New on the origin of the Goths

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Micael
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New on the origin of the Goths

Post by Micael »

Spoiler, they came from here in Scandinavia. Or at least that’s where essentially all signs are pointing to now.
A barbarian tribe’s mythic origin story is true, ancient DNA reveals
Skeletons across Europe confirm the Goths surged out of Scandinavia before sacking Rome

In 551 C.E., 150 years after the Goths joined other tribes to bring down the mighty Roman empire, a Gothic historian named Jordanes spun a dramatic tale about the origin of his people: “The Goths are said to have come … from a hive of races or a womb of nations,” sailing in a trio of ships 5 centuries earlier from a frozen island called Scandza. After landing on the southern shores of the Baltic Sea, he wrote, they swept south, all the way to the Black Sea.

Since the middle of the 20th century, most historians have filed Jordanes’s story firmly in the “fantasy” section. At most, they argued, the Gothic language and culture were spread by a few elite warriors from Scandinavia or northern Poland who united tribes already living on the fringes of the Roman empire.

Genetic studies of Bronze and Iron Age skeletons across Europe, from Poland all the way to Spain, now suggest there was more than a kernel of truth to Jordanes’s tale. As the Goths’ language and culture spread, so did their genes. “What the genotyping is showing is what the ancient sources report, and what late–20th century historiography has been working very hard to deny,” says Yale University historian Noel Lenski, who was not involved in the work. “We have to … admit the sources knew more than we thought they did.”

The findings challenge decades of scholarship that played down the importance of migration and emphasized the spread of language and culture between settled populations. “This data is turning the dial back, to more ‘people moving,’” says Peter Heather, a historian at King’s College London.

Beginning in the second century C.E., warlike tribes identified as Goths, Getae, Gotones, or Guthones battled, and often defeated, Roman armies on the empire’s eastern frontiers. In 251 C.E., Roman Emperor Decius, his son, and most of his army were killed fighting Goths in what is today Romania, in one of the empire’s greatest defeats. A century and a half later, an army led by Visigoths, a Goth tribe, sacked Rome itself. Plunder from the conflict spread from the Black Sea to northern Poland, pointing to a wider Gothic world united by culture and language—but also, it now appears, by ancestry.

One study, a sweeping survey of skeletal DNA from across Europe published today in Nature, identifies a major shift in ancestry in northern Poland by the time the first Goth-style artifacts appeared there around 50 C.E. The shift, toward what look like Iron Age Swedish lineages, suggests a bevy of migrants—not just a few influential visitors—brought Gothic culture and their now-vanished Germanic language to Northern Europe, though when that happened is unclear. “We see that there’s almost complete population turnover,” says co-author Guus Kroonen, a linguist at Leiden University. “That’s a very strong indication that there was initially a large migration from Scandinavia to Poland.” The shift coincides with linguistic models that show Gothic split off from its sister languages about 2000 years ago.

Research published earlier this year in Genome Biology shows a strong Scandinavian genetic component persisted later, and farther south, in Goth-style burials in southeastern Poland between 175 and 350 C.E. The pattern is consistent with Jordanes’s claims that the Goths moved south toward modern-day Ukraine after their arrival. Another paper, published in Cell last month, reports a strong current of Northern European ancestry was still present in the barbarian ranks when migrating tribes, including the Suebi and Visigoths, conquered Spain 500 years later.

The genetic evidence supports the idea that migration can spread language and culture far and wide—but it’s not the only way. Traditions and tongues can catch on with neighboring tribes, even if their originators’ genes don’t accompany them. The tale of the Goths “was a two-chapter story,” Kroonen says. “In the beginning, there was a big migration, but later they started mingling, and the transmission of Gothic was more of a cultural nature.”

The burials in southern Poland show this process in action. Researchers led by University of Warsaw archaeogeneticist Martyna Molak found that half of the people they sequenced had Scandinavian-like ancestry. “That’s a very substantial migrant component,” Heather says.

Yet Goth-style grave goods were also buried with genetic outsiders. A pair of burials, identified as father and daughter by long chunks of identical shared DNA, was revealing: The father had Scandinavian ancestry, but his daughter’s DNA showed her mother descended from an unrelated group from outside the region. “You can see some people came from quite far away and interbred with a local population that had primarily Scandinavian ancestry,” Molak says.

As the Goths barreled south toward the Black Sea and west toward Rome in later centuries, “the mode changes from mass migration to elite transfers” of culture, says Joscha Gretzinger, an archaeogeneticist at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology (EVA) who wasn’t involved in the recent research. “At some point, there’s an elite carrying the tradition that preserves the Gothic language within larger confederacies.”

The Cell paper reports traces of that elite group as far west as the Iberian Peninsula. In Gothic and Germanic-style burials across Spain, about one-third of the skeletons had Northern European ancestry, says EVA archaeogeneticist Pablo Carrión, a co-author of the paper. “It’s demonstrated pretty clearly these migrants can trace their roots back to this Northern European or Scandinavian region.”

But the numbers appear to have been small, Carrión says. “To have the momentum for linguistic change, you need greater numbers.” Within a few centuries, almost all traces of Gothic rule—along with their Germanic language—vanished. Their cultural legacy lingers on the peninsula today in a handful of Germanic loan words, including some connected to conflict and conquest, like the Spanish for “bandit,” “helmet,” and “truce.”

The new support for the Goths’ origin story doesn’t mean all their tales should be taken at face value. Jordanes’s opus, Origin and Deeds of the Getae, includes some fantastical anecdotes unlikely to be confirmed by ancient DNA, including that the Goths conquered Troy and met an Egyptian pharaoh. “It’s entirely plausible he is making things up or gluing things together to fit the myth of the Gothic past,” Lenski says. “But he’s using ancestral memory as a glue. The Scandinavian piece could be a part of the cultural memory of the Gothic past that has historical accuracy.”
https://www.science.org/content/article ... na-reveals

Here’s the article in Nature:
Abstract
Germanic languages, including German, English, Frisian, Dutch and the Nordic languages, are widely spoken across northwest Europe. However, the timing and location of the prehistoric arrival of this Indo-European linguistic phylum, as well as its Iron Age diversification, remain contentious1,2,3. Here, by sequencing 712 ancient human genomes and analysing them alongside 4,009 previously published genomes, we identify an archaeologically elusive population that entered Sweden, likely from the Baltic region, by around 4000 BP. This population, which became widespread throughout Scandinavia by 3500 BP, offers a potential vector for the introduction of the Germanic language group to Scandinavia4,5,6, some 800 years later than traditionally assumed7,8,9. Following the Late Iron Age disintegration of Germanic into its descendant languages, we observe by 1650 BP a southward migration from southern Scandinavia into presumed Celtic-speaking areas, including present-day Germany, Poland and the Netherlands. During the subsequent Migration Period (1575–1375 BP), we see this ancestry among Germanic-speaking Anglo-Saxons in Britain and Langobards in southern Europe. In the same time period, we identify a related large-scale northward back-migration into Denmark and southern Sweden, coinciding with the rise of Danish influence and the linguistically documented emergence of Old Norse. These findings indicate that multiple migrations and geographical locations had a major role in the arrival and formation of Germanic, as well as in its divergence into historical and modern descendant languages.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09064-1
Calder
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Re: New on the origin of the Goths

Post by Calder »

Is it bad that when I read the title I was thinking of the social movement instead of the historical one? Laugh. My youngest daughter is currently going through this. Thankfully, it is more the clothing and style than the attitude.
Micael
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Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:50 am

Re: New on the origin of the Goths

Post by Micael »

Calder wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2026 4:57 pm Is it bad that when I read the title I was thinking of the social movement instead of the historical one? Laugh. My youngest daughter is currently going through this. Thankfully, it is more the clothing and style than the attitude.
Hehe, it is probably closer to most peoples’ minds than the historical ones.

—————————————
One of the authors of the paper, Hugh McColl points out this interesting aspect as well:
In the Germanic paper, we found a previously unknown migration ~4,000–3,500 years ago, likely entering Sweden from across the Baltic and spreading throughout Scandinavia. This provides a new model for how the ancestor of English + German languages may reached Scandinavia.

This ancestry later spread into northern Germany and appears among Anglo-Saxons in England and Langobards in Italy. Surprisingly, ~1,500 years ago people moved back into southern Scandinavia, before the Viking Age, helping explain links with England
https://x.com/hmcccoll/status/211802153 ... JqF0Q&s=46
CB1485BE-59C2-4658-BB9A-0628BE67A536.jpeg
The same authors also have a paper on the Celtic languages out now:
Abstract
Celtic languages are today restricted to Europe’s Atlantic fringes but were widely spoken across the continent during the Iron Age1,2,3. How Celtic achieved this early distribution remains contested4, with alternative archaeological and linguistic models proposing different homelands and dispersal routes. Here we analyse genome-wide data from 4,587 ancient individuals, focusing on Bronze and Iron Age Europe, to test the extent to which these models fit reconstructed demographic histories. We identify three main processes shaping European population structure that are relevant to the Celtic dispersal. First, the arrival of Steppe-related ancestry with Bell Beaker-associated groups after around 4400 BP (calibrated years before present or 1950 CE) across the region in which Celtic and related languages were later spoken. Second, a movement from southwestern Europe into Britain during the Bronze Age (3800–3200 BP), consistent with scenarios in which Celtic formed along the Atlantic façade. Third, a westward expansion of ancestry related to Late Bronze Age Knovíz–Urnfield-associated populations from eastern central Europe (3200–2800 BP), affecting France, the British Isles, northeastern Iberia and Italy and later associated with Iron Age Hallstatt and La Tène contexts5,6,7,8. Although all three movements have parallels with proposed models, we argue that the final movement, from eastern central Europe, is most parsimonious for the spread of Celtic. Although human history does not necessarily follow a parsimonious trajectory9 and language shifts need not track genetic change, these results delimit the demographic scenarios that are plausible for the emergence of Celtic in prehistoric Europe.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11198-9
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Micael
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Re: New on the origin of the Goths

Post by Micael »

This is a short, four and a half minutes long, video by the authors which covers some of the conclusions from the studies:
https://youtu.be/gyxAROOa10U?is=0hdAb6i-kM12KeuZ

As is to a degree being proposed in the comments there, it does open up for some additional conclusions about how Germanic formed and took on its later state. In effect that we have a chain of events wherein a indo-european tongue moves into Sweden from the east, develops into palaeo-Germanic, then spreads southwards where it develops into another variant, then much later on a derivative of this southern variant spreads back north mainly from the Denmark/Northern Germany area, and this is what then effectively generates the surviving variant that becomes Old Norse. Also that this earlier variant that spread southwards was possibly (more or less) what we could refer to as (very early) Gothic.

That’s quite an interesting notion, and it could also help to explain something I have been wondering about for a long time: Why do we see such a dramatic linguistic change so quickly, attested by runestones and such in Sweden, around 500-600 AD? Because while linguists and archeologists have tried to explain this by various internal means it has always seemed to me that it was a too rapid and thorough of a change to be fully explained solely through internal mechanisms. But if it instead was another variant of Germanic that had already been “cooking” for a much longer time period down south, and then moved in and supplanted (or probably more like merged with) the old variant that would make more sense. We have another later dramatic change to (by then) Swedish around 1300-1400 AD which we know exactly why that was, it was from a strong influence of middle low German, with around 40% of the vocabulary and significant parts of the grammar being taken from there once all was said and done.* That the preceding big change ~800 years earlier was also a result of the same type of mechanism, that is to say another Germanic variant coming in from the south and affecting the language, makes a good deal of sense.

*An illustrative example often given of the scale of this change is that a Swede from the 1500’s would hardly be able to communicate at all with someone from the 1200’s, but could with effort communicate fairly well with someone from the present day. Roughly the same applies to the earlier change as well.
Micael
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Re: New on the origin of the Goths

Post by Micael »

A substack article on the papers included this illustrative graphic, which I think is very helpful in understanding the developments inferred from the analysis:
12D8F1AD-5DBA-4674-860D-53BE6B8D6A92.jpeg
Schematic synthesis of the Germanic paper. The earliest Baltic-linked source is unresolved, and its arrow is dashed. The shaded Proto-Germanic region marks an approximate linguistic setting rather than a sampled population boundary. Outward movements had different sources: Sweden for the Wielbark-associated group, and northern Germany or southern Jutland for the main West Germanic-associated movements. The onset of the northward movement is inferred at about 400–500 CE; its genetic effects are clear by about 700 CE. Routes and widths are illustrative and do not quantify migration size. Modern borders aid orientation. Tap or click to enlarge.
Full article by Davide Piffer:
https://substack.davidepiffer.com/p/the ... -of-celtic
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Micael
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Re: New on the origin of the Goths

Post by Micael »

Tidsdjupet has put out a video focused on the part of the conclusion from the Germanic article which indicates that Old Norse developed in Northern Germany/Denmark and then spread north to replace the pre-existing Germanic variant there (which was probably essentially what we know as Gothic). He raises some points in support of this, such as how it would explain why Old Norse was so homogenous so late, and how scholars have suggested that on early runestones in Sweden we can potentially see an East Germanic dialect. But also points out a potential problem, that if Old Norse developed in Northern Germany/Denmark we would expect to see strong connections with known Germanic variants from around there such as Ingvaeonic/Istvaeonic, but that we don’t.

A possible solution to adress the latter that I can think of could be if Old Norse had its initial development in a relatively small geographical area with natural delineations around it, before the big spread of it through Scandinavia. So it could be that the Danish islands is more specifically the origin point. Since the article also connects the spread of Old Norse with the spread of the Odin cult I would look specifically at Odense (Odin’s Island) in Denmark, it has been suggested before that this island was a place of importance in the Odin cult. Snorre Sturlasson hints at something like that in the Ynglingasaga as well, as he describes the arrival of Odin and the other gods to Uppsala as having gone through Odense. That may be a distorted memory of a real event.

Furthermore, the introduction of a new primary god into the pantheon from the south (from the Swedish perspective) could explain a bit of a mystery we have in that there’s relatively few place names named for Odin here, but a lot named for Ull/Ullir, which is a god that barely figures at all in the sagas. Scholars have long suggested that Ull was the chief deity in Sweden earlier on and that he was replaced by Odin later. Also Thor and Tyr is another mystery, Tyr’s name stems from the same “sky god” root as chief gods in other Indo-European religion branches, ie Zeus, Jupiter etc. But he plays a small role in the sagas and performs similar acts to Thor in Ragnarök. A similar explanation could then be that Thor was the Tyr variant that developed down south and which then later mostly supplanted Tyr in the religion across Scandinavia later on.

Video by Tidsdjupet:
https://youtu.be/xgmjgsvDP58?is=Qdpdp8UdIslPo9PR
Simon Darkshade
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Re: New on the origin of the Goths

Post by Simon Darkshade »

Utterly fascinating stuff, Micael. The idea of ancestral memory linking myth and history is tantalising.
Belushi TD
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Re: New on the origin of the Goths

Post by Belushi TD »

Agreed. I've not had a lot of time the last couple years to read and weigh in on long articles like this, but I am quite intrigued and hope that research in the Don area is able to be done at some point....

Thanks
Belushi TD
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