History, Politics And Current Affairs

Jotun wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2026 4:33 am First and foremost, congratulations on chapter 400!

Things are going to be quite exciting in Poland. That was my attempt at Brit style understatement…

Seriously, the Soviet countermeasures (sending Alpha Group and other SOF plus certainly paratroopers for a bit of regime change) are so obvious and predictable that I would be surprised and disappointed if the Polish armed forces did not set a trap for just that operation. And the Polish government being anywhere BUT in Warsaw.

Militaries plan for EVERYTHING. so the Poles will have taken a hard, close look at how the Red Army took Kabul, and extrapolated what a similar operation would look like with Warsaw and the Polish government as targets. And the Poles had more than 25 years to fine tune their possible response.

That said: WARSZAWO WALCZ!
Ahem.

Elsewhere in Poland, hostilities should be flaring up as soon as the Kremlin's orders to take over reach the in-country Soviet forces,.

The Soviet command structure in country, especially the top echelons, and all of the KGB detachments, are going to face lots of kinetic attention. The Poles would be complete fools if KATYN did not incorporate such actions, since the USSR with absolute certainty will NOT sit idle for 48 hours.

And the Soviets, no doubt, have upgraded their own plans from 1980-81. The Defense Ministry no doubt updated those plans with variants expecting a 1968 outcome (passive resistance from civilians, Army stays in their garrisons), to open armed resistance from not just the population, but also the Armed Forces. At a minimum, they should be able to secure the LOCs. Whether they can do any more-with a very active guerilla movement (now supported by NATO with SOF, deliveries of things that go boom when properly planted, and so on) is another matter.

Clemenceau might be easier to restore to limited service than you think, because the French still have a nuclear industry (= ample skilled people and infrastructure for high pressure steam turbines) and coal fired power stations (= ample skilled people and infrastructure for high pressure steam boilers).
Turbines - they can still make blades and bearings domestically.
Boilers which are U/S are normally in need of retubing. That's a lost art if you do not have an industry which uses high pressure boilers, they do.

The diesel pumps and generators are even easier. Now, she'd be impossibly expensive to restore a combat asset - 18-24 months in a full-fledged dockyard 24/7 work for about a 10-to-15-year life extension - and that's obviously not worth doing unless they expect a long war and higher risk of loss for their sole carrier. In that risk environment cost is a tertiary or quaternary consideration. So possible in the right strategic risk environment but only in such a risk environment.

In TLW, the RAN adapted the last two old River class frigates in reserve to modern service precisely because they knew that a Confrontation was around five years.

Cheers: mark

Happy 400th Bernard.

Good show all around!

Jonathan

Aside from helping Poland by inserting SpecOps forces, I wonder if NATO would give serious consideration to pushing into East Germany and Czechoslovakia. If the Warsaw Pact forces are seen to be digging in and assuming a defensive posture it'd be worth carefully considering.

FrankClarady1965 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2026 5:20 pm Aside from helping Poland by inserting SpecOps forces, I wonder if NATO would give serious consideration to pushing into East Germany and Czechoslovakia. If the Warsaw Pact forces are seen to be digging in and assuming a defensive posture it'd be worth carefully considering.

Assume the old free polish soldiers living in the UK who fought during World War II are to old to restart a new Free Polish Army to aid the Poles at home.

Cihatari wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2026 10:08 pmThis is where events get out of Soviet control.

Now that reminds me of a quote from a film set in the Cold War!

Cihatari wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2026 10:08 pmHappy 400th Jan!

JBG wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2026 3:19 amHappy 400th Bernard.

Lordroel wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2026 2:57 amGood update and a happy 400th.

Jotun wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2026 4:33 amFirst and foremost, congratulations on chapter 400!

Thank you. Never thought I would get this far in a million years! It's all down to my loyal readers, thanks to you all.

James1978 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2026 10:09 pmGood chapter!

Thank you.

James1978 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2026 10:09 pmI do so love translation apps. That was fun!

Translation apps have come on a long way in recent years. It's not all that long since they would simply churn out a load of rubbish!

James1978 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2026 10:09 pmRandom question. What is the peacetime establishment of RAF fighter/attack squadrons?

It's generally 14-16 aircraft.

James1978 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2026 10:09 pmThe geopolitical intrigue and mental gymnastics needed to explain southern Africa in TLWverse boggles the mind.

Southern Africa seems to be perennially SNAFU to some extent in @, or whatever TL it appears in!

James1978 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2026 10:09 pmHow much effort have General Sumner /AFNORTH made to get units out the the US National Reserve? You can't get what you don't ask for, but you can also certainly lose what you thought you were getting if someone else needs it more before you get it.

The good General is currently asking for the Moon from both US and UK National Reserves. As you say, if you don't ask, you don't get. However, he sees anything he actually gets as a bonus.

James1978 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2026 10:09 pmIn that vein, how much of the forces committed to LION does COMAFNORTH actually "own" as opposed to be lent by SACUER. I have a sneaking suspicion AFNORTH won't get to keep the US XVIII Corps, and COMNON might wants those marines back.

COMAFNORTH 'owns' everything other than US XVIII Corps. The marines are part of his strategic reserve. If a serious attack does develop in the High North, they would in likelihood go to COMNON.

James1978 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2026 10:09 pmKeep up the good work!

Will do my best!

jemhouston wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2026 10:41 pm If Poland goes, what about the Baltic States and Ukraine?

Both of those groups are already restless and have been committing acts of resistance.

jemhouston wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2026 10:41 pmI'm slightly disappointed by the Soviet Defense Minister use of profanity. I always thought the Russian language had more choices than that.

And here was me thinking I have managed to include a good variety!

MFOM wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2026 10:43 pmDon't speak polish but the word neutrality looks similar in polish.

I don't either, but Google Translate is your friend.

Matt Wiser wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2026 2:42 amWoo-Hoo! 400 now... BZ as usual, and so on to business:

Thanks very much.

Matt Wiser wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2026 2:42 amSo the Poles are trying to quit the war? There will be a lot of Soviets (KGB, MVD, and Ground Forces) coming in to secure the LOCs, Soviet bases, and the major cities.

Well, we'll see soon enough.

Matt Wiser wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2026 2:42 amThe Finns have been doing well, and things in AFNORTH are going to heat up.

It is easy to forget that the FDF was potentially formidable. In 1989 they could mobilise 540,000 personnel. Today it is 280,000 backed by a pool reserve pool of nearly 870,000. Add the Swedish reinforcements to that and that is formidable.

Matt Wiser wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2026 2:42 amSo Clemenceau is coming out of her long rest, or so the French Navy hopes.

At least she should not need to fight...

Matt Wiser wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2026 2:42 amThings in Africa are getting...interesting.

I like your use of understatement!

Matt Wiser wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2026 2:42 amNice job again, and get with 401!

Thank you very much. I am already working on what comes next.

Jotun wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2026 4:33 amThings are going to be quite exciting in Poland. That was my attempt at Brit style understatement…

I think you've spent too much time around us!

Jotun wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2026 4:33 amFirst and foremost, congratulations on chapter 400!Seriously, the Soviet countermeasures (sending Alpha Group and other SOF plus certainly paratroopers for a bit of regime change) are so obvious and predictable that I would be surprised and disappointed if the Polish armed forces did not set a trap for just that operation. And the Polish government being anywhere BUT in Warsaw.

No comment.

Jotun wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2026 4:33 amConcerning the situation in Finland, I, too, think that the rest of NATO would be hard pressed to send more than symbolic support.

To be honest, they and the Swedes to seem to be managing quite well.

Paul Nuttall wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2026 8:46 amOh boy.....

Makes me think that maybe Dr. Sam Beckett leaped into someone at the right time?

Nik_SpeakerToCats wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2026 2:11 pmOh, and perhaps a parallel purge of KGB etc who failed to notice this political tsunami developing...

We can but hope...

drmarkbailey wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2026 2:30 amClemenceau might be easier to restore to limited service than you think,<SNIP>

Now, why did I guess that you would know that, Mark?
Thanks for that very useful information. It will come in very handy.

So will we have to wait 21 years until we reach chapter 800 going by your 21 year progress to advance 35 days into the war.

Lordroel wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2026 6:06 pm So will we have to wait 21 years until we reach chapter 800 going by your 21 year progress to advance 35 days into the war.

Please no. I'd be five years into retirement by then

Jotun wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2026 6:28 pm

Lordroel wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2026 6:06 pm So will we have to wait 21 years until we reach chapter 800 going by your 21 year progress to advance 35 days into the war.

Please no. I'd be five years into retirement by then

If he keeps up posting 10 chapters per year, while at the same time not getting a burnout ore becoming this version of George R. R. Martin and doing very long on writing new chapters, then we get to Chapter 800 by the year 2040, give some years.

Bernard Woolley wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2026 5:51 pm

drmarkbailey wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2026 2:30 amClemenceau might be easier to restore to limited service than you think,<SNIP>

Now, why did I guess that you would know that, Mark?
Thanks for that very useful information. It will come in very handy.

You just ensured her getting a surface gunfire action.

Lordroel wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2026 5:27 pm Assume the old free polish soldiers living in the UK who fought during World War II are too old to restart a new Free Polish Army to aid the Poles at home.

Old is certainly the word! The youngest would be in their mid-70s. Even their children would be in their 60s. When it comes to their grandchildren, it’s the law of diminishing returns combined with assimilation. The 2nd generation people, like me, are British.

The British-Polish community would seek to provide moral support.