Youtube Commentator Lei
Youtube Commentator Lei
Recommend anyone who is interesting in Red China today to watch Lei's Real Talk on Youtube. She seems to know what she is talking about.
The USA is back and you aint seen nothin yet 
Re: Youtube Commentator Lei
She seems to think that Xi is hanging on by a thread with respect to his control of the military. I'm not sure how much of that I believe. Could be Xi is trying to weed out the marginal loyalists by getting them to act prematurely.
Paul
Paul
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Belushi TD
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Re: Youtube Commentator Lei
How old is Xi? I sort of seem to remember he was having some health issues back a year or three?
Belushi TD
Belushi TD
Re: Youtube Commentator Lei
According to Wikipedia he was born in June of 1953, so not that old.
Paul
Paul
Re: Youtube Commentator Lei
Paul my crystal ball is very, very murky so I certainly would NOT disagree with you.
However, I do strongly believe she knows what she is talking about, at least where the ChiComms an today's PRC is concerned.
This very brief Bio may help you understand where she is coming from.
"With my Chinese background and expertise in finance, censorship, and life under a totalitarian government, I bring a unique perspective to analyzing and interpreting geopolitics, with a particular focus on China and Sino-U.S. relations. Being bilingual and having grown up in China gives me a distinct advantage in accurately interpreting Chinese politics and economic affairs with native knowledge."
The USA is back and you aint seen nothin yet
Re: Youtube Commentator Lei
Paul I found this article that seems to agree with some of Lei's observations. Please note it is dated 2023.
Scenario of a collapse of the CCP
By James J.Y. Hsu 許正餘
The ultimate end of a situation in which communists are in charge of a capitalist economy is economic depression, with China’s economic woes the prime example. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime has suspended monthly reports on youth unemployment, which had previously been at a record high, going beyond 20 percent and rising.
It is often joked about in academic circles that when a national laboratory has made a great discovery, the institution will quickly call a news conference to announce it to the world, but when the research has been a total failure, the institution will keep it under wraps.
The manifestation of China’s economic depression would most likely cause the demise of the CCP, not dissimilar to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Less scientific, more metaphysical predictions came from the prophecies of ancient Chinese mystical books, Iron Plate Diagrams (鐵板圖) and Tui Bei Tu (推背圖).
Both books appear to predict that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) will be the last emperor of the CCP, brought down by his subordinates. Many of his subordinates have been “forced to disappear,” including his foreign minister, defense minister and some high-ranking military officers. Some political observers think Xi actually believes the prophecies of the two books.
A military coup, a political coup and a civil revolt are the three potential major crises Xi faces.
It has been quipped that Chinese military leaders understand it is easier to attack the Zhongnanhai — the center of power in Beijing — than to cross the Taiwan Strait, just as a Russian counterpart found it easier to attack Moscow than invade Kyiv.
In immature democracies, military coups often occur, and they even happen in more mature democracies. There are even some instances of political coups by high-ranking officials.
However, these are the power games of ruling elites and would not grant democracy to the people. Worse, coup leaders are, more often than not, more interested in extending their power beyond the “status quo” at the expense of constitutions and democracy.
The CCP has already gone through several coups, some of them successful, such as Chairman Mao Zedong’s (毛澤東) Cultural Revolution, the overthrow of the gang of four by Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平), and the failed coup of former Chinese minister of defense Lin Biao (林彪).
It would not be surprising to see another coup under Xi’s watch.
In a democratic system, power is already in the hands of the people, so accommodating revolutionary ideas and implementing changes requires a grassroots movement. Short of a popular uprising, China will not become a democratic country anytime soon.
The fact that Xi is afraid of military personnel having unnecessary social contact speaks volumes about how worried he is about a popular uprising combining the power of the military, political elites and the people.
A dilemma in the Qing Dynasty was well noted: “Without enlightening the people, resisting the West will be futile; but educating the people means the imperial system will perish.”
The same dilemma applies to the CCP today.
Not long ago, exiled Chinese dissident Wei Jingsheng (魏京生), one of the most well-known leaders in the Chinese democracy movement, was opposed to Taiwan’s independence. A strong believer in democracy would not stop other people from seeking democracy and happiness. We now find that people in the Chinese democracy movement almost unanimously support democratic Taiwan. They have gone further, proclaiming that Taiwan is free and part of the democratic world, not a part of China.
That indicates that the Chinese democracy movement is mature enough to have gone beyond nationalism and racism.
When the free flow of information is enabled through cell phones with satellite connectivity or otherwise, it could lead to a Berlin Wall moment for the CCP.
The world, especially people in the overseas Chinese democracy movement, are watching and will certainly step in to help Chinese achieve their own dreams of pursuing democracy, liberty, justice and happiness for all.
James J.Y. Hsu is a retired professor of theoretical physics.
I'd appreciate your opinion of this article. Seems Prophetic to me.
In any case we are all living the Chinese most horrible cure "May you live in INTERESTING TIMES"
Scenario of a collapse of the CCP
By James J.Y. Hsu 許正餘
The ultimate end of a situation in which communists are in charge of a capitalist economy is economic depression, with China’s economic woes the prime example. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime has suspended monthly reports on youth unemployment, which had previously been at a record high, going beyond 20 percent and rising.
It is often joked about in academic circles that when a national laboratory has made a great discovery, the institution will quickly call a news conference to announce it to the world, but when the research has been a total failure, the institution will keep it under wraps.
The manifestation of China’s economic depression would most likely cause the demise of the CCP, not dissimilar to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Less scientific, more metaphysical predictions came from the prophecies of ancient Chinese mystical books, Iron Plate Diagrams (鐵板圖) and Tui Bei Tu (推背圖).
Both books appear to predict that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) will be the last emperor of the CCP, brought down by his subordinates. Many of his subordinates have been “forced to disappear,” including his foreign minister, defense minister and some high-ranking military officers. Some political observers think Xi actually believes the prophecies of the two books.
A military coup, a political coup and a civil revolt are the three potential major crises Xi faces.
It has been quipped that Chinese military leaders understand it is easier to attack the Zhongnanhai — the center of power in Beijing — than to cross the Taiwan Strait, just as a Russian counterpart found it easier to attack Moscow than invade Kyiv.
In immature democracies, military coups often occur, and they even happen in more mature democracies. There are even some instances of political coups by high-ranking officials.
However, these are the power games of ruling elites and would not grant democracy to the people. Worse, coup leaders are, more often than not, more interested in extending their power beyond the “status quo” at the expense of constitutions and democracy.
The CCP has already gone through several coups, some of them successful, such as Chairman Mao Zedong’s (毛澤東) Cultural Revolution, the overthrow of the gang of four by Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平), and the failed coup of former Chinese minister of defense Lin Biao (林彪).
It would not be surprising to see another coup under Xi’s watch.
In a democratic system, power is already in the hands of the people, so accommodating revolutionary ideas and implementing changes requires a grassroots movement. Short of a popular uprising, China will not become a democratic country anytime soon.
The fact that Xi is afraid of military personnel having unnecessary social contact speaks volumes about how worried he is about a popular uprising combining the power of the military, political elites and the people.
A dilemma in the Qing Dynasty was well noted: “Without enlightening the people, resisting the West will be futile; but educating the people means the imperial system will perish.”
The same dilemma applies to the CCP today.
Not long ago, exiled Chinese dissident Wei Jingsheng (魏京生), one of the most well-known leaders in the Chinese democracy movement, was opposed to Taiwan’s independence. A strong believer in democracy would not stop other people from seeking democracy and happiness. We now find that people in the Chinese democracy movement almost unanimously support democratic Taiwan. They have gone further, proclaiming that Taiwan is free and part of the democratic world, not a part of China.
That indicates that the Chinese democracy movement is mature enough to have gone beyond nationalism and racism.
When the free flow of information is enabled through cell phones with satellite connectivity or otherwise, it could lead to a Berlin Wall moment for the CCP.
The world, especially people in the overseas Chinese democracy movement, are watching and will certainly step in to help Chinese achieve their own dreams of pursuing democracy, liberty, justice and happiness for all.
James J.Y. Hsu is a retired professor of theoretical physics.
I'd appreciate your opinion of this article. Seems Prophetic to me.
In any case we are all living the Chinese most horrible cure "May you live in INTERESTING TIMES"
The USA is back and you aint seen nothin yet
Re: Youtube Commentator Lei
She could be right. Xi's days may be numbered.
I'm not sure how much change that would bring about in China. Short of a grass roots revolution they are trading one commie for another.
Her talks on the actual population of China are interesting, too. 400 million seems a bit low, and she's relying heavily on Covid deaths to get there, but it could be significantly less than the official 1.4 billion.
That could make a grass roots revolution difficult. Not enough people.
Paul
I'm not sure how much change that would bring about in China. Short of a grass roots revolution they are trading one commie for another.
Her talks on the actual population of China are interesting, too. 400 million seems a bit low, and she's relying heavily on Covid deaths to get there, but it could be significantly less than the official 1.4 billion.
That could make a grass roots revolution difficult. Not enough people.
Paul
Re: Youtube Commentator Lei
watching the video on deaths during covid - I call bs on this one. My inside source says it was difficult but absolutely nothing like the video.
Re: Youtube Commentator Lei
Care to elaborate on your Inside Sources? Most of my "Chinese" business ties were with Taiwan and pre CCP take over of Hong Kong.
The USA is back and you aint seen nothin yet