History, Politics And Current Affairs

Commonwealth Battalion Group is a Canadian lead battlegroup made up from Canada 9 Canadian Brigade Group since all of the regulars are in Germany?

Eaglenine2 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 18, 2025 7:37 pm Commonwealth Battalion Group is a Canadian lead battlegroup made up from Canada Reserve Forces since all of the regulars are in Germany?

IIRC, yes. It's in the story. But other than an "Anglo-Belizean composite company" to be attached, I don't recall if the battalion was further fleshed out.

James1978 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 18, 2025 5:11 pm Thanks for checking on that.

Say, were you the person who wrote the Brazilian Navy ORBAT? Is there any chance you still have that sitting around?

You're welcome.

Yes, it was me, and no, I don't have it because I never wrote that in a file - I wrote it all in the reply window, in one sitting(took me some two hours to do it, IIRC). I can try to rebuild it(I kind of remember most of it), but it would take some time.

Jotun wrote: ↑Sat Oct 18, 2025 6:03 pm I just looked at the general area (Venezuelan-Guyanan border, Brazilian-Venezuelan border) on Google Earth, and the conditions one has to face there even without having to fight a damn war, are mind-blowing. There are lots of places I'd rather fight in...all of them.

Yeah I've looked at that area too in regards to the threats to Guyana. 'Hellish' is an understatement.

Gral:

As for M Parnaíba, big problem with sending her: there is no connection between the Paraguay Basin and the Amazon Basin. She would have to go down all the way to the River Plate, then go up the coast to get to the Orinoco.

Simply not a problem in any way, shape or form. Just use a flo-flo to carry them all in one load.

As many riverine and smaller craft as you want can simply be moved, and very quickly, aboard something like Mighty Servant 1. Bring them to a point, load and go. They will need commercial river steamers to move cargo on the Orinoco, so pick up Parnaiba at the Plate then pick up the rest at Macapa. Things like tourist ferries are your barracks, providing cooked meals, shelter and such, steamers do cargo work, moving vehicles & supplies etc

Navy will need to send their river hospital ships anyway, so why not send Parnaiba?

If the Venezuelans are not occupying Georgetown, fly in an immediate force to secure it (day 'as-soon-as-humanly-possible') and get the Navy there ASAP. There's your campaign logistics base. Good port, good cold storage, international airport, good power infrastructure.

Looking at the maps, yes, the Brazilians have to advance up T-10. No argument, that threat axis is critical. But the logistics there are just horrible. You can really only do this along the coast using Brazilian seapower to carry the logistics. I'll be blunt, a two-lane highway that long cannot support a main thrust. Maybe a light (very light) brigade. Maybe. And not if it rains a lot. Or if one man takes a couple of potshots at the odd truck now and then.

Doing it by sea with the port facilities at Georgetown? Easy. Fuel, one handy-size product tanker, normal DWT say 35,000 tons (there's 35,000 tons of fuel) and half a dozen little coastal tankers (200-500 tons DWT) to dist it forward from the tanker, anchored in the stream at Georgetown. That's all CIVMIL, no military assets needed until the little coastal tanker pumps the diesel into Army's bladders ashore - and you can do that on a riverbank.

Cheers: Mark

How many flo-flos are available by D+14-ish? In South America?

No argument on securing Georgetown. Taking a look at a population density map - if you can keep an invader on the western bank of the Essequibo Rover, most of the population of Guyana is safe.

But I'm not sure about Georgetown as a logistics base. As far as I can tell, there are no real roads between Georgetown and Venezuela. It's mostly jungle and marsh/swamp. And Brazil does not posses "US in Vietnam" levels of helicopters to move significant forces around by air.

Even if you put troops ashore in the Delta Amacuro state at the mouth of the Orinoco River, then what? There are still no real roads, so you're conducting a riverine campaign with about 250km by water from the river mouth to Guyana City. Even if we denude the rest of Brazil of military riverine craft, will it be enough?

If the allies want to invade Venezuela beyond what Brazil is doing to try to coerce them to abandon their invasion of Guyana, and possibly effect regime change, then they probably need to talk Colombia (the second largest army in the Americas) into joining the war. But even that assumes that FARC and all the other narco-communists guerillas in the region haven't gone active.

I can believe that Brazil got to the outskirts of Guyana City. I just think most of their invasion force is tied down securing Troncal-10 and they are hoping that the Venezuelan Army won't be able to get meaningful forces on the southern bank of the Orinoco to face them. I don't think Venezuela can pull together the logistics to eject the Brazilian Army, but they can probably force a stalemate on the current lines.

Hi James

Won't be D*14, be more like D+5 when they are staffing this.

And almost certainly a couple will be available. The South American offshore oil and gas industry is building up at his date. (#2 son's PhD is in this field so I asked him)

I have to explain a bit. Within 15 years from its establishment in 1953, Petrobras explored onshore Paleozoic cratonic and marginal rift basins, and obtained some small to medium petroleum discoveries in fault-block traps. In the 1970s, Petrobras developed seismic exploration technologies and several hydrocarbon accumulation models, for example, turbidite sandstones, allowing important discoveries in shallow waters, e.g. the Namorado Field and Enchova fields. Guided by these models/technologies, significant discoveries, e.g. the Marlim and Roncador fields, were made in deepwater post-salt in the Campos Basin. In the early 21st century, the advancements in theories and technologies for pre-salt petroleum system, carbonate reservoirs, hydrocarbon accumulation and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) logging stimulated a succession of valuable discoveries in the Lower Cretaceous lacustrine carbonates in the Santos Basin, including the world-class ultra-deepwater super giant fields such as Tupi (Lula), Mero and Buzios.

OK, what that means is that by 2000 the Brazilian deep offshore exploration market was very busy - so the flo-flo's were very busy moving semi-submersibles (Deepwater Horizon was a semisub configured for this sort of work) in and around that market. IIRC there's been flo-flo's based in the Gulf of Mexico for this trade for a very long time.

Secondly, that market is going to freeze when insurance rates go up, probably in the month or two before things blow up in '05. Offer war risk insurance and you'll have your ship.

I don't really understand your questions - I think that it's a matter of force densities. This place reminds me of northern Australia, big, no infrastructure, bad climate, little population. A battalion AO can be as big as Belgium in northern Australia and this area is no different. In Europe you can throw a rock across a battalion AO by comparison. A couple of companies will run the riverine campaign, and really, 250km is a short distance. If there's no roads and you don't have helicopters, and there's waterways, then the waterways are the roads after all!

How do you think the Venezuelans are moving and supplying their troops except by watercraft?

Log. Let's look at a small load, 1000 tons over 500 miles. Half fuel, half supplies. By sea that's 2 small ships, 16 men, 2 days, done. Cost maybe 10 tons of fuel. Trucks, need 100 x 10 ton capacity army trucks in convoy (or 50 20-ton civvy trucks unconvoyed if it's 100% safe) 200 men (50) 4-5 days (2-3 days) and a lot more fuel.

Cheers: Mark

drmarkbailey wrote: ↑Sun Oct 19, 2025 3:01 am I don't really understand your questions - I think that it's a matter of force densities. This place reminds me of northern Australia, big, no infrastructure, bad climate, little population. A battalion AO can be as big as Belgium in northern Australia and this area is no different. In Europe you can throw a rock across a battalion AO by comparison. A couple of companies will run the riverine campaign, and really, 250km is a short distance. If there's no roads and you don't have helicopters, and there's waterways, then the waterways are the roads after all!

How do you think the Venezuelans are moving and supplying their troops except by watercraft?

Log. Let's look at a small load, 1000 tons over 500 miles. Half fuel, half supplies. By sea that's 2 small ships, 16 men, 2 days, done. Cost maybe 10 tons of fuel. Trucks, need 100 x 10 ton capacity army trucks in convoy (or 50 20-ton civvy trucks unconvoyed if it's 100% safe) 200 men (50) 4-5 days (2-3 days) and a lot more fuel.

I think we might be talking past each other.

Quick review of the timeline for everyone.

The Last War wrote:24 April 2005 (D+2)
US intelligence picks up indications that Venezuela will attack the Panama Canal. The US informs Panama that it is invoking its treaty rights to defend the Panama Canal and will be deploying forces. [Ch.60]

25 April 2005 (D+3)
US forces depart by air from CONUS for Panama. It’s a race to see who reaches Panama first. [Ch.73]

26 April 2005 (D+4)
The first wave of US forces parachute into Panama – landing at Albrook Airport , the former Howard Air Force Base, and Tocumen International Airport. Unfortunately, Venezuelan paratroops and rangers beat them to Albrook and Howard, and inflicted casualties on the 1/75th and 3/75th Rangers.
Simultaneously, escorting USAF F-15s engaged Venezuelan Su-30s on their way to attack Panama Canal installations. [Ch.82]

Later in the day, SAC B-1 and B-52 units prepare to launch cruise missile strikes against Venezuelan air bases, while other B-1s will mine Venezuelan harbors to forestall any attempted amphibious operations against the Netherlands Antilles. [Ch.83]

3 May 2005 (D+11)
President Chavez gives the order to invade Guyana to “recover our lost territory in Guyana Esequiba.” [Ch.240]

4 May 2005 (D+12)
Venezuelan forces cross the border into Guyana. Advanced US elements operating with Guyanese forces alert SOUTHCOM, which decides to send elements of the Panama garrison to Guyana. [Ch.265]

Brazil declares war on Venezuela and the USSR. [Ch.267]

6 May 2005 (D+14)
Brazilian Army forces crossed the border into Venezuela shortly after midnight local time. It has been reported that there has been fierce resistance from Venezuelan regular and militia forces. [Ch.289]

Brazilian Special Forces secure an air field in rebel held western Cuba. Once the airhead is secure, the Brazilian Airborne Brigade flew in, followed by the Brazilian Airmobile Brigade and the Mexican Airborne Brigade. [Ch.292]

9 May 2005 (D+17)
Brazilian A-1A attack aircraft begin operating from the Brazilian-Mexican airhead in Cuba. Brazilian Marines are in transit. [Ch.312]

24 May 2005 (D+32)
Brazilian forces have reached the suburbs or Ciudad Bolívar and Ciudad Guayana in Venezuela. [Ch.387]

For their invasion of Guyana, I think Venezuela is mostly stuck with ATV, mules, and maybe 4x4s. Now initially, I did assume that Venezuela was making significant use of the rivers for their logistics. I mean it makes sense. The Cuyuni River runs back to El Dorado in Venezuela, which intersects with Troncal 10. And the Cuyuni River runs into the Essequibo River. Sounds perfect.

Then I found this map. The little red stars all represent rapids or falls. If that's accurate, that appears to make things more complicated.

There is a "road" that runs from Tumeremo to Bochinche.
And about half way between Temeremo and El Dorado, a road branches off Troncal 10 and goes to San Martin de Turumban.
As best as I can tell, that's it. And inside Guyana, there are no roads from Georgetown to the border.

So if I had to make a guess, I think the Venezuelan invasion had at best three axis of advance:
1) From San Martin de Turumban and generally following the Cuyuni River.
2) From Bochinche in a generally easterly direction.
3) Possibly a third line of advance along the coast and coastal rivers.

So I think the initial Allied idea was correct. Let the Venezuelan invasion force hack their way through sparsely occupied highlands, jungle, and swamp and get nowhere very slowly. By the time they can threaten Georgetown, Allied reinforcements have dug in and the Venezuelans are at the end of very tenuous supply lines. But before that could happen, Brazil invaded Venezuela.
So first off, how many Venezuelan troops even got that far into Guyana before Brazil invaded Venezuela?
And in the 18 days it's taken the Brazilian Army to get to where they are, how many Venezuelan troops were able to withdraw before their LOCs back to Troncal 10 got cut off by Brazil? It seems possible that whatever Venezuelan forces are still in Guyana are stuck in place and trying to live off the land. Can't go forward, can't go back.
Now back to Marks' question.
If Brazil's Airborne Brigade, Airmobile Brigade, and their Marines are in Cuba, then seizing the Orinoco River Delta in Venezuela and then both banks all the way to Guyana City, Venezuela seems . . . not something that can happen quickly. I have doubts about Brazil's ability to support the logistics of both their overland invasion or Venezuela and their Cuban Expeditionary Force AND stage an amphibious invasion in the Orinoco Delta region on top of that.

gral wrote: ↑Sat Oct 18, 2025 11:33 am Just checked it, and it turns out I was recalling it wrong. The Branco River isn't navigable up to Boa Vista(there's a waterfall in the way); at best you theoretically could get up to Vista Alegre and drive down(up?) 152 km to Boa Vista on BR-174. The surer(only) way is to go all the way from Manaus on the same road. At least Manaus can accomodate some big ships; last month the Brazilian Navy sent NDCC Almirante Saboia, the former RFA Sir Beldivere, there(BTW, the Brazilian Armed Forces since last year have been taking measures to reinforce Roraima they never really did before; some of that would be done in this TL before the War starts, for the same reasons it's being done now).

Late correction here: managed to find some maps which cleared the situation a bit more. Last real port(and even then it's not much more than a single robust pier for unloading ships, no cranes or any other unloading infrastructure) is at Caracaraí(only port city at Roraima State), which is some 141 km(about 88 miles) from Boa Vista on the BR-174 highway(paved road, one lane per direction). After that it's 220 km(about 138 miles) to the border crossing at Pacaraima.

Could a logistic center be set up at Caracaraí to feed an offensive? Tentative(very tentative) yes, but it would take some time to do it. Local infrastructure really is lacking. At least it would be better than trying to go through the Orinoco backdoor(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casiquiare_canal), as the Negro River isn't really navigable for anything other than a canoe past São Gabriel da Cachoeira, and when you finally reach the Orinoco, it would be hundreds of kilometres upriver of anywhere important.