Fall and Rise: An ISOT

[Kunkmiester]

It's a paraphrase of Schlock Mercenary. Highly recommended reading.

I'm wondering if anyone has made a chart of gun sizes comparing shell weight, range, dispersion, gun size, powder charge size etc. Taken out to some amount of absurdity. Be interesting to see how range and throw weight go, and how gun size and such become more impractical with size.

[Simon Darkshade]

I've heard of it, but it isn't my cup of tea whatsoever.

I'm not sure if it has been done, but the largest made in DE (up to 1971) are the 36" howitzers of the Americans and British and the 40" American howitzers nicknamed the 'Roaring Forties' that were reactivated to see service in Korea. With the introduction of nuclear weapons, the big gun on land had something of an Indian summer, but that is fading as missile technology has advanced in leaps and bounds.

There was a post on Warships Projects (when it was still around) from back in ~2005 describing the physical limitations of Armstrong-Whitworth's gun barrel construction capacity in the pre WW1 period; IIRC, there was also a reasonably detailed quote in a similar (or the same) thread regarding Sir Robert Hadfields' talk of 20" or 21" shells post WW1 and pre WNT that was curtailed by the Admiralty that later made the jump to Navweaps. As I remember, the former made reference to 70ft being the infrastructure based limit pre WW1, which equates to a 24"/35 howitzer and an 18"/47 gun.

[Kunkmiester]

I was originally wondering if you'd done something like the Paris guns. They were basically a kludge, so a purpose build gun should be more effective in most ways.

At it's most basic I was looking at putting caliber, shell sizes etc. into a spreadsheet and plotting the curves, say 155mm up to 800mm. You could then plot out to 30, 50 or even 100 inches with some degree of error. I imagine you found something that gave you some idea of how much a 24 or 32 inch shell should weigh, so I'm sure there's something out there.

I imagine there's formulae for most of it though, given a set shell geometry, a certain diameter will yield a certain weight, and velocity and max range and such will follow. I know shell weights vary on date and purpose but you could estimate those if you knew what the basis for the filler percentage was.

You could probably get really fancy with it, but I'd leave that for someone at West Point who needs to write a useless paper.

[Simon Darkshade]

I have an old DOS program called BigGun.exe that I found somewhere back in the first half decade of the 2000s, possibly somewhere to do with Springsharp, that provided some detail on heavy naval artillery based on the gun, era of manufacture, shell design, gun calibre (size and barrel length), including what the ballpark weight of shells would be, their range at various elevations and their armour penetration.

The shells being used here employ some of the advances (stepfather advances, as it were) that would later become base bleed and rocket propulsion, along with sabots and actual wizardry.

The 'shell history' of the DE RN went from the 850lb of the 12"/50s -> 2000lb of the 15"/50s -> 3500lb of the 18"/50s -> 4500lb of the 20"/50s -> 5250lb of the 24"/50s, at least for APC.

[Simon Darkshade]

U-Boat Activity in the second half of June 1940:

14 June
German submarine U-47 sank British ship Balmoralwood southwest of Ireland; the crew of 41 would later be rescued.
German submarine U-101 stopped Greek ship Antonis Georgandis 300 miles west of Cape Finisterre, Spain with two warning shots from the submarine's 20mm deck gun. After the crew abandoned the ship, U-101 sank her with the deck gun.
German submarine U-38 sank Greek ship Mount Myrto southwest of Ireland, killing 4.

15 June
German submarine U-38 attacked Allied convoy HX-47 60 miles west of the Isles of Scilly off of southwestern England at 0100 hours, sinking Norwegian tanker Italia (killing 19, 16 were recsued) and Canadian ship Erik Boye (21 were rescued). British sloop HMS Fowley would bring the survivors to Plymouth, England on the following day.

16 June
The German submarine UA, which had been following British armed merchant cruiser HMS Andania for the past three days, fired two torpedoes south east of Iceland at 0029 hours; one of them struck the ship aft. Another torpedo launched eight minutes later also hit but failed to detonate. The Andania opened fire with her guns after seeing the torpedo wake but owing to rough seas and the darkness scored no hits. The ship was sinking by the stern and her 347 crew, two of them injured, were taken off by the Icelandic trawler Skallagimur which later transferred the to the destroyer HMS Forester (D 74) and they were taken to Scapa Flow, Scotland, United Kingdom. UA fired two more torpedoes at the sinking Andania, but both missed or were duds. The Andania had been a Cunard White Star Line Passenger Liner before being requisitioned by the Admiralty in Sep 1939.
At 1302 hours the 13,212-ton unescorted British motor merchant ship Wellington Star was hit in the bow by a G7a torpedo from German submarine U-101 about 300 miles west of Cape Finisterre, Spain. After the crew abandoned ship in four lifeboats, the submarine fired three coups de grâce at her, all three hit, but only one detonated, underneath the bridge. The U-101, commanded by Fritz Frauenheim, surfaced, questioned the survivors then sank the ship with 31 rounds from the deck gun at 1645 hours.

17 June
German submarine U-46 sank Greek ship Elpis 250 miles west of Cape Finisterre, Spain; the entire crew of 28 survived.

18 June
German submarine U-28 sank Finnish ship Sarmatia southwest of Ireland. ww2dbase [CPC]

German submarine U-32 sank Spanish trawler Sálvora, Spanish trawler Nuevo Ons, and Norwegian ship Altair southwest of Ireland.


20 June
At 0336 hours, German submarine U-38, commanded by Kapitänleutnant Heinrich Liebe, missed the 1,776-ton unescorted Swedish and neutral steam merchant Tilia Gorthon with a G7a torpedo and then stopped the vessel by gunfire about 45 miles west of the Isles of Scilly in the southwestern tip of England, United Kingdom. At 0412 hours, the Tilia Gorthon was hit in the engine room by another G7e torpedo after the crew had abandoned ship in two lifeboats and sank. The survivors were picked up by the British sloop HMS Leith (U 36). The Tilia Gorthon had previously been on voyage from Bahia, Brazil to Gothenburg, Sweden but was stopped by a British warship and sent to Liverpool, England, United Kingdom and then to Nantes, France, however, near the Loire a new order sent her to Quiberon Bay, France and finally ordered the ship back to Liverpool.

At 1533 hours, German submarine U-51 (Kapitänleutnant Dietrich Knorr) attacked the 4,876-ton British merchant steamer Otterpool of convoy HG-34F, carrying 8,180 tons of iron ore; the attack missed the target.

German submarine U-30 (Kapitänleutnant Fritz-Julius Lemp) attacked Allied convoy HG-34F, but all torpedoes missed. At 2142 hours, a second attack by U-30 succeeded, hitting the 4,876-ton British merchant steamer Otterpool with one stern torpedo. Otterpool sank about 130 miles west of the French island of Ushant. The master, 21 crew members and one gunner were lost. 16 crew members were picked up by British sloop HMS Scarborough (L 25) and landed at Liverpool, England, United Kingdom.

At 1315 hours, German submarine U-61 (Oberleutnant zur See Jürgen Oesten) observed how the unescorted and zigzagging 5,911-ton steam merchant Empire Conveyor was hit on the port side forward by a torpedo about 50 miles south of Barra Head, Hebrides, Scotland, United Kingdom. The attacker must have been German submarine U-122 (Korvettenkapitän Hans-Günther Looff), which was lost shortly afterwards but reported sinking a large freighter in a radio message at 0030 hours on 21 Jun 1940. The Empire Conveyor did not sink immediately, but because the aerials had been damaged the radio operator was unable to call for help. Luckily a flying boat on patrol in the area arrived, dropped bombs to keep the submarine submerged and alerted the British Admiralty. The tug HMS Amsterdam was sent out, escorted by the rescue tug HMS Atherstone (L 05) and the destroyer HMS Campbell (D 60), but at 1600 hours she suddenly sank before the ships arrived. The crew had abandoned ship in three lifeboats and several rafts, but one boat swamped during launch. The master, the second engineer and the cook were lost. 38 crew members were picked up by HMS Campbell (D 60) after six hours.

The 7,638-ton French tanker Brumarire was torpedoed and damaged by a single torpedo from German submarine U-25 (Korvettenkapitän Viktor Schütze) in the Atlantic Ocean at 0128 hours.

21 June
At 0846 hours, HMS Cape Howe (X 02), a Special Service Vessel, disguised as the Prunella, was hit on the starboard side near the bridge by one of two torpedoes fired by German submarine U-28 about 100 miles west of the Isles of Scilly at the southwestern tip of Britain. The explosion blew open the hatches of No. 1 hold, put the Asdic and steering gear out of order and mortally injured two crewmen. The panic party abandoned the now slowly circling ship in two lifeboats but the submarine did not surface but fired a coup de grâce after about an hour that hit on port side amidships, causing her to slowly settle by the bow until sinking with a list to port at 1230 hours. 54 became missing and would be never found; 40 would be rescued.

At 0411 hours the 1,144-ton unescorted Finnish freighter Hilda was hit by one torpedo from German submarine U-52 commanded by Kapitänleutnant Otto Salman and sank in a few minutes in the Bay of Biscay, killing 5. The master and ten crew members survived aboard a lifeboat.

At 2007 hours, German submarine U-47 under command of Kapitänleutnant Günther Prien fired a torpedo at a tanker in the middle of Allied convoy HX-49 in a position 50 miles south-southwest of Cape Clear in the southwestern tip of Ireland. The tanker was the 13,056-ton British San Fernando which was carrying 13,500 tons of crude oil and 4,200 tons of fuel oil, and she was hit and came to a stop. Prien then fired two more torpedoes but did not observe the result as he had to submerge rapidly to avoid being seen by a nearby steamer. The damaged San Fernando was taken under tow by two tugs.

At 1636 hours the 8,627-ton British merchant steamer Yarraville in Allied convoy 65-X was hit by a single torpedo from German submarine U-43, caught fire and sank southwest of Figueira da Foz, Portugal. Five crew members were lost. The master and 44 crew members (seven of them wounded) were picked up by the French trawler Marie Gilberte and landed at Gibraltar.

At 1753 hours the 5,809-ton unescorted Belgian freighter Luxembourg was hit aft by a G7e torpedo from German submarine U-38 and sank west of Saint-Nazaire, France. The ship had been bound for Antwerp, Belgium but was diverted to Bordeaux, France and anchored at Le Verdon on 20 Jun 1940 when she was ordered to leave for Falmouth, England, United Kingdom. Five men were killed and one wounded of the 46 crew members on board.

At 0817 hours, the 1,177-ton unescorted Dutch steamer Berenice, carrying 1,000 tons of manganese ore and 22 passengers, was hit by one torpedo amidships by German submarine U-65 (Kapitänleutnant Hans-Gerrit von Stockhausen) just off the island of Belle Île, France, causing her to sink within three minutes, killing 21 passengers and some of the crewmembers. A coastal vessel picked up nine survivors, including the master and Marsman's wife, the only surviving passenger.

22 June
At 1804 hours, German submarine U-65 reported the sinking of an unescorted tanker of 7,000 tons with a spread of two G7e torpedoes about 70 miles southwest of Penmarch in the Bay of Biscay. The ship was immediately covered in burning oil and apparently broke in two before it sank. The ship was the 7,011-ton French tanker Monique.

German submarine U-122 became missing in the Atlantic Ocean somewhere west of Britain and Ireland; the crew of 49 were never seen again.

The 13,056-ton British tanker San Fernando, damaged by German submarine U-47 on the previous day, sank. The master Arthur Richard Buckley and 48 crew members were picked up by the British sloops HMS Fowey (L 15) and HMS Sandwich (L 12) and landed at Plymouth, England, United Kingdom.

The 9,026-ton Norwegian motor tanker Eli Knudsen had been in Allied convoy HX-49, which was dispersed approximately 100 miles southwest of Cape Clear, Ireland after German submarine U-47 had torpedoed the San Fernando in the middle of convoy at 2007 hours on 21 Jun 1940. At 0336 hours German submarine U-32 torpedoed the Eli Knudsen, one of the slowest ships in convoy. All crew members abandoned ship in lifeboats and were picked up a few hours later by the sloop HMS Sandwich and taken to Liverpool, England, United Kingdom. The tanker remained afloat, although she would not survive the incident.

At 0158 hours the 3,999-ton unescorted Norwegian steam merchant ship Randsfjord, dispersed from Allied convoy HX-49, was hit by one G7a torpedo from German submarine U-30 about 80 miles south-southwest of Queenstown, Ireland. The torpedo struck on the port side in the foreship and caused the tanker to sink after three minutes. The master and three crew members were lost. Two men were crushed and injured between the starboard lifeboat and the side of the ship when they lost their grip while lowering themselves down to the boat. Some men jumped overboard and were later picked up by the boat. The submarine surfaced and the Germans questioned the survivors, handed them a bottle of brandy before leaving the area at full speed after two destroyers were spotted.

At 0217 hours the 5,154-ton unescorted and unarmed Greek merchant steamer Neion was hit in the engine room by a G7a torpedo from German submarine U-38 while steaming without navigational lights lit on a non-evasive course at 10 knots in the Bay of Biscay about 40 miles west-southwest of Belle Île off the coast of Bretagne, France. One crew member was lost. The master, eight officers and 22 crew members abandoned ship in one lifeboat before she sank by the stern after five minutes. The cargo of naphtha drums was recovered in 1948.

24 June
German submarine U-47 sank Panamanian ship Cathrine with the deck gun about 300 miles west of Land's End in southwestern England. As the entire crew of 19 escaped to lifeboats, they were given food and red wine by the crew of U-47 before being set adrift for their eventual rescue.

25 June
German submarine U-51 attacked Allied convoy OA-172 about 370 miles west of Land's End in southwestern England between 1545 and 1930 hours, sinking British steamer Windsorwood (all 40 survived) and British tanker Saranac (4 killed, 39 survived).

The 3,828-ton Norwegian cargo ship Crux, built in 1923 and owned at the time of her loss by Bergenske Dampskibsselskab A/B, on voyage from Cardiff in Britain to Rio De Janeiro in Brazil, was torpedoed and sunk by German submarine UA in the Atlantic Ocean.

German submarine U-51 hit 12,049-ton British steam tanker Saranac in Allied convoy OA-172 with one torpedo about 270 miles west-southwest of Lands End at the southwestern tip of Britain at 1551 hours. The ships' crew immediately abandoned the ship. At 1737 hours, the submarine surfaced and failed to sink the tanker by gunfire. At 1915 hours, another torpedo was fired, finally sinking Saranac. Four crew members were lost in this sinking. 31 survivors, including the master Vernon Horace Alcock, were picked up by British destroyer HMS Hurricane (H 06) commanded by Lieutenant Commander H. C. Simms, RN and landed at Plymouth in southern Britain. 9 survivors were picked up by British trawler Caliph and landed at Berehaven, County Cork, Ireland.

26 June
German submarine U-29 stopped Greek ship Dimitris with a shot across her bow off Cape Finisterre, Spain at 1530 hours. After the crew abandoned ship, the Greek ship was sunk by gunfire.

Norwegian merchant ship Crux was sunk 300 miles west of Cape St. Vincent, Portugal at 0228 hours by a German submarine; the crew of 30 took to lifeboats and would be rescued on the following day.

27 June
German submarine U-47 shelled Norwegian merchant ship Lenda off southwest Ireland at 0400 hours; 1 was killed and 27 survived. At 1700 hours, U-47 shelled Dutch tanker Leticia in the same area; 25 of the crew took to lifeboats, while the other 3 who dove into the water were rescued by U-47 and brought to the lifeboats; the crew of U-47 offered the survivors first aid material, sausages, and wine before leaving.

28 June
German submarine U-30 sank British ship Llanarth 250 miles west of Brest, France at 0200 hours.


29 June
German submarine U-51 sank British decoy ship HMS Edgehill with three torpedoes southwest of Ireland.

German submarine U-47 torpedoed and sank British ship Empire Toucan southwest of Ireland, which broke in half; 3 were killed and 31 were rescued. Destroyer HMS Hurricane scuttled the aft portion of the ship which remained afloat.

German submarine U-26 sank Greek steamer Frangoula B. Goulandris southwest of Ireland; 6 were killed and 32 were rescued.

30 June
German submarine U-65 and U-43 attacked Allied convoy SL-25 300 files west of Brest, France. At 2227 hours, U-43 sank British ship Avelona Star; 1 was killed and 84 were rescued. U-65 damaged British ship Clan Ogilvy, which would need to be towed away; she would remain out of commission until Oct 1940.

German submarine U-47 sank Greek ship Georgios Kyriakides west of Ireland; all 30 crew members survived.

German submarine U-26 sank Estonian ship Merkur (killing 4) and Norwegian ship Belmoira (all 25 crew members survived) off of France.

From the above data, which is derived from the excellent ww2db.com/ , a number of possible conclusions can be drawn:

1.) U-47 and U-38 end up in Lyonesse at the time of the ISOT; for storyline purposes, the U-Boats end up atop a hill and in a pond, respectively
2.) U-51 and U-30, given the place of attack 130 west of Ushant, are also landlocked
3.) U-28 and U-32 are right in the teeth of British ASW air and sea forces in Ireland
4.) U-61 and U-122 are also, being in the Hebrides, right in an area of major ASW concentration, being a 1943 ASW training area
5.) U-43 is clear operating off Portugal, as is U-29
6.) U-65 in the northern Bay of Biscay may be in a bit of a pickle
7.) UA is out in the deep North Atlantic, but will be under air cover
8.) U-26 is the other boat that gets a mention in June, appearing to come around the north of the British Isles, striking off the SW of Ireland and then France. Extrapolating this course, they would either be landlocked or end up in the middle of Scapa Flow; I lean towards the latter for humour purposes

That results in 5 U-Boats definitely out of action and 4 ending up right in circumstances where escape is very, very unlikely. That brings losses to 22 U-Boats by ~25 June, including U-47 and Prien.

[bobbins66]

Loving this. The sight of a u boat in one of the ponds will be hysterical.
But what about other neutral or allied shipping? Similarly displaced or just moved out of the way?

[Kunkmiester]

I wonder if a '43 u boat close enough to a British ship or land would have gotten transferred too.

[Simon Darkshade]

Bobbins, I shall endeavour to live up to the high praise and expectation. I was going to try and write some stuff up tonight, but after an attempted robbery/snatch and grab in the first 5 minutes of my shift this afternoon, I didn’t really feel in the zone.

Neutral and allied shipping of 1940 is nudged to the nearest safe side, as it were.

Kunkmeister, that is a theoretical possibility, but we do know that in @, the German U-Boats had been ‘withdrawn’ from the fray by Donitz. In DE, this happens a bit earlier. The chances of a German U-Boat being in the immediate vicinity of British warships in British coastal waters is quite, quite small.

On consideration, I just realised that Habbakuk is also in play:

“The final turn of the tide in the war's longest and bloodiest battle came in August, when the largest 'ship' in the world entered the fray. Through the efforts of Canadian industry and workers, nothing short of a modern miracle of production had occurred, as HMS Habakkuk was commissioned in Saint John's on August 4th. Construction had begun in November 1942 and, through the application of new industrial design spells and ice magic, the massive pykrete ship was completed and fitted out by the end of June. Even as it prepared for deployment in top secret in an sealed Newfoundland naval base, there were many voices on both sides of the Atlantic who derided the ship as ludicrous, a colossal waste of resources and entirely unworkable. After it put to sea for the first time, it was to prove them both right and wrong. To keep the bergship cold enough to remain solid for a protracted period of time, an entirely new freezing solution had been developed by Canadian alchemists and four wizards assigned to the sole duty of casting ice magics over different portions of the hull, which all raised the expense of the vessel to over £50 million, whilst Habbakuk's engines could only propel her forward at 2.5 knots, rather than her design speed of 8 knots. Forward she crept into the middle of the North Atlantic until she reached her destination on September 15th and halted, creating a floating airfield and shipping base some 1500 miles out in the ocean. Habakkuk was to prove valuable in this role of an artificial island, allowing not only her intended deployment of twin and four engine patrol bombers, but the support and refueling of both dragons and flying boats on the high seas. Furthermore, her presence allowed the growth of a floating armada around her, extending the range and operational efficiency of anti-submarine vessels and escorts. Aircraft operating from Habakkuk were responsible for the sinking of 38 German U-Boats by the end of the war, yet she was never quite considered to be a true aircraft carrier.”

[Simon Darkshade]

Part of the next instalment:

7th Panzer Division HQ, Dieppe, Normandy

"Herr General!"

"What is it, Hauptman?"

"All of our radios have gone dead and none of the vehicles will start. And there is a man in the air.”

"What?! What nonsense is this?”

”Look, Herr General. There!”

General Erwin Rommel pushed past his aide to see what Hauptman Von Köpenick was raving about. There, fifty metres up above them in midair was a robed man, pointing some sort of staff down at them.

One of the guards went to level his rifles at the impossible sight, but as he did, he was distracted by a strange approaching skirl.

Bagpipes.

”Achtung! Tommies!”

Yet even as the warning cry rang out, Rommel could see the guards keeling over with arrows jutting out of their eyes before he was pushed bodily back under cover by the blast of a fireball.

”On them lads!” roared Colonel Jack Churchill, leveling his broadsword at the command tents as he charged forward at the head of his Commando platoon.

A few bloody minutes later, the erstwhile commanding general was escorted at bayonet point to where the commander of the special assault company stood, legs akimbo and hands on his hips.

”General Rommel, this is Brigadier the Lord Flashheart.”

“General! All deine Stützpunkt sind gehören uns! For you, the war is over! Soon, you will be back in England; I daresay Mr Churchill will be interested to see you!”

Rommel said nothing, still groggy from the effects of the magic.

Flashheart rolled his eyes in exasperation. “Bloody Fritz. They don’t like it up ‘em. How long until Rimmer is here with the dragons?”

“Another two minutes, My Lord.”

“Woof woof!”

……………….

Having never traveled by dragon before, General Rommel was perhaps understandably preoccupied by the experience and did not look up as they sped back across the Channel at only a few scant yards above the waves.

If he had, he would have seen a small number of the fighter-bombers unleashed upon his Panzer division. Hundreds of Typhoons, Thunderbolts, Beaufighters, Hurricanes and Tempests sped their way over the narrow sea, their wings heavy with rockets, napalm and cluster bombs. Throughout the day, nine separate waves of attacks and were to strike the 7th Panzer, inflicting sufficient damage to render it distinctly combat ineffective.

In another world, another time, another place, they had earned themselves the name of the Ghost Division.

Now, they were just ghosts.

[jemhouston]

There be dragons. I really hope they don't eat Adolf, it might give them food poisonings.

[Simon Darkshade]

Something else will happen in that case.

I’ll just note that Flashheart, in his broken German, informs Rommel that ‘All your base are belong to us.’

[Simon Darkshade]

A bit of brainstorming:

Two divisions (5th Panzer to follow) being knocked out with as much thought and exertion as a boy gives to stamping out an anthill (ie not very much at all) takes place on June 16, or the same day as Norway.

It will follow on a bit on the initial French reaction to the news from the British (which has been quickly double checked with some flying visits to England by a French delegation lead by the Undersecretary of War on the 14th/15th) and how it shifts the Weygand/Pétain/Laval vs Reynard/Blum/Mandel argument. Whilst DE doesn’t see the exact same French cabinet rupture occur in June (occurring in July after the Great Retreat to Algeria), there is enough information fed to Reynaud of who the worries are. There will be an overflight above Bordeaux of two of the pre-production Avro York 8 engined superheavy bombers during the meeting, but even gestures may not completely sway the situation, at least until an unexpected few fellows turn up.

What is very likely in the event of a split is a withdrawal to FNA and Britain plus other forces melting into the countryside; the British and Commonwealth liberation will come and is simply a matter of shipping, landing craft, planning and the right weather. That there will be a specific promise offered that it will come as soon as possible; that may not be soon enough to sway the whole of Weygand faction. As matters stand, there is sufficient shipping and air cover to get a corps in Britanny and a division in the Cotentin within 1 week to 10 days, with 1.5 divisions per major port/week once the ports are secure; that means Brest, Cherbourg, Lorient and Saint Malo.

Part of the reason for the delay is that I’m leaning towards the French fighting on and the British beginning an administrative landing in Northern France based on a few factors:

- Admin landings don’t need landing craft, just shipping
- The tacair strikes are going to shock the Jim Christ out of Germany in terms of capability (plus BC going for Berlin and the mediums starting to hammer the German supply lines)
- I had an idea about how to change some minds in France
- British advantage is not so completely huge as to render Jerry completely obsolete/lacking in threat
- It would be too politically unpopular to not “go” when the window is open and thus push the war well into 1941 (no good invasion weather until May)
- Money, money, money! Winning the war sooner saves it, as well as not spending as much on extended war production. DE Britain is better off economically, but not utterly radically so
- Whilst Brooke (Dark Earth version) is reasonably circumspect and cautious, there are some more offensively minded/aggressive commanders who are champing at the bit to go

[jemhouston]

Rein in Winston "Action Today" Churchill if at all possible.

[Simon Darkshade]

The Minister of War (read @ Defence)/Leader of the Liberals and Brooke have already been in to do that and succeeded in redirecting his immediate impulses to Norway. Now a different delegation headed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer and including other powerbrokers will come to present an argument that runs somewhat against the case for complete circumspection.

In essence, Churchill has stopped thinking in terms of invading France after an invasion and started thinking about how to keep the French in as long as possible as to allow the movement of forces to Britanny and the Cotentin. Even a few weeks will establish enough troops there to dig in a bridgehead.

What has changed?

As said in the last post, the capacity of tacair; the desire to not have to wait for 11 months, with all that entails; saving money through going for victory*; and getting a bit more of a clue about the overall situation and military balance. Additionally, I thought of a way to break the Bordeaux debate.

The DE Churchill doesn't have the same degree of a reputation for rash planning, as the different Dardanelles Campaign of DE WW1 was not a screw up, but a victory.** With shored up arguments, there will be a move to get British forces shipping across the Channel under the mother of all air umbrellas.


* = Here I was kind of inspired by the bit in Eric Harry's Arc Light where there is an economic imperative towards a quicker victory over the USSR to prevent the badly injured US economy from becoming terminal
** = "A major catalyst of the Great War was the final eruption of long simmering tensions in the Balkans into a major regional war between Byzantine Greece, Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria and Romania on the one hand and the Ottoman Empire on the other. The Balkan War of 1911/12 saw the final elimination of Ottoman territory in Europe. Serbia and Bulgaria greatly expanded their territory, but it was the Greeks who made some of the most striking gains, securing most of Thessaly, Epirus and Thrace, save for a long stretch of Aegean coastline occupied by the armies of Tsar Ferdinand. Control of the Dardanelles was once again in Greek hands thanks to a daring offensive spearheaded by the Varangian Guard, although contested by the Ottoman possession of Canakkale and ancient Troy on the southern shore of the strait. An independent Albanian state was reestablished for the first time in centuries and it wasted no time in seeking close ties with Constantinople. The Turks held back in their expansive inland capital of Angora and waited for a reckoning.

War came to Europe and the world in the summer of 1914 and as the two alliance blocs lumbered into each other, the neutral powers found themselves inexorably compelled to take sides. The Ottomans signed a secret defensive pact with Germany on August 2nd and received support for four key proposals: abolition of all remaining foreign capitulations, restoration of its European territories, annexation of Constantinople and control of the Straits and a war indemnity. Animosity towards Britain and the other Entente powers had been growing since their open support of the Greeks in the Balkan War. An Ottoman-Bulgarian Pact was signed on August 25th, followed by mobilization of the potent Imperial Ottoman Navy. The Turks simply had more to gain from alignment with the Central Powers than it did from any arrangement with the Entente and the early course of the war did little to disabuse significant elements of the Sublime Porte from their pro-German position.

Ottoman entry into the war came on November 3rd with elements of the Turkish fleet and the German Mediterranean Squadron breaking out from Alexandretta and bombarding the port of Farmagusta on British Cyprus. Britain declared war on the next day, followed swiftly by France, Russia and Spain. The Ottoman Fourth Army gathered in Gaza for an offensive through Sinai towards the Suez Canal, the Fifth Army was headquartered in Baghdad and the Sixth Army began to engage Russian border fortifications at Olty and Sarikamis. The cream of the Imperial Army, twenty divisions of the First and Second Armies, were launched against the neutral Byzantine Greeks on November 7th, striking against the heavy fortifications of the Kocaeli Line. A declaration of war by the Byzantine Greeks soon followed, with an Allied mission arriving in Athens within a week.

Disaster soon struck for the Greeks. The Third Army, including the elite Imperial Guard Division, was landed on the northern side of the Sea of Marmara by strong forces of the Imperial Navy on November 12th and proceeded to overrun the Greek forces holding the Gallipoli Peninsula by December 8th. Bulgaria had yet to enter the war, but still pinned down substantial Greek forces in Thrace along the border. Constantinople was sorely pressed and the broader Entente grand strategy of the war was endangered – the Straits in the control of the Turks meant that the Russian Empire would be cut off from trade and vital supplies coming through the Black Sea. Planning began in London, Paris and Cairo for a grand amphibious offensive to open the Dardanelles and send a battlefleet through to Constantinople. Containment of the Ottoman and German vessels at Alexandretta was a simple matter of minefields and a predreadnought battlesquadron and the majority of the Royal Navy in the Mediterranean was mustered for the historical landing operations off the Gallipoli Peninsula that began in the early hours of April 25th, 1915.

The Gallipoli Campaign, its heroism, brutality, suffering and ultimate success are well known and need no repetition here. The relief of Constantinople in June 1915 kept Byzantine Greece in the war, but did not prove an end to the war. The stalemates in Thrace, Smyrna and Salonika would only be broken in 1918 and the Anatolian Front was fought in terrain tailor-made for defensive operations. It was in the desert and river wars of Palestine, Syria and Mesopotamia that the war in the Middle East was won. "

From 'The Road to Miklagard' in the 1947 stories or 'A Boys Own Book of the Byzantine Empire', S. Holmes, Collins, 1969

[Simon Darkshade]

German submarine U-47
June 14 1940

"Report, Leutnant!"

"Herr Kapitan..." How could he put this... "We are grounded. Atop a hill, by the look of it. No ocean in sight."

"What?!" Korvettenkapitan Gunther Prien rushed to the periscope, pushing aside the clearly delusional Leutnant.

Apparently not so delusional.

They were stranded atop a small green hillock amid fields of wheat. A short way off, several farmers looked up at the U-Boat, quite astonished.

...............

German submarine U-38

"Why have we stopped?"

"We appear to have run out of water in front of us, Herr Kapitan. From what I can see, we are in some sort of duck pond. And the ducks don't seem to be too happy."

....................

"And two further German submarines, identified as U-30 and U-51, have similarly ended up in the middle of Lyonesse, the latter in the middle of a Home Guard exercise."

"Casualties?"

"Five of the German sailors were killed by machine gun and anti-tank rifle fire before their captain gave them up."

"Anything else?"

"Home Fleet are reporting two definite U-Boat contacts in the Hebrides detected by land, sea and air forces. A full search is currently underway."

Commodore Jonathan Shepherd nodded with satisfaction. At least there was some good news amid the rush of madness today.

"Well, Lieutenant More, whatever has happened, that is at least four of the blighters we don't have to worry about. Hopefully six."


...................................

Bordeaux
2230 June 15 1940

Prime Minister Paul Reynaud was a troubled man with much to be troubled about. Paris had fallen to the Boche just yesterday morning, but now...now this news from Britain could change so many things. If it were true. If it were true. Could it be true?

"I tell you, it is a trick, a damned English trick!" raged Weygand. "A ruse to seize our Empire. We must make peace! It is the only way."

"It must be admitted that seemed utterly beyond belief. Yet the telephone calls we have had from General de Gaulle and his delegation just before confirm it, or large part of it. The English have thousands of tanks and aircraft and hundreds of thousands of men that he has seen." And other...things...but one step at a time. Reynauld responded carefully.

"Previous to yesterday, had General Brooke ever seemed mad to you?"

"No, Prime Minister."

"We have also all seen the photographs of the new island."

"That is beside the point. We must act to save France from destruction. This talk is just fantastic - the English have lost their minds." Marshal Petain spoke with a quiet dignity and resignation, having already surrendered to the only solution he could see.

There was an almost imperceptible knock on the door of the ad hoc Cabinet room.

"Enter!"

"Prime Minister, it is General de Gaulle - he has returned! General Brooke and Monsieur Eden are with him and..."

The aide never got the chance to finish before the door was pushed open by de Gaulle. He was followed through by the British officials and his staff and another. He was an old figure in an old uniform, yet his stride was strong and his eyes afire.

"Mon centre cède, ma droite recule, situation excellente, j'attaque. J'attaque, gentlemen. They were dark hours twenty six years ago, but it is always darkest before the dawn."

"But Maréchal...you're dead!"

"Do I look dead, Maréchal Petain? Is this what you have become after Verdun?"

"We are defeated."

"No longer. Where I am from, the Boche had overran and conquered the whole of France, but we still fight on. Here, that may no longer happen - will no longer happen! However it has come, our deliverance is here." said Marshal Ferdinand Foch fiercly.

"Monsieur le Prime Minister, I am come from England. It is as they say. They have the armies and planes to turn the tide, even now." de Gaulle spoke slowly, as if relishing each word.

"Prime Minister Churchill has instructed me to offer an expeditionary force of at least 100 divisions and 6,000 aircraft and the full resources of the British Empire to carry on the war until we achieve final victory over Germany and Italy. Should this be sufficient, we can begin landing the first divisions in Britanny and Normandy tomorrow and begin operations to sweep the Luftwaffe from the skies of France. As a further sign of our intents and capabilities, RAF Bomber Command will be attacking Berlin tonight with 2500 heavy bombers." Eden paused, not for dramatic effect, but as the sound of a very loud aircraft overhead made conversation difficult. "That is one of our eight engined bombers on its way to Rome."

"Within two weeks, we can establish an impenetrable bastion in Britanny and the north west. Once we have built up sufficient materiel, we can begin a full scale counterattack against the Germans." General Brooke, himself still getting used to the incredible shift of fortunes, said softly.

"What about their Panzer divisions? They have cut through our lines like knives through butter!" Weygand sounded hollow, like a broken man, yet somehow, somehow, there seemed to be flicker of flame within him, rekindled.

"We'll be dealing with the two within immediate range tomorrow morning."

[Bernard Woolley]

Foch has returned! Hooray!

[Simon Darkshade]

Indeed. The background to it is that the DE Ferdinand Foch lives longer, obviously, and was part of the general movement out to North Africa in 1940. As of 1943, he was in Britain for some high level meetings as a (ceremonial) part of a French delegation; he was going to present colours to a re-established French field army as part of the Overlord build up.

They haven't made the jump, so he would have been left without much to do until a novel suggestion came in from a doctor attached to SOE HQ who had some rather high level connections.

[jemhouston]

Times are a changing.

[Simon Darkshade]

Rather rapidly.

If the French don't capitulate, then the Britanny and Cotentin bastions can be established without a huge degree of difficulty, given the reach and strength of British and Commonwealth tactical airpower. These can be reinforced by administrative landings of troops a lot quicker than amphibious landings of troops, equipment, stores, fuel and effectively everything else, as well as not being subject to the limited numbers of LSTs and other landing craft.

The difference is effectively ending the war before Christmas 1940 or having it drag into at least mid 1941. By keeping the French in the fight, the BEF/British Liberation Army can get across and build up much, much quicker. The threats to them consist of the Luftwaffe, which is outnumbered, outgunned and outpositioned; and the few remaining operational U-Boats.

Available U-Boats, excluding those lost in the above post, U-28 and U-32 (squashed between Ireland and Lyonesse in the teeth of British ASW in the Western Approaches) and U-26 (I need to write up its appearance in the middle of Scapa Flow when I have a bit more time):

19 Training: U-2, U-3, U-4, U-5, U-6, U-7, U-8, U-10, U-11, U-14, U-17, U-18, U-19, U-20, U-21, U-23, U-24, U-120, U-121
19 Active: U-9, U-25, U-29, U-34, U-37, U-43, U-46, U-48, U-52, U-56, U-57, U-58, U-59, U-60, U-62, U-99, U-100, U-101, U-102
23 Lost: U-1, U-12, U-13, U-15, U-16, U-22, U-27, U-31, U-33, U-35, U-36, U-39, U-40, U-41, U-42, U-44, U-45, U-49, U-50, U-53, U-54, U-55, U-63

Even if every boat was pulled off training, there still wouldn't be an overwhelming undersea threat.

[Bernard Woolley]

Indeed. The background to it is that the DE Ferdinand Foch lives longer, obviously, and was part of the general movement out to North Africa in 1940.

The @ Foch was younger than Petain, so conceiveably he could still have been alive in @ 1940. I have wondered for a while how things might have panned out if he had been alive. Foch might have put a bit of steel into the French government's backbone.

"Do I look dead, Maréchal Petain? Is this what you have become after Verdun?"

From his experience of 1918, IMVHO, I'd think that Foch would know all too well how defeatist Petain could become. He was a fine general, but he needed someone superior to counter his defeatist tendencies.

I did take a pic of Maréchal Ferdinand Foch's statue near Victoria Station when I was in London for a walking tour of statues and war memorials. Interestingly, the statue was intended to be at the other end of the small park, facing towards Hyde Park Corner. However, someone had the bright idea of placing him at the other end, facing the station, so that he could keep an eye on his countrymen arriving at Victoria.
What makes me a little sad is that the French take less care of an almost identical statue than we do. The French one is covered in bird guano, for example.