and while his doctors are offering to amputate his arm/leg or whatever, have them be captured, modern medicine applied to heal him remarkably quickly, and then see what that does to his attitude....
Belushi TD
Have him get shot during a retreat, and while his doctors are offering to amputate his arm/leg or whatever, have them be captured, modern medicine applied to heal him remarkably quickly, and then see what that does to his attitude....
Belushi TD
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Simon Darkshade
- Posts: 1680
- Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:55 am
Re: The Cards Reshuffled
There are no retreats when in Paris behind any fronts, and any sort of significant wound is going to be troublesome, but not result in capture.
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Simon Darkshade
- Posts: 1680
- Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:55 am
Re: The Cards Reshuffled
A few brainstorming notes on Science and Technology prior to that forthcoming chapter:
- Firstly, separating S&T from Medicine and from Engineering is simply a matter of organising the initial briefings. The three areas are intrinsically interlinked in practice
- Areas such as railroads, telegraphy, metallurgy, steam engines, electrickery and the like will be dealt with in Engineering/Infrastructure just as matter of convenience
- As of the 1790s, we were standing on the cusp of the shift from 'natural philosopher' to 'scientist'
- One of the first 'scientific actions' that will be taken is to rescue Antoine Lavoisier (and his wife, for good measure) from the shadow of the guillotine and whisk him back over the Channel
- Assembling a 'meeting of the minds' of the principal scientists in Britain, under the initial coordination of the Royal Society, will be a short term goal
- This will then be followed by the recruitment of different scientists across the Continent (including Gauss, Bolyai, Riemann and Volta) and an earlier establishment of the London and Edinburgh Mathematical Societies
- Starting a 'Royal University' in London will be the next stage development of that notion, along with the eventual headhunting and support of key British scientists, such as Faraday and Robert Brown
- Establishing a series of Royal Prizes, whereby the foremost achievement in Chemistry, Physics, Biology, Mathematics, Botany, Geology, Astronomy and Medicine (along with Literature and Exploration) would receive 10,000 pounds, a special gold medal, and a newly acknowledge honour
- In each of those 7 areas of natural science (and maths) will see the process of gathering together 1790s and 1800s talent; supplying them with ideas, new thinking, equipment, hints and funding
- This will likely drive the general pace of advance steadily faster up to a certain point
- The parallel I would draw is replaying a computer game where the player already knows where key objects, challenges and opponents are located, and has the added bonus of considerably increased funding
- John Dalton will be nudged towards the notion of the Periodic Table
- Charles Babbage will be given considerable help, hints and encouragement for the development of working Analytical Engines
- Rather than taking decades to work out Germ Theory and the Age of the Earth, these controversies will be resolved reasonably quickly
- Beyond the first two generations, helping expand the pool of scientific talent will come down to some earlier moves on the education front, as well as expanding Britain's universities and establishing technical colleges, as well as general international 'headhunting'. Getting a better educated (as well as healthier and happier/more stable) population will have more positive results than simply increasing the number of scientists and engineers, but it is a way towards those goals
- Whilst high-minded and abstract goals such as producing a morally *better* Britain, looking after its peoples, getting a much better historical repute regarding domestic policy and that difficult notion to quantify of 'prestige' could possibly motivate some 1794-1850 politicians and governments, framing some of these steps in more direct Economic, Hard Scientific, Military and National Power terms may result in easier acquiescence
A general aim will be to push for earlier inventions of:
- Tin Cans (1795 vs 1810) ; Steam Locomotives (1800ish vs 1814); Stethoscopes (1799 vs 1819), Portland Cement (1800 vs 1824), Matches (1803 vs 1827), Typewriters and Sewing Machines (1810ish vs 1829-30), Bicycles (1815 vs 1885) ; Wrench (1800 vs 1835)
- These would then be followed by the great rush of @ 1830s/40s inventions, such as the Revolver, Propeller, Refrigerator, Mechanical Reaper, Rubber Vulcanization, Staplers, Blueprints, Safety Pins, Pneumatic Tyres and more, coming around the 1820-1825 period
- Getting a workable internal combusting engine and proto-automobile will likely take until the 1830s and Samuel Brown (vs 1858 for the first ICE historically). Getting a workable automobile from there could take 20-25 further years, but there isn't an inordinate rush
- Not counting flying machines and devices possessed by the occupiers of Bletchley, the first flying machine will be something by George Cayley in the 1830s, followed by a properly developed aeroplane a decade or two later; some form of dirigible will be a bit earlier
- Dynamite, plastic, telephones, elevators, barbed wire, phonographs will likely come around the 1840-1850 period
- Broadly speaking, this will see the British dominance of the Workshop of the World period/First Industrial Revolution, in coal, iron and textiles, be continued into steel, chemicals, electricity, steam turbines, artificial fabrics, telephony and telegraphy of the Second Industrial Revolution, and thence onwards to the Third
- There may well be a Ministry of Science and Technology
- Firstly, separating S&T from Medicine and from Engineering is simply a matter of organising the initial briefings. The three areas are intrinsically interlinked in practice
- Areas such as railroads, telegraphy, metallurgy, steam engines, electrickery and the like will be dealt with in Engineering/Infrastructure just as matter of convenience
- As of the 1790s, we were standing on the cusp of the shift from 'natural philosopher' to 'scientist'
- One of the first 'scientific actions' that will be taken is to rescue Antoine Lavoisier (and his wife, for good measure) from the shadow of the guillotine and whisk him back over the Channel
- Assembling a 'meeting of the minds' of the principal scientists in Britain, under the initial coordination of the Royal Society, will be a short term goal
- This will then be followed by the recruitment of different scientists across the Continent (including Gauss, Bolyai, Riemann and Volta) and an earlier establishment of the London and Edinburgh Mathematical Societies
- Starting a 'Royal University' in London will be the next stage development of that notion, along with the eventual headhunting and support of key British scientists, such as Faraday and Robert Brown
- Establishing a series of Royal Prizes, whereby the foremost achievement in Chemistry, Physics, Biology, Mathematics, Botany, Geology, Astronomy and Medicine (along with Literature and Exploration) would receive 10,000 pounds, a special gold medal, and a newly acknowledge honour
- In each of those 7 areas of natural science (and maths) will see the process of gathering together 1790s and 1800s talent; supplying them with ideas, new thinking, equipment, hints and funding
- This will likely drive the general pace of advance steadily faster up to a certain point
- The parallel I would draw is replaying a computer game where the player already knows where key objects, challenges and opponents are located, and has the added bonus of considerably increased funding
- John Dalton will be nudged towards the notion of the Periodic Table
- Charles Babbage will be given considerable help, hints and encouragement for the development of working Analytical Engines
- Rather than taking decades to work out Germ Theory and the Age of the Earth, these controversies will be resolved reasonably quickly
- Beyond the first two generations, helping expand the pool of scientific talent will come down to some earlier moves on the education front, as well as expanding Britain's universities and establishing technical colleges, as well as general international 'headhunting'. Getting a better educated (as well as healthier and happier/more stable) population will have more positive results than simply increasing the number of scientists and engineers, but it is a way towards those goals
- Whilst high-minded and abstract goals such as producing a morally *better* Britain, looking after its peoples, getting a much better historical repute regarding domestic policy and that difficult notion to quantify of 'prestige' could possibly motivate some 1794-1850 politicians and governments, framing some of these steps in more direct Economic, Hard Scientific, Military and National Power terms may result in easier acquiescence
A general aim will be to push for earlier inventions of:
- Tin Cans (1795 vs 1810) ; Steam Locomotives (1800ish vs 1814); Stethoscopes (1799 vs 1819), Portland Cement (1800 vs 1824), Matches (1803 vs 1827), Typewriters and Sewing Machines (1810ish vs 1829-30), Bicycles (1815 vs 1885) ; Wrench (1800 vs 1835)
- These would then be followed by the great rush of @ 1830s/40s inventions, such as the Revolver, Propeller, Refrigerator, Mechanical Reaper, Rubber Vulcanization, Staplers, Blueprints, Safety Pins, Pneumatic Tyres and more, coming around the 1820-1825 period
- Getting a workable internal combusting engine and proto-automobile will likely take until the 1830s and Samuel Brown (vs 1858 for the first ICE historically). Getting a workable automobile from there could take 20-25 further years, but there isn't an inordinate rush
- Not counting flying machines and devices possessed by the occupiers of Bletchley, the first flying machine will be something by George Cayley in the 1830s, followed by a properly developed aeroplane a decade or two later; some form of dirigible will be a bit earlier
- Dynamite, plastic, telephones, elevators, barbed wire, phonographs will likely come around the 1840-1850 period
- Broadly speaking, this will see the British dominance of the Workshop of the World period/First Industrial Revolution, in coal, iron and textiles, be continued into steel, chemicals, electricity, steam turbines, artificial fabrics, telephony and telegraphy of the Second Industrial Revolution, and thence onwards to the Third
- There may well be a Ministry of Science and Technology
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jemhouston
- Posts: 5883
- Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2022 12:38 am
Re: The Cards Reshuffled
Once France gets it's act together, you might see them going down the same path.
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Simon Darkshade
- Posts: 1680
- Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:55 am
Re: The Cards Reshuffled
They could try, but translating 'try' into 'achieve' is a different matter.
They won't have the same foreknowledge or guidance; they don't have the same economic or demographic advantages; they don't have the funding; their rulers will most likely be Bourbons (albeit different ones from Louis XVIII given the survival of the Dauphin/Louis XVII) ; they don't have the same capacity for long term planning; and they don't have the material advantages given by Bletchley.
They can certainly follow on from what occurs across the Channel initially, but certain developments and inventions cannot be easily replicated. For example, moving from a musket to a rifled musket won't be a huge jump requiring a great deal of new materials or facilities, but the next step (that of breachloading repeating rifles) will need that.
Looking at some of the inventions I listed, the French could certainly replicate tin cans and Portland Cement, but the more advanced inventions that should be coming out in Britain around 1820ish aren't as easily replicated or achievable to a state which will be under a Revolutionary regime until ~ 1805-1810, and then hit by the 1816 Year Without a Summer whilst still almost entirely agricultural.
There is capacity for swifter industrialisation and development in Belgium, which will likely be part of a United Netherlands; that runs into the roadblocks outlined for France, such as a lack of money, cheating opportunities, foreknowledge and guidance.
They won't have the same foreknowledge or guidance; they don't have the same economic or demographic advantages; they don't have the funding; their rulers will most likely be Bourbons (albeit different ones from Louis XVIII given the survival of the Dauphin/Louis XVII) ; they don't have the same capacity for long term planning; and they don't have the material advantages given by Bletchley.
They can certainly follow on from what occurs across the Channel initially, but certain developments and inventions cannot be easily replicated. For example, moving from a musket to a rifled musket won't be a huge jump requiring a great deal of new materials or facilities, but the next step (that of breachloading repeating rifles) will need that.
Looking at some of the inventions I listed, the French could certainly replicate tin cans and Portland Cement, but the more advanced inventions that should be coming out in Britain around 1820ish aren't as easily replicated or achievable to a state which will be under a Revolutionary regime until ~ 1805-1810, and then hit by the 1816 Year Without a Summer whilst still almost entirely agricultural.
There is capacity for swifter industrialisation and development in Belgium, which will likely be part of a United Netherlands; that runs into the roadblocks outlined for France, such as a lack of money, cheating opportunities, foreknowledge and guidance.